The economy is at the bottom! What's wrong with these two super Internet celebrity cities?

Text: Kaifeng

When the tide receded, I realized who was swimming naked.

01

A few days ago, the country's two phenomenal Internet celebrity cities have successively disclosed the economic data for the whole year of 2023.

Harbin, which has just embarked on the road to popularity, will have an annual GDP of 557.63 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, ranking at the bottom among major cities in Northeast China, and ranking outside the top 50 in the country in terms of total economic output.

Last year's hottest Internet celebrity city, Shandong Zibo's annual GDP in 2023 will be 456.179 billion yuan, an increase of 5.5% over the previous year, although it outperforms the country, but it is lower than the average level of 6% in Shandong Province.

Why didn't the wealth of the sky finally translate into a strong driving force for economic growth?

Looking at Harbin first, the same in the Northeast, the same Northeast F4, Harbin's economy is not as expected, but Shenyang, Dalian, Changchun, etc. are showing a strong rebound, and the economic ranking in the country continues to rise.

According to the data, the economic growth rate of Shenyang and Dalian both exceeded 6%, and the total GDP reached 812.21 billion yuan and 875.29 billion yuan respectively, pointing to the first trillion city in Northeast China.

Provincial Economic Analysis: The Latest Provincial and Municipal GDP, Who Advances and Who Falls Behind?

Behind this, perhaps Harbin is in the explosive period of the flow economy, the pulling effect of Internet celebrity cities on the economy has not yet been fully reflected, and the strong growth effect of the cultural and tourism economy has yet to be released.

But in fact, in 2023, Harbin will hit a record high in terms of both the total number of tourists and the total tourism income, but the income is far inferior to popularity, which undoubtedly weakens the growth space of the cultural and tourism economy.

According to the data, in 2023, Harbin received a total of 135 million tourists, an increase of 41.4% over 2019, and a total tourism revenue of 169.245 billion yuan, an increase of 7.4% over 2019.

The total number of tourists increased by 41.4%, but the total tourism revenue increased by only 7.4%, which intuitively reflects the embarrassment of the Internet celebrity economy "Wangding is not prosperous".

In fact, Harbin has been developing well in cultural tourism over the years, especially the ice and snow economy, which is unique in the country, attracting tourists from all over the country even during the epidemic.

However, in addition to cultural tourism, Harbin has to face the embarrassment of industrial decline and population loss, which has become the biggest constraint to long-term development.

Harbin used to be a veritable industrial town, with industry accounting for more than half of GDP, but now it is less than 20%, which is not without the characteristics of "de-industrialization" in advance.

In terms of population, as the only major city in Northeast China with a permanent population of more than 10 million, Harbin's population has plummeted from 11 million at its peak, and fell out of the 10 million population club for the first time in 2021.

In any case, Harbin can become a phenomenal Internet celebrity city, which is a good thing for the entire Northeast.

If we can break people's stereotypes about Northeast China, and no longer stay in the traditional perception of old industrial bases, bitter cold places, and Shanhaiguan that cannot be invested, then there are new possibilities for the long-term development of both Harbin and Northeast China.

02

If Harbin is an Internet celebrity city in the ascendant, then why is Zibo, which has experienced a complete Internet celebrity cycle, also less than expected?

According to the data, the annual GDP of Zibo, Shandong Province in 2023 will be 456.179 billion yuan, an increase of 5.5% over the previous year, while the economic growth rate of Shandong Province will be 6.0%.

In contrast, the actual growth rate of Jinan, Qingdao, the two leading cities in Shandong, was 6.1% and 5.9% respectively, while the new trillion-dollar city Yantai was as high as 6.6%.

More analysis of the city's economy: "Top 10 cities by GDP! These cities won"

What is even more surprising is that the biggest support for Zibo's economic growth is still the traditional industry, especially the chemical industry, rather than the service industry, which is directly related to the Internet celebrity economy.

Judging from the data, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in Zibo in 2023 will increase by 8.2% over the previous year, significantly outperforming the province and the country, but the growth rate of the added value of the service industry will only be 4.7%, which is even lower than the average level of Shandong Province.

Zibo is a typical industrial city, with the secondary industry accounting for nearly half of the country, and traditional industries such as chemicals and textiles accounting for 70%, of which the heavy chemical industry accounts for about 70%.

Therefore, the stabilization and improvement of the heavy chemical industry and the continuous implementation of large industrial projects have brought strong support to Zibo's economy, but the service industry, which has high hopes, is lower than expected.

Of course, with the help of the consumption wave driven by barbecue, Zibo's consumption performance is extremely eye-catching, becoming one of the biggest highlights of the economy.

