Director Wang Yi and Sullivan held another low-key and lengthy strategic dialogue in Bangkok on the 26th and 27th. As soon as Sullivan returned to Washington, he immediately released information to the outside world through the platform of the Council on Foreign Relations.
This is Sullivan's comprehensive exposition and outlook on Sino-US relations, and the White House National Security Council even reminded media friends not to miss this speech even before his speech. As soon as Sullivan's speech ended, the White House immediately released the original text of his speech, which shows how much attention the Biden administration attaches to Sullivan's speech.
So, what is the important message that Xiaosha released this time? He himself predicted in his opening remarks: "My purpose today is not to try to announce a new China strategy, but to share with you how we have achieved our China strategy in the past three years behind the scenes, and what we expect in 2024." ”
Before entering the Biden administration, the team in charge of China strategy in the Biden administration, including Sullivan, Campbell, Kangda and others, all retreated to think tanks to study and re-examine US China policy. After entering the government, they are immersed in the analysis of real-world issues such as the latest intelligence. And the China strategy team agrees that China is the only country that has the will to reshape the international order and the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological strength to achieve it. At the same time, they firmly believe that in China's view, "the East is rising, and the West is declining."
Therefore, after the Biden administration took office, they inherited the Trump administration's hard-line approach to China, but at the same time they believed that the Trump-era China policy was too confrontational rather than competitive, and underestimated the value of allies and partners. But the Biden administration does not want to go back to the optimistic assumptions of the Trump administration that prioritized how to avoid friction over pursuing U.S. national interests. As a result, Blinken announced a China strategy centered on "investment, alliance, and competition." Over the past three years, Sullivan has seen itself as fruitful in both investing in the United States itself and strengthening its alliances, and has also created the conditions for more effective diplomacy with China.
"A sustainable China policy is about keeping multiple facts in mind at the same time and reconciling them repeatedly," Sullivan said. We have a clear understanding of the dynamics of the competitive structure in our relations with China. But we are also acutely aware that the United States and China are economically interdependent and have a common interest in resolving transnational problems and reducing the risk of conflict. ”
"The United States realizes that decades of efforts to shape or change China, both overtly and implicitly, have been unsuccessful. We expect China to become a major player on the world stage for the foreseeable future. This means that even if we compete, we must find ways to survive together. “
According to Sullivan, U.S.-China competition does not necessarily lead to conflict, confrontation, or a new Cold War. The United States can take steps to advance the interests and values of its allies and partners while managing competition responsibly. Sullivan believes that this point has been well reflected in the Sino-US relationship in 2023. From the cancellation of Blinken's visit to China in early 2023 due to the unmanned airship incident, to the temporary interruption of high-level exchanges between China and the United States, to the intensive diplomacy after May, and finally to the San Francisco meeting.
Sullivan recalled three long "low-key talks" he had with Wang Yi in third countries. He said that in each round of dialogue, the two sides have gradually reached a point where they can put aside the draft of their speeches and engage in a genuine strategic dialogue.
In May 2023, the two men spoke for two days in Vienna in an attempt to restore some normalcy to relations between the two countries. At that time, they agreed on a rough line for high-level engagement, which is to build on the Bali meeting and achieve a meeting in San Francisco later in 2023. In the following months, a number of Biden cabinets visited China. The purpose of this intensive diplomacy is not to mend relations, but to solve the thorny problems of the day.
In September 2023, the two met again in Malta to chart the course for their meeting in San Francisco. In the following weeks, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer led a bipartisan delegation to China, as did senior Chinese officials. This includes the third bilateral meeting between Sullivan and Wang Yi in Washington in November 2023. All of these meetings were to pave the way for the San Francisco meeting.
In January 2024, the two met in Bangkok, this time to advance the three major outcomes of the San Francisco meeting: anti-drug cooperation, exchanges between the two militaries, and artificial intelligence dialogue.
Of course, Sullivan also talked about unforeseen risks that may arise in diplomatic work, including frictions in the South China Sea and the East China Sea. "The most significant risk will be a crisis in the Taiwan Strait," he noted. Intensive diplomacy is essential to deal with this crisis. Sullivan revealed that after the election in the Taiwan region, Washington, Beijing and other parties are trying to reduce misunderstandings of their intentions, which is part of the reason why there were no major cross-strait incidents after the election. However, risks for the future remain.
So 2024 is the U.S. election year, how will the Biden administration promote Sino-US relations? Sullivan gave his expectations:
- As it has done for the past three years, the United States will continue to act on divisive issues such as human rights. And remain vigilant about Sino-Russian relations and take necessary measures to deal with them.
- Work closely with allies and partners to ensure peace and stability in the South China Sea, East China Sea, and Taiwan Strait.
- We will continue to interact closely with China and cooperate in areas where we share common interests.
The Biden administration says it has no intention of rebuilding outdated structures and mechanisms in the bilateral relationship in the past, and that it will never engage in dialogue for the sake of dialogue. But Sullivan also acknowledges the value of certain working-level consultations, such as counter-narcotics cooperation. In the future, the US will continue to advance cooperation, deepen crisis communication mechanisms, and reduce the risk of conflict. The United States is also ready to coordinate in areas that pose risks, such as climate, health security, macroeconomic stability, and artificial intelligence. From the Red Sea to the Korean Peninsula, the United States is also looking forward to discussions with China.
In the end, Sullivan concludes that all this will not be easy, tensions will always arise, and these are inevitable. One thing is certain: there will always be surprises.
In any case, as the United States enters an election year in 2024, the interaction between China and the United States has not been greatly disrupted, and high-level exchanges are still progressing steadily. Sullivan revealed that soon the two heads of state will speak again.