At present, the world is undergoing major changes unseen in a century, and "rising in the east and falling in the west" has become a hot topic of concern in the international academic community. Martin Jacques, a longtime senior research fellow in the Department of Politics and International Studies at the University of Cambridge in the United Kingdom, is one such expert on China. In his 2009 book, When China Rules the World: The Rise of the Middle Kingdom and the End of the Western World, Jacques argued that the West will no longer dominate in the 21st century, and that China's rise will not only change the world economic landscape, but also completely shake people's thinking and lifestyle. This view is still the focus of discussion in academic circles at home and abroad. In 2016, Jacques's "Great Power Ambition: A Dream of a Great Power That Never Fading" (Chinese edition) was published, attracting attention again. The book presents readers with a three-dimensional, real China, and explores how China will lead the future of the world, the genes of becoming a truly global power, and how it can integrate into the world system.
Recently, Jacques said in an interview with this reporter that today China is becoming a new type of power with a difference, and it is a dynamic economy. Since the beginning of the new era, under the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, China has undergone a transformation from a follower of the international system to a defender of the international order, and from a recipient of the globalization process to a creator and influencer of the globalization trend. This transformation can be called an extraordinary historical event in the world, and represents a major change that is taking place in human society.
Show a more assertive international stance
China Social Science News: Under the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, China's status in the international system is rising day by day, showing a new posture that is different from the past. What do you think of this?
Jacques: I think there is no doubt that China is in a real new era, a great era in its prime. In contrast to the absence of "future" in Western political discourse, China has a long-term strategic plan for the future, which is inseparable from a series of decisions made by President Xi Jinping as the supreme leader of the Party and the state, which are both historic and epoch-making decisions. Today's China under the leadership of President Xi Jinping has greatly stimulated the sense of hard work of Chinese government officials and the enthusiasm of the people to participate in national governance. Governing a country like China, with a population of more than 1.4 billion, is no easy task, and President Xi Jinping has done just that.
China's leaders have demonstrated remarkable political leadership. President Xi Jinping's ideas of whole-process people's democracy, the Chinese dream, and the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation reflect his ambition to govern a great contemporary country like China. Under the framework of major-country diplomacy with Chinese characteristics, China has made great achievements in the field of diplomacy in the new era. Compared with the past, China's foreign policy concept in the new era has undergone some significant changes, and today's China has shown a more outward-looking, open-minded and confident international posture.
In my opinion, in the past year, there have been two major achievements in China's diplomacy that have attracted much attention: one is the successful mediation of the restoration of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which has set off a "wave of reconciliation" in the Middle East, and the other is the Sino-US summit, which can be regarded as a milestone in the history of China-US relations since US President Richard Nixon's visit to China in 1972. Recently, I listened with great interest to President Xi Jinping's 2024 New Year message. Through his congratulatory message, President Xi Jinping showed the world a splendid and poised China, and announced to the world that China will continue to adhere to the direction, policies and guidelines in the new year, such as continuing to deepen reform and opening up and unswervingly advancing Chinese-style modernization. It can be said that this is a heroic declaration, a declaration that not only focuses on the overall international situation but also has China's own characteristics.
Today's China is creating and leading a new international paradigm. China also has a more certain and clear judgment on the path of Chinese modernization that it is walking on than ever before, and has the courage to take the initiative to show this path to the world and actively share the opportunities and benefits brought by this path with other countries. Unlike Western countries, China has a different kind of affinity for developing countries, and is therefore able to empathize. China has a clearer and more understanding of the history and needs of developing countries than the United States and other so-called rich Western countries. This is also the reason why China's relations with Asian, African and Latin American countries are so closely intertwined today, and a large number of developing countries are willing to join the Belt and Road Initiative.
Chinese modernization has strong vitality
China Social Science Daily: You have said that for many Western scholars, the biggest pain point in understanding Chinese modernization is that they do not know enough about the Chinese model in the depths of their minds. How do you understand Chinese modernization?
