At the end of February, the property market will usher in great changes!

Mr. Jiang's exclusive prediction:

Shenzhen may release the purchase restriction on all houses with a lot of more than 120 square meters by the end of February 2024!

Shenzhen is the vane of China's property market, and this round of property market regulation also started from Shenzhen;

The previous rounds of house price increases also started in Shenzhen;

If Shenzhen opens up all the areas of more than 120 square meters, it marks that China's property market will enter a new cycle!

The price of core assets is bound to rise!

Have you noticed that whether it is in the real world or the online world, there are two types of people, one is bearish on housing prices, and the other is bullish on housing prices!

These two types of people speculate on the Internet, which are all in the hearts of the people, people who have bought a house, hope that the house price will rise forever, and those who have not bought a house, hope that the house price, it is best to fall to the price of cabbage, and buy a set of cars yourself!

But I want to tell you that the truth will not be determined by these two types of people, and there are many objective factors for the rise and fall of housing prices.

For example, the population of your city is a net outflow or a net inflow, and for example, what is the location and age of the house you buy? And does the school district housing reform have any impact on your house?

You find that no, every objective factor is not up to us, so there is no point in arguing about the rise and fall of housing prices on the Internet!

01, then in 2024, should I buy a house or sell a house? In this regard, Mr. Jiang gave 3 suggestions

1. For those who have not yet bought a house, you have to think calmly about a question, in the future, are you going to rent a house for the rest of your life, or live in affordable housing, or grit your teeth to buy a commercial house?

If your income is okay, in a first-tier city, you can earn 3-50,000 yuan a month, you don't want to add so much pressure to yourself, you have to pay back more than 20,000 monthly payments every month, you want to rent a house, carefree, okay, then I think this is okay!

However, you can't think about things with static thinking, and you ignore the possibility of rent going up later!

For houses in good locations in big cities, it is an inevitable trend for rents to rise every year, which can be referred to New York, London, Hong Kong, and Tokyo!

A house with a good location actually helps elites save commuting time, in fact, time is also money!

In addition, since inflation is a long-term monetary phenomenon, the income of elites is gradually increasing, and the rent in such a good area is also rising year by year.

Therefore, if you have the ability to buy a house and the monthly payment pressure is not great, I recommend that you still buy a house in a high-quality area in a core city.

Especially in 2024, first-tier cities and strong second-tier cities will definitely introduce more accommodative monetary policies.

For example, reduce the first mortgage of the first house and reduce the social security period, at this time, and the house price has also rebounded a lot in the past two years.

Of course, if you're a risk aversion and don't want to take risks, you can rent all the time.

I just want you to understand that risk and return are directly proportional, and you don't want to take any risk, but you are also passively taking risks.

Of course, more people are actually in big cities, not because they don't want to buy a house, but because they can't afford it, their income is limited, and they have a limited income.

At this time, you don't want to focus on suppressing housing prices, because it won't play any role, what you have to do is to increase your income, not become an Internet troll!

With this time and energy, making more money, learning more, and improving yourself more is the king!

Do you just want to live in affordable housing for the rest of your life? If you go out and ask, how many mothers-in-law are willing to live in affordable housing for their daughters in the future?

In this life, there must always be a goal, but the goal cannot be too low, if the goal is too low, people will become more and more lazy, more and more mediocre!

Ma Yun said that he doesn't care about money, that's because he already has it, and what about you?

2. For the middle class and the rich, it is the king to replace it quickly!

Because the consensus on the value of a city is changing, for example, if you bought 3 houses in Luohu, Shenzhen 20 years ago, the house price has indeed increased many times now.

5,000 yuan a square meter to buy, now it has risen to 70,000 or 80,000 square meters, you live in one set by yourself, and the other two sets collect rent, which is really comfortable!

However, you must also know that the value consensus of a city is changing, and the age of the building is also a risk point!

Twenty years ago, at that time, Luohu was Shenzhen, Shenzhen was Luohu, the absolute city center, but now? The rise of Nanshan and Futian has replaced the status of Luohu back then.

