Nearly 200 companies fell to the limit, and "Ningwang" rose by nearly 8% and did not hold up the GEM index! How far is the market from stopping the fall?
Reporter: Zhao Yun Editor: Xiao Ruidong
On January 31, the market rose and fell throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 1.48% and losing 2,800 points again, and more than 100 stocks in the two cities fell to the limit. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.95%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.66%.
The three major indexes all closed out of the monthly line for six consecutive days, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling more than 6% this month, the Shenzhen Component Index falling more than 13% this month, the ChiNext Index falling more than 16% this month, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index falling nearly 20% this month.
In terms of sectors, only the publishing sector rose against the trend, while the composite current collector, Beidou navigation, computing power leasing, machine vision and other sectors were among the top decliners.
Overall, individual stocks fell more and rose less, and more than 4,800 stocks in the whole market fell. The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today was 758.2 billion, an increase of 94.5 billion from the previous trading day.
Northbound funds bought a net of 3.701 billion yuan throughout the day, including a net purchase of 758 million yuan in Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and a net purchase of 2.943 billion yuan in Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect.
On the last trading day of January, A-shares did not usher in the "Great Miracle Day", but instead saw a stronger emotional decline.
Many sectors and individual stocks that have been "left out in the cold" by funds are facing challenges. As of today's close, the number of falling limits hit a new high this month (184), and many branch sectors of the technology line fell by 20%~30% in the first month of the year.
When the market was in crisis, Zhongzitou, bank stocks and performance pre-positive concept stocks led by "Ning Wang" tried to stabilize the index and sentiment. The previously hotly discussed "chasing the prefix or copying the king of Ning" in the market unexpectedly turned into a win-win situation.
In addition, the big money backed by the CSI 300 ETF is still there a shot today.
The "Shanghai Composite Index monthly line 6 consecutive yin" we mentioned in yesterday's push has become a fact. When the "recognized" bottom line is repeatedly challenged, how far is the market from actually stopping the decline?
In addition to the "Chinese word prefix", the performance is expected to become a new group direction
After market hours yesterday, CATL announced record excellent results. According to the evening performance forecast, CATL's net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 will be 42.5 billion yuan to 45.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.31% to 48.07%.
Stimulated by the news, CATL has risen sharply. Today's GEM index is the most resistant, and it can be said that most of them are supported by "King Ning".
From the perspective of individual stocks, the pre-increase in performance has also become a plus item that complements the concept of "Zhongzitou" (state-owned enterprises/central enterprises).
Especially on the ladder of connecting boards where faults have appeared, ZOSE Media, the only one that has obtained 7 consecutive boards, has become the culmination of the two concepts.
China Television Media is the only listed company under CCTV. It said that according to the preliminary calculation of the company's financial department, it is expected that the net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company in 2023 will reach 258.5 million yuan to 298.5 million yuan, which will turn losses into profits compared with the same period last year.
In addition, Chunfeng Power, Times Publishing, Great Wall Technology and other performance pre-increase stocks, as well as beauty makeup, Letong shares, Meibang clothing, Zhidu shares and other companies that have turned losses into profits, have also risen to the limit.
According to the media, as of January 30, the performance forecasts of 1,065 companies in Shanghai have been released. Among them, 557 companies are expected to improve their earnings in their earnings forecasts, and 669 companies are expected to be profitable in 2023.
Among the 1,065 companies, 325 are central state-owned enterprises, distributed in key areas related to the national economy and people's livelihood such as transportation, manufacturing, consumption, energy, etc., of which 186 companies have improved their profitability and 215 companies are expected to achieve profitability.
In the eyes of the industry, central state-owned enterprises are the leading force and important pillars of the national fund.
As for the banking sector, it is undoubtedly the sweetheart of the Chinese word + high dividends, and the strength of today's dividend index is actually suggesting this relationship.
After the Shanghai Composite Index has been in the red for 6 consecutive months, is it close or farther?
The data shows that since August 2023, the monthly line of the main A-share index has closed in the negative for six consecutive days.
From the perspective of Wind All A, there have only been four times in the history of the index monthly line of five consecutive yin, namely December 23, August 04, October 03 and September 97, and the six consecutive yin is the first time.
According to the statistics of major broad-based indices, the ChiNext index once had 7 consecutive monthly negative in October 2018, but it is the first time that the Shanghai Stock Exchange, CSI 300 and ChiNext have appeared 6 consecutive negative at the same time.
What will be the characteristics of the market before and after the index stops falling on a monthly basis?
A research report by Capital Securities said:
Looking back at the period since 2000 when the index fell more than this month (January 2024), more than half of them stopped falling in the following month, and the trading activity fell slightly in the month when the decline stopped.
From the perspective of the Shanghai Composite Index, 15 of the 29 months since 2000 that have fallen more than this month, the index stopped falling in the following month, and the average stop fall range spanned 2 months; from the historical average of trading activity, regardless of whether the performance of 18 years ago is excluded (considering that the amount of funds is not at the same level), the average daily turnover, trading volume and turnover rate have declined.
In its view, the performance can be understood from three main dimensions:
1) In the process of the index bottoming out, the market activity has been declining month by month, and the overall level has been maintained at a low level;
2) The entry of policy-based bailout funds will increase trading activity in the short term;
3) After the bottoming, the bulls have not fully confirmed the signal, the bears' power has weakened, and the market divergence has been bridged, and the trading activity has increased month by month after the signal is confirmed.
Looking back on the recent performance, with the increase in the volume of broad-based ETFs such as the CSI 300, the market has entered the stage of "weighting and building", and the trading activity of the market has increased in the short term.
"Referring to historical experience, we believe that the current increase in trading activity is driven by rescue funds to a certain extent, and with the return of market confidence and the recovery of its own upward momentum, the market volume may rise steadily after a slight decline, and the overall appearance is a healthy 'volume and price rise'. ”
National Business Daily