Jacques: In my opinion, Chinese modernization is a completely different path from the Western-led modernization path, a new type of modernization path that is people-oriented and future-oriented, and its successful practice can be described as the largest "catch-up" in human history. Compared with other political systems, the socialist political system with Chinese characteristics has significant advantages in terms of stability and continuity, which has helped it to build a talented leadership team and various social elite groups from the central to the local level, which plays a decisive role in the implementation of Chinese-style modernization. Compared with the increasingly strong "centrifugal force" of Western countries, there is a "consensus" among all strata, industries and regions of Chinese society under the leadership of the Communist Party of China.
In the process of modernization, China's achievements in infrastructure construction are particularly remarkable. Modern high-speed railways and highways connect the whole country, so that the whole of China is interconnected, and the market can naturally expand and expand, which has a direct role in promoting Chinese-style modernization in recent years. In addition, China has also made gratifying achievements in the fields of modernization such as electric vehicles, green industries, and digitalization.
There has long been a voice in the West that is convinced that China is incapable of major innovations in the process of modernization. I think that's a serious misunderstanding. In fact, China has changed from the "learning from the West to the East" and "taking the West as a teacher" advocated in modern times to being self-reliant and self-reliant in all aspects today. China no longer blindly copies Western academics, technologies and ideas, but encourages an atmosphere of social innovation and scientific and technological research and development that is suitable for China's actual national conditions. Today, China has achieved major breakthroughs in many key technologies and has become a "leader" in many technological fields around the world.
At one time, almost all of the world's large technology companies belonged to the United States, and Silicon Valley technology had a monopoly position in the world, and American companies such as Google and Apple occupied an absolute dominant position. Today, China is well positioned to compete with Western countries in many technological areas. Over the past decade, large Chinese companies such as Huawei, Tencent, and Alibaba have emerged one after another, with some of the world's most advanced technologies, on par with the top technology companies in the United States. The Chinese-founded TikTok (Douyin Overseas Version) has been popular in many countries and has successfully adapted to a variety of overseas cultures.
Some Western scholars have threatened that the Chinese model is unsustainable. However, if we look at China's tremendous efforts in modernizing governance, the Pew Research Center global survey, the Chinese people's satisfaction with national governance, and the Chinese government's public approval rating, we can see that the Chinese model has strong vitality and can stand the test of time.
In the past, the West never really accepted China and projected its standardized thinking, systems, and norms onto China. Today, the changes that are taking place in China are remarkable to the world, and the West must try to understand this change and understand the factors that contribute to the change in China. China was, is, and will never be like the West. The Chinese model is very different from that of the West, and this distinction has existed for a long time and will continue to be in the future.
China's economy will be stronger
China Social Science Daily: You once said that from an economic point of view, China was and is a world power. Could you please elaborate on this?
Jacques: As we can see today, President Xi Jinping's approach to governance has paid off. Today, China has become an upper-middle-income economy and a major engine of global economic growth. According to relevant forecasts, by 2030, China's global GDP will account for more than 30%, and China's economy will be larger than the economies of Europe and the United States combined. Although this is only a prediction, I am optimistic about this prediction.
It is worth mentioning that in 1820, China accounted for more than 30% of the world's GDP – indicating that China already had a strong economy during this historical period. Twenty years later, China's national strength has changed from prosperity to decline with the arrival of a century of humiliation, but the history of humiliation has not brought a defeatist mentality, on the contrary, the Chinese people have never given up their efforts to change their own destiny. Today's China has regained its former glory and is getting closer and closer to the dream of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. It should be pointed out that although Britain established a huge overseas colonial empire with 1/5 of the world's population, Britain's domestic GDP at its peak accounted for only 8.5% of the global GDP at that time.
The year 2023 that has just passed has been a difficult year for people all over the world. This year has seen many far-reaching international events around the world, and China has also experienced many social challenges that it has never experienced. According to a number of data from international institutions, even in the face of pressure to emerge from the aftermath of the pandemic, China's performance in all fields in 2023 is still commendable, arguably much better than any Western power today. Chinese modernization has accelerated in a way different from that of the West and has sent ripples through the global post-pandemic economic recovery.
I believe that thanks to the advantages of a super-large market brought about by its huge population, China's economic power will become even stronger in the future, so powerful that no other economy in the modern history of the world can match, even the United States in the heyday of the 40s and 50s of the 20th century. Western countries must admit that China's economic transformation today is a remarkable process.
