The financing liquidation has not ended, and A-shares have risen and fallen, evaporating 20 trillion yuan in three years, and they can no longer fall
Last night, some institutions calculated the risk of knocking in snowball products, and there are still 23% of the CSI 500 snowball products below 4700 points, about 55 billion snowballs have not yet been knocked in, and the points are relatively scattered, and the CSI 1000 snowball products have knocked in two-thirds, and there are still 23% of about 36 billion snowballs below 4800 points.
A simple sentence of "there is not much left to knock in, and the impact on the market has basically subsided", on the one hand, it can comfort the market that another mine has been discharged, on the other hand, how many people have lost their money, and we are sad that how much wealth has been evaporated in just one month, which is the cruelty of the capital market.
However, Lei Gangping of Xueqiu products, the risk of liquidation and equity pledge is intensifying. It can be seen that the financing balance of the two cities is falling in a straight line, and the financing balance was nearly 20 billion less yesterday alone. In addition, it is rumored in the market that more than 30% of the equity pledge has reached the liquidation line, and the equity pledge Lei is not a joke, and A shares can no longer bear more risks to be detonated.
Yesterday, we calculated for you, only in January, the GEM index fell from the decline of last year, and the average stock price fell by more than 20%, which is more terrifying than the 2015 stock market crash, second only to the 16-year circuit breaker. The key is that in 15 and 16 years, it has been at a high level, and this time it is the bottom that accelerates the fall, which will destroy the market and the psychology of shareholders to a greater extent.
In the past three years, China's stock market (including Hong Kong) has lost 45 trillion yuan in market value, which is equivalent to the 47 trillion yuan of the country's total retail sales of consumer goods in 2023, which has greatly affected the financial situation of middle-class households. Coupled with the fall in real estate prices, the balance sheets of the entire middle-class households have suffered a huge shock, assets have shrunk sharply, incomes have not increased significantly, and consumption will naturally decline. After consumption declines, the economy will be further sluggish, the stock market and property market will continue to fall, and residents will further save money, which is spiral deflation, so it is not surprising that the CPI did not rise last year.
Against the backdrop of the global stock market rally last year, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks bucked the trend and fell sharply because of the deflationary narrative. We have repeatedly stressed that the expectations of the stock market will be self-fulfilling and reinforced, and it may not be that big of a problem for the economy in the first place, but if the stock market keeps falling and causing a balance sheet recession, it may actually end up running towards the most pessimistic expectations. The Great Depression in the United States in 1929 began with a stock market crash, and I hope that the management can pay attention to the role of the stock market and show its determination to save the market.
Let's take a look at today's blockbuster news:
In the early hours of this morning, the Federal Reserve's January interest rate meeting, the dot plot and Powell's statement were hawkish, the market was expected to cut interest rates in March, but Powell said it was unlikely, and U.S. stocks fell sharply last night.
In fact, we don't think Powell is a hawk, we have been suggesting that the market is too optimistic, the U.S. economy has regained strength as soon as the U.S. 10 bond yield fell last year, the resilience of the U.S. economy and the wealth effect brought by the strength of the U.S. stock market, how can you let the Fed cut interest rates so quickly. If the Fed cuts interest rates in March, the bubble in the U.S. stock market will continue to blow, and the optimism of residents will be high, and then there may really be reinflation, and it will be embarrassing if the bubble bursts before the election.
However, on the bright side, there is a consensus on interest rate cuts, but the uncertainty of when they will cut rates will have less impact on emerging markets.
Caixin announced today that the Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) recorded 50.8, the same as the data in December, and above the boom and bust line for three consecutive months. This is also the first time since June 2021 that the index has been in expansion territory for three consecutive months.
Finally, let's take a look at the disk, today the national team continued to buy again, and then there were spontaneous bottom-buying funds, the gem index once rose more than 2%, but the market confidence was insufficient, the selling pressure increased at noon, and A-shares dived. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.64%, the ChiNext Index rose 1%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.49%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 2.01%. The turnover of the two cities shrank to 0.7 trillion, and more than 4,100 companies still fell, and 99 companies fell to the limit. Northbound funds bought a net of 2.726 billion, and foreign capital as a whole has been buying in the past two weeks, including the national team's vest funds.
We still say the same thing, now is the critical stage of the bargaining chips out of the war, and after surviving the wind and rain, the majority of retail investors must make themselves survive in this war to have the possibility of talking about the long-term.
Risk Warning:
The stock market is risky, investment needs to be cautious, this article does not constitute investment advice, readers need to think independently