Today, I will answer a more frequent question, "Large language models can be programmed, will programmers disappear in the future?", this question is also the question I have been asked the most in various lectures and live broadcasts since the ChatGTP fire in 2023, since AI can be programmed, programmers are unemployed, what programming do they still learn?
To answer this question is actually not difficult, I change the question to ask everyone "is there still a company recruiting typists?", of course the answer is no, but go back twenty or thirty years ago, computers were still rare, when I went to school, the school had a small computer room, twenty or thirty machines, thousands of students took turns to use. Later, I joined the work, a unit of thousands of people, only two computers, one in the financial department, for everyone to calculate the salary, the other in the information department, most of the departments are still paper-based, if some data must be entered into the computer, must go to the information department, by the professional typist comrades using the skilled five-stroke input method for entry.
At that time, I was very envious of this post, which I had just graduated, because I was so tall that I could touch the computer every day, and I could actually type more than 100 Chinese characters in one minute! After a few years, computers gradually became popular, and basically every department in the unit was equipped with one, and young people naturally took advantage of their innate advantage to "learn quickly" and gradually mastered the right to use computers. One day I found that the old Wang in the next department was also using the computer, he was not even a person who could not recognize the pinyin, it turned out that he had a magic weapon, and later I learned that this is called a handwriting board.
It was amazing that Chinese characters that could only be typed by keyboard could be typed by hand! It was amazing that I was thinking, "Won't typists be unemployed in the future?" After a few years, mobile phones have also become popular, especially smartphones are now one per person, and if you want to enter information, you can enter it with direct voice recognition.
Again, I thought about the question, "Aren't typists going to lose their jobs?", so which job site is there a company hiring typists? Of course not. But if you apply for an office position, whatever the position, and you describe "I can't type" on your resume, how much hope do you have of getting in?
Twenty years ago, typists have indeed disappeared, but typing has not disappeared, but has become a necessary survival skill for people in the modern workplace! So now to officially answer everyone's question "With the development of artificial intelligence, will programmers disappear?", my answer is "Programmers may disappear, but programming skills will become a necessary skill for everyone in the workplace!".
I know there will be people who disagree with that, so let me explain it slowly. First of all, let's look at why everyone must be able to program in the future, just like typing, in the information society, all kinds of data have been informatized, typing as the basic way of informatization will naturally have a demand in various occasions, so in today's society, you can't type? Definitely not, because it means that you are abandoned by society.
Similarly, now we have gradually entered the era of artificial intelligence, with the development of large language models, in the future, various AI applications will be all over all aspects of life, people will not only have common needs, but also pursue individual needs, so AI applications will gradually be personalized in the future, and the social demand for AI applications will rise exponentially, and where do AI applications come from? Of course, it is programmed, isn't AI able to write programs? If you have used a large language model generator program, you will know that the probability that the results of AI programming will fully meet your requirements is not high, more often than not, you need to test the results it gives over and over again, find problems and hand them over, let it continue to change, or simply change it yourself, which is more reliable. But to do this, the premise is that you must understand the program, if you are a complete novice, even if the AI gives you a program, you don't even know how to run it, let alone understand all kinds of error messages, and then communicate with the AI, so everyone must be able to program in the future.
This brings us to the second question, how can everyone be able to write a small project on their own, if programming is so professional and so difficult? Similarly, let's look back at 20 years ago, there were special training institutions in the society to train typing, because the professionalism of typing was still very high at that time, but then the pinyin input method greatly reduced the threshold for typing, as long as you understand pinyin, even if you are slower, you can also type, and then handwriting input, voice input has come out, typing has basically no threshold. So if we look at it in the long term, as long as there is a market for this skill, there will be a demand, there will be a business opportunity, and if there is a business opportunity, the company will find a way to lower the threshold so that more people can come in. It's the same with programming, the future society is full of AI, programming is the most effective means of dealing with AI, note that I am talking about the most effective, not the most commonly used and simplest means. So since there is a market, there is demand, there is a demand, there is a business opportunity, and if there is a business opportunity, some people will think of lowering the programming threshold, so in recent years, we will find that some companies have launched a "low-code programming platform".
The so-called low-code allows you to write as little or no code as possible to complete a project, which is simply to realize the programming process through visual operations, parametric configurations, etc. Isn't it difficult to program code, and you have to remember the syntax, and you have to remember those keywords, which is too troublesome, so you are given a semi-automated tool to complete the project by dragging and dropping modules and configuring parameters.
In fact, Scratch, the most common in children's programming, can also be said to be a low-code programming platform, which can achieve certain functions by splicing different building block modules.
In the future, there will be more and more low-code platforms, the threshold will be lower and lower, and the functions will become more and more powerful, so it is not inconceivable for ordinary people to learn to master programming after a few days. Maybe 20 years from now, people will ask the same question, "You don't even know how to code, how do you get a job?"
Some people may think, "AI will become more and more intelligent in the future, even if I can't program, but I can command AI to program for me, and the programs generated by AI may not be very good now, but they will get better and better in the future, so I don't need to learn programming, just wait for AI to mature again, and I will command it."
The idea seems fine, and I'll give you an example, now you go for a job, and although you can't type, you can use a handwriting tablet and voice input, so as long as it's not a job that requires typing speed, you should be able to do it. So you send out your resume, which truthfully describes your situation: "I can't type, but I can use a handwritten tablet and voice input", what will be the result waiting for you? Although you can type with the help of a handwriting tablet and voice assistant, the keyboard is the most standard and versatile typing tool. But you don't know how to use a keyboard, you need a tablet, a voice assistant, sorry, the company doesn't have a tablet, a voice assistant! Then I'll spend my own money to buy one, okay, but one day the boss calls you to a meeting and make meeting minutes, and you must not be able to use voice input during the meeting, what about the handwriting board? I'm sorry, I didn't take it in a hurry, and there was no room for it, only a computer, what should I do? You will find that you can't type, it's inconvenient to go anywhere, because the current society is like this, you don't think about people who can't type, you will find that you are abandoned!
In the same way, if a person can't program (including low-code programming), it is equivalent to not being able to type, although he can use AI to program, similar to a handwriting tablet and voice input, but his work will still be limited everywhere, for example, you will use ChatGPT to program, but the company does not use ChatGPT, only Wenxin Yiyan, what should I do? The output of the same prompt is different under different large models, unless all companies in the world use the same large model in the future, similar to keyboards, which can be used all over the world, but this is impossible. And if you can program, it's different, as long as you have a keyboard (this thing is common all over the world), as long as you have a programming platform (although there are many programming platforms at present, but the mainstream is open source and free, anyone can use it, and there are more likely to be some general low-code programming platforms in the future), you can do things, and you will not be limited by whether the company uses a certain large model.
In short, the future is the era of artificial intelligence, people must be proficient in the ability to interact with AI, and AI itself is programmed, if you know how to program, you will naturally have more advantages. By the way, even if AI is very mature, I don't think programmers will disappear, and the more likely outcome is: low-end programmers will disappear, because this part of the work can be done by the basic skills that everyone knows, and high-end programmers will never disappear, after all, AI still needs to improve, algorithms still need to be optimized, and there is no programmer in any line. Unless AI has developed to a singularity where it can optimize and improve itself, I am afraid that by then, our concern is not whether we can find a job, but whether human beings will be destroyed or ruled by AI.