The way the West responded was a grave mistake
China Social Science News: You believe that the rise of China and the decline of the West are changing the state of the world for two centuries, and it is bringing about a deep crisis of Western mentality. Could you please elaborate on this?
Jacques: Western countries have always been "one step slower" in their forecasts for developing countries such as China. After World War II, the international system has been dominated by Western powers, represented by the United States. It is important to note, however, that the world situation today is very different from that of 10 years ago. On the one hand, the recession in Europe, the United States and Western countries is becoming more and more obvious, especially the financial crisis that spread throughout the West in 2008 accelerated this recession. On the other hand, developing countries represented by China are rising with a rapid momentum. By 2030, developing economies are expected to account for about 70 percent of the global economy, while the share of developed countries will fall to about 30 percent.
China's economic and technological rise is undoubtedly a huge challenge for the West. Historically, Western powers have not viewed China as a competitor, but today there are widespread voices that see China as a threat or challenge. Western powers did not expect China's rise to such a rapid level, nor did they want to believe that China's development could be so unimaginable.
In the face of China's growing power, Western countries have a sense of urgency and urgency. Western countries have refused to acknowledge China's success and have become aggressive, even trying to orchestrate "alternatives" to China's initiatives and respond with protectionist measures. However, I believe that this response is a serious mistake and is essentially a defensive response. The West's attempt to halt China's rise is doomed to fail. The idea that the land of the West is a "paradise on earth" and that there is only one model in the world, the Western model, as an international "yardstick" for measuring the development of other countries is, frankly, no longer applicable today.
Chinese culture reveals "all human civilization"
China Social Science News: You once said that in order to grasp China's current and future development, it is necessary to understand China's cultural traditions. Culture has become a particularly important issue in China today, how do you understand the significance of Chinese culture?
Jacques: It's true that culture plays a pivotal role in Chinese social traditions. China's heritage is the heritage of a civilization, and China's heritage is also a kind of civilization. The Chinese civilization has a distinctive characteristic, that is, it has maintained strong continuity and uninterrupted nature over time. Because of this, China's thousand-year-old civilization has survived the devastation of colonialism and has been able to rebound from the historical trough again and again.
If we compare China with the traditions of the West, we will find that the Western tradition places more emphasis on armed and military power, which is regarded as the "core of a modern great power", while for China, the power of culture is far more important than the power of the armed forces and military power. Chinese society has always promoted cultural soft power, a tradition that has greatly contributed to the success of China today. China's unique cultural system determines that the Chinese people have a special understanding and cognition of the relationship between the individual and the government, and the relationship between the country and the world. In China, the national government is seen as the guardian and embodiment of society, which is unthinkable in many Western countries.
Chinese culture is based on the reverence for "all human civilization", which constitutes China's unique way of looking at the world. China is committed to an ideal society of human harmony that transcends national borders, rather than spreading or imposing its own values on other countries.
For the major Western powers, however, "universality" epitomized the transformation of lands in other parts of the world into venues for the promotion of European culture and ideas. In the Western powers, "universality" is promoted through a form of political control and armed force, the highest form of which is "colonialism", which has historically constituted the main way in which Western countries have established contacts with the rest of the world. In the 500 years from the mid-14th century to the mid-19th century alone, there were as many as 142 wars between England and France. In stark contrast, during the same period, China did not go to war with any country, invade any country's land, or interfere in any country's politics. Even the tributary system in China's history was essentially a cultural system established with distant neighbors, rather than a military system or political means. Today, China has become a great power, but it still retains restraint and humility.
Now, through a series of global initiatives by President Xi Jinping, China has shared its successful development model with countries in Central Asia, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia, and many have taken the opportunity to change their fortunes. In these regions, the renminbi is growing in importance and the influence of China's proposals is growing, and Western countries must face this reality. In addition to erecting barriers, technological blockades, and strengthening political power, Western countries must find proper ways to deal with China in today's world, and explore how to coexist with China as a competitor on a par with it.
Source: "China Social Science Daily" January 29, 2024 Issue 2825 Author: Bai Le
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