Written in front: Wednesday A is about to open, I can understand everyone's mood, everyone must want to know whether A shares will fall four times in a row on Wednesday, whether they will stop falling and rebound, intraday blockbuster data will be released soon, whether the announced data will reverse the trend of the market, then my point of view will solve these mysteries.
1. A shares fell sharply yesterday, I originally thought there would be a big fall, but I didn't expect a big contraction, yesterday's volume was only 671.6 billion, and Monday's volume was 815.5 billion, which shows the extent of the shrinkage. The risk of shrinkage is mainly manifested in the difficulty of completing a round of washing, and the sharp fall still did not provoke the power of the over-the-counter rebound to follow up.
Second, why the A-share market fell sharply yesterday, and the interpretation of various reasons after the market flocked to it, in fact, it was completely out of tune, and the reason was not on the table. I have been emphasizing that I am not optimistic about the short-term trend of A-shares, it is based on what I know, even if I am occasionally bullish, I will emphasize a cautious temporary attitude, in short, the risk factor is larger, in addition, WeChat, Taobao, Pinduoduo and other negative matters, please be cautious, it is unlikely that there will be a market before the holiday.
3. A-shares have basically been in a spiral downward process since last year, and every round of higher is followed by a process of greater decline. Yesterday's fall has been three consecutive days, and it is very likely to continue to stage a spiral downward process. At present, the Shanghai and Shenzhen daily K-line chart is obviously located on the right track of the reverse V-shape, and the decline is intensifying, in this case, it is unlikely that the sudden rebound will be stopped, not to mention that the shrinkage is lower, and the decline is more likely to usher in a rebound.
Fourth, yesterday's net inflow of northbound funds was 3.24 billion, which was in stark contrast to the sharp decline in A-shares. In fact, we really don't care about northbound funds, it is only a small part of the market capital flow, and the capital flow and the market trend are complementary and intertwined processes, and there is no relationship between cause and effect, they are all results. For the broader market, the net inflow of funds from one side must correspond to the net outflow of funds from the other party, for example, the net outflow of the main capital of the market corresponds to the net inflow of small and medium-sized orders, so the net inflow of funds in the large market is always zero. We know that 95% of the main funds in the market are net outflows, and if there is no corresponding net inflow, then the funds will not flow out. Therefore, don't talk about the outflow of northbound funds and domestic capital at every turn, it is really unnecessary.
Fifth, to sum up, A shares have temporarily entered the short technical form, the risk factor is larger, and the market is basically in a state of low volume shrinkage, this situation is unlikely that the market will continue to rise, I am not optimistic about the pre-holiday trend for the time being, then my view on Wednesday's A share trend is long overdue, welcome everyone to comment on the view.
1. The Shanghai and Shenzhen indices will continue to open with a decline along the downward trend of yesterday afternoon, which I believe is very likely.
2, the intraday Shanghai and Shenzhen indices will fluctuate downward, and finally close with a green disk, individual stocks will also be the result of rising less and falling more, my point of view is that, banking, securities, semiconductors, real estate, wind and solar storage, e-commerce and other sectors or will lead the fall, today will start a 2800 point defense war.
3. In addition, at 9:30 this morning, the Bureau of Statistics will announce the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI data in January, the current pre-value data is stronger than the previous value, but the pre-value of the manufacturing PMI and the previous value are below the 50 line, we are waiting for the data to be announced. After the data is released, I may express my opinion again.