Maybe in your mind, Luohu is used to living and is very convenient, but in the minds of most Shenzhen people, Nanshan and Futian have more development potential and potential energy!

It is impossible for people to live in their own world, no matter how good you are, you can't help but have a consensus on values! Follow the trend to keep your wealth!

Because wealth is a relative concept, don't think that if you have 50 million now, it will be very good, and in another 10 or 20 years, if your wealth does not rise, and other people's wealth rises, your wealth status will not decline!

The water of currency, the waves are resolute, sail against the current, and if you don't advance, you will retreat!

3. It's useless to talk more, and work hard to prosper the country!

In some people's cognition, as long as it is a house that they can't afford, it is a bubble, and these people's thinking has been completely deformed.

As long as he buys a house and makes money, it is an investment, and as long as someone else buys a house and makes money, it is speculation!

In this world, house prices are never decided by the majority, but by the few!

Most people can only rent a house in the future, or live in affordable housing.

Buying a house doesn't make you rich, buying a good house, buying a house that most people can't afford, will have a chance to make your assets appreciate!

02, and 2024 is the key year for you to buy the core assets! Why am I so sure? There are three main reasons!

1. Respect the cycle and law of the property market

From 2021 to 2024, housing prices have fallen for 3 years, and housing prices in first-tier cities and strong second-tier cities have rebounded by about 30%.

If it falls again, then it will trigger a series of financial risks, which is unbearable for everyone, so this round of real estate regulation has reached the limit, and the next will usher in an inflection point!

2024 is the year when the property market bottoms out, and it is also the year when smart people get on the bus.

Most of the people who are aware of it are buying up or not buying down, they must have waited until the house price began to rise, hesitated at first, and finally stood guard at a high position!

After many years, the housing prices in the core sector of Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen have reached 200,000, 500,000, or even 1 million, and you realize that the people who persuaded you to buy a house are not harming you, but the people who persuade you to speculate in stocks and buy funds are cheating you!

2. Imbalance between supply and demand

Shenzhen's housing ownership rate is only 23%, that is, among the 100 Shenzheners, 23 live in commercial housing, and the remaining 77% either live in urban villages, rent houses, or buy small property rights!

Due to the purchase restrictions in first-tier cities and strong second-tier cities, the demand for many people who just need to buy houses has been suppressed.

Once the purchase restriction is lifted, the demand will explode in a concentrated manner, which has recently opened up houses of more than 120 square meters in Guangzhou, and the price has risen immediately!

Several benchmark real estate projects in Tianhe District and Huangpu District have risen by more than 10%, and some real estate prices have even increased by more than 20%!

If Shenzhen lifts the purchase restrictions, I dare not imagine that the housing prices in the core area may rise by more than 40%!

Because houses in first-tier cities are not only bought by people in first-tier cities, but also high-quality assets that the rich people across the country are scrambling to buy!

3. By 2025, purchase restrictions in all cities will be lifted

This prediction is currently being verified, Guangzhou has released houses of more than 120 square meters, outsiders can buy as much as they want, Suzhou has "stripped naked" all the purchase restrictions, yes, you read that right, there are no restrictions!

Chengdu has released all the units of more than 144 square meters, and Mr. Jiang predicts that before the Spring Festival, first-tier cities will introduce greater relaxation policies, of course, the relaxation is gradual, it cannot be so fast, every step is cautious, walking on thin ice!

The decline in housing prices is not good for economic recovery, but once the policy is too loose and the rate of housing price growth is out of control, it will also trigger a financial bubble, which is also bad for the real economy!

The best state is that the policy is slowly loosened, housing prices are slowly rising, economic expectations are slowly improving, and consumption, internal circulation, and exports are getting better and better!

Summary:

No matter what, 2024 will definitely be the year of bottoming.

In another ten years, if you look back, 2024 is indeed the best time to replace real estate and buy first-tier cities and strong second-tier cities!