Two international conferences on Afghanistan are about to be held, and the Taliban have invited representatives of China, Russia, Iran, and Pakistan to Kabul to participate in another regional meeting organized by the Taliban. The results of these meetings will certainly affect the future direction of the situation in Afghanistan.
[The Taliban invited representatives of China, Russia, Iran and Pakistan to Kabul to participate in the meeting on regional issues]
Since the Afghan Taliban authorities have not yet issued an official announcement on the meeting, the outside world can only determine that the core topics of the meeting should be the security situation, people's livelihood and regional security issues in Afghanistan through information disclosed by Mousavi, assistant minister of foreign affairs and director of the South Asia Department of Iran.
It should be noted in advance that the timing of the Taliban in organizing this meeting was very delicate.
A few days ago, the Russian side announced that China, Russia, Iran and Pakistan are in communication and are preparing to hold a conference on Afghanistan at the end of January.
Since there was no mention of the Atta authorities, what the Russian side was referring to at that time was supposed to be a quadripartite meeting without the participation of Atta diplomats. It's just that I don't know if this quadripartite meeting will continue after Atta wants to organize a five-party meeting.
[UN Secretary-General's spokesman de la Rivier announced that the UN will also organize a meeting on Afghanistan]
In addition to the quadripartite meeting between China, Russia, Iran and Pakistan, the United Nations is preparing to organize a meeting of special envoys for Afghanistan in Doha, the capital of Qatar, around 18 February, with the participation of many countries and some international organizations, to discuss how to strengthen the international community's participation in the Afghan issue. However, Atta has not made any comment on the UN meeting, and it is uncertain whether Atta will send someone to attend the meeting.
Judging from the recent changes in the situation in Afghanistan, Atta took the initiative to reach out to China, Russia, Iran and Pakistan before the two meetings, most likely because he wanted to discuss with the four countries in advance on issues of greater concern to the international community, such as inclusive government, counter-terrorism, and the fight against drug crimes, so as to reduce the negative impact of recent remarks by his own officials and changes in the surrounding situation, which would have a negative impact on the international recognition of the Afghan interim government.
First, an important concern of the international community in Afghanistan is whether Atta can truly establish an inclusive government.
After all, Afghanistan itself has a large number of ethnic groups, but relations between various ethnic groups have not been very harmonious, Pashtuns and non-Pashtuns have long been in opposition, and there are many political factions within various ethnic groups.
[The Taliban itself is not a multi-ethnic organization]
This determines that Afghanistan can only hope for lasting peace and stability if it has an inclusive Government that is representative of all ethnic groups and political factions in the country.
However, due to long-term ethnic antagonism and some problems in Atta itself, the interim government of Afghanistan has not developed into a truly inclusive government as promised by the Taliban, and the Pashtun ethnic group, which is the base of Atta, still occupies most of the top positions, and it is difficult to see Shiites and women in the interim government.
Recently, the international community has called on Atta to establish an inclusive government more than once, but Atta has not been moved, and some high-level officials have come forward to say that the interim government is "sufficiently inclusive", and at the same time, they have also said that any country that continues to call for Atta to establish an inclusive government will install "agents" in the interim government. The Russian side even rebuked Atta for proposing that Atta engage with anti-Taliban forces.
[Atta is now reluctant to give up more senior positions]
Secondly, the security situation around Afghanistan is far from improving because of Atta's delay in addressing the terrorist forces in the country. The Pakistani Taliban, the Islamic State-Khorasan branch and other groups continue to use Afghanistan as a base to attack neighboring countries. The international community's concern about Afghanistan once again becoming a source of terrorism is deepening.
Coupled with the impact of border demarcation and Pashtun tribes in the border areas, Atta's relations with Pakistan and other countries have also been unstable, and gunfire is often heard on the border, which has caused further tensions in the region.
That's why China, Russia, Iran, and Pakistan and the United Nations have chosen to hold a meeting on Afghanistan now to determine how to communicate with Atta on issues such as inclusive government.
Atta may also realize that it has indeed stabbed a big basket on some key issues, and there is a risk of "trouble coming out of the mouth", and it must quickly make amends, communicate with each other, and explain and explain, so as to preserve a glimmer of possibility for the international community to be widely recognized. At the very least, we need to make sure that we can reach an agreement on key issues with China, Russia, Iran, and Pakistan, which have a sufficient say in Afghanistan, to find a key balance.
[Atta's diplomats in China previously submitted their credentials to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the mainland]
For countries such as China and Russia, it is also beneficial to have some communication with the Atta side before attending a key meeting organized by the United Nations. After all, the Western bloc, led by the United States, has been at war with the Taliban for many years, and many specific matters related to Afghanistan have been put on the meeting room of the United Nations, but it is not so easy to make breakthroughs.
Finally, the actual situation in Afghanistan and the Taliban determines that it is challenging to establish an inclusive government in this country, and for the Taliban authorities to really make up their minds and take real action, it will require long-term cooperation from the international community, which cannot be achieved in two or three meetings.
Therefore, in the upcoming series of meetings, the international community should be able to reach some consensus on maintaining communication with the Atta authorities and actively promoting the reintegration of Afghanistan into the international community, but there may not be a breakthrough on the issue of inclusive government. On the contrary, it is the issue of anti-narcotics, people's livelihood and even counter-terrorism, which may be the first to achieve results.