In the past year, the total retail sales of consumer goods in Zibo increased by 9.6% year-on-year, of which the turnover of accommodation and catering above designated size increased by 28.1% and 25.8% respectively.

However, whether it is the accommodation and catering industry or other cultural and tourism industries, the industrial chain is not long, and the pulling effect on the industry is relatively limited.

Of course, it is not a problem that the pull effect on the economy is limited, and it is undoubtedly a great blessing if the income level of the whole people can be greatly increased.

However, revenue is affected by a number of factors and cannot be determined by a single industry.

According to the data, in 2023, the per capita disposable income of Zibo residents will be 47,300 yuan, an increase of 5.4%, lower than the average growth rate of 6.2% in Shandong Province.

Therefore, how to transform the high popularity of the Internet celebrity economy into the pull effect of economic growth, and how to transform the opportunity of the city's popularity into an opportunity for industrial transformation may be the long-term challenges facing Zibo.

03

Internet celebrity city, what's wrong?

In the past year, Internet celebrity cities have shown a blowout trend, from the "entering Zibo to catch up with the roast" set off in Zibo, Shandong, to the strong exit of "village super" and "village BA" in Rongjiang and Taijiang in Guizhou, and then to Jiangmen, Guangdong, where a bowl of pig's foot noodles is on fire, Liuzhou, Guangxi, where "a bowl of snail noodles supports a city", and then to Harbin, where the "pleasing city" is out of the circle, it can be said that a hundred flowers are blooming.

Zibo in Shandong and Harbin in Heilongjiang have exploded successively, allowing countless small and medium-sized cities to see the hope of getting out of the circle overnight, and almost all cities have suffered from "Internet celebrity anxiety".

The emergence of this scene is not so much caused by the overwhelming urban marketing, but rather the concentrated release after three years of the impact of masks.

Even the most common barbecue can become the support of the national carnival, let alone the first ice and snow season in the post-epidemic era, Harbin itself has no lack of historical and cultural heritage and a characteristic ice and snow industry?

Since even little-known cities have the possibility of being in place, this gives all cities something to look forward to.

Almost overnight, the directors of cultural and tourism bureaus in many places went into battle, from "sea tactics", beautiful male schemes to shouting celebrities to go home for endorsements, shooting earthy videos and creating stalks.

For many cities in the throes of economic transformation, they are all eager for the huge exposure effect brought by the Internet celebrity economy, hoping to stimulate economic growth and make the entire city complete the big turnaround without much effort.

However, not to mention that Internet celebrity cities are only a few after all, and the Internet celebrity economy itself is fast-decaying - you sing and I will appear, and each will lead the way for a month or two.

Behind the Internet celebrity economy is the traffic economy, traffic comes and goes quickly, like a flood of beasts when it comes, and it pours thousands of miles when it goes.

Zibo, which has the highest traffic, has only been popular for three or four months, while the popularity of Tianjin diving has lasted for less than a month, and some small and medium-sized cities have been short-lived, and they can't be sustained for even a week or two.

Even if it becomes an Internet celebrity city, it does not mean that the economy can quickly usher in a turnaround.

After all, the cultural tourism industry behind the Internet celebrity economy is more of a icing on the cake for many cities, and without the support of first-class cultural and tourism resources, it may be difficult to create a new pillar industry by relying on the Internet celebrity economy alone.

The real cultural and tourism cities, such as Chengdu, Chongqing, Changsha and Xi'an, do not rely on one or two out of the circle, but on the all-round integration of culture, tourism, catering, performing arts, exhibitions, sports, etc., and combine the cultural and tourism industry with other industries in order to maximize its economic value.

Of course, the reason why major cities are chasing Internet celebrity cities is that in addition to the obvious pull effect brought by the overflowing traffic, they also value the exposure opportunity more as a display stage to attract talents and compete for enterprises.

Whether Internet celebrity cities can stimulate the economy depends on the situation.

For little-known places, becoming an Internet celebrity city is an unprecedented development opportunity, such as Rongjiang and Taijiang in Guizhou, which have created the myth of village BA and village super.

For some cities that have no lack of cultural and tourism heritage and are raised in the depths of the boudoir, Internet celebrity cities also have a multiplier driving effect with half the effort, such as Harbin, which integrates ice and snow economy and exotic customs.

But for the vast majority of cities, there are no cultural and tourism resources, no first-class urban heritage, no unique customs, and the Internet celebrity cities created by hype or heavy money are just a flash in the pan after all.

However, not every city has the potential to become an Internet celebrity city, and not every Internet celebrity city can drive economic growth, and Internet celebrity cities are not a lifesaver for urban transformation.

In addition to Internet celebrities, everything still has to return to the industry, and only when the industry is strong is really strong, whether it is a first- or second-tier city or a third- or fourth-tier city.