A number of Russian media quoted Kremlin sources as saying that the presidential office "strongly recommends" that the Central Election Commission veto Boris Najzhdin's presidential candidacy because he violated the "unwritten agreement" reached with the Kremlin and his anti-war words and deeds crossed the "red line" of the Kremlin.
"Everything is messed up," the source said...... We don't want Najriddin to point the finger at Putin and the 'special military operation', but in reality it is quite the opposite. ”
[Najriddin is currently the only anti-war candidate who is likely to run]
We have mentioned Najriddin earlier, who is currently the only possible anti-war candidate. On March 17, Russia will hold a presidential election, and most of the candidates have been eligible, these people are in support of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and it can also be said that Putin's "sparring partner".
And Nadezhdin, who is currently the only one who holds an anti-war stance, should have been a "sparring partner": In October last year, when Nadezhddin had just announced that he was "considering running for election," Putin personally met with him in the Kremlin Palace, and the two had a secret conversation for nearly one hour.
This is a very rare practice: on the one hand, although Nadezhdin is well-known in Russian politics, his personal appeal is not great, and his party does not even rank in the top 5 of the State Duma (lower house), and is not eligible to run directly in the election.
On the other hand, as president, Putin has a lot of official business every day, and dignitaries from all walks of life at home and abroad have to queue up to see him, so why should he meet an opposition who cannot pose a threat at all?
[In October last year, Putin made an appointment to meet Najriddin]
What is even more strange is that after the secret talks with Putin, Nadezhddin refused to disclose the specific content of the conversation between the two, and only talked about some inconsequential details: for example, he was quarantined for four full days before meeting Putin......
And from the current point of view, if the words of the Kremlin source are true, then we may be able to speculate that the content of the conversation between the two is the so-called "unwritten agreement", and we can understand why Najriddin is silent about it.
The so-called "unwritten agreement" should mean that Najriddin can maintain a certain anti-war stance, but he can only "scold a little and help a lot" and cannot point the finger at the Kremlin and Putin. In this way, Najriddin can successfully pass the two candidacy tests of the Central Election Commission and become an official presidential candidate.
It's a win-win situation for Kremlin and Najriddin. An anti-war candidate entering the final election can not only highlight the "diversity" of the election, but also increase the overall turnout. This is very important, now the Kremlin is not worried about Putin's votes, their only concern is that the people with anti-war positions and some centrists do not vote, resulting in a lower turnout overall.
[The Kremlin is not worried about Putin's vote rate, the only thing they are worried about is the low overall turnout]
For Najriddin, as the only anti-war candidate, even if he will undoubtedly lose the election, the political influence he can get will be enormous, and he will become the banner of the anti-war faction.
According to the source, Nadezhdin's candidacy was initially agreed and arranged by Sergei Kiriyenko, the first deputy head of the presidential administration, with him.
This may also explain why fellow anti-war presidential candidate Ekaterina Duntsova was rejected in the first round of eligibility on the grounds that there were "too many spelling mistakes in her submissions", while Nadezhddin was able to make it through to the stage of collecting signatures.
[Ekaterina Duntsova, who has been disqualified from running]
However, at this time, Nadezhdin seems to have changed his mind, which also makes him the biggest variable in the Russian election.
According to the rules, since he is not from the top five parties in the State Duma, he needs to collect 100,000 signatures throughout Russia, and no more than 2,500 in each oblast, which means that he needs to have enough popular support in 40 regions — unlike in the US election, where some states don't want votes.
It is worth mentioning here that Putin, who ran independently without partisanship, collected 2.5 million signatures in a week, and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov proudly said that "we can collect more if necessary."
Big cities in Russia, such as Moscow and St. Petersburg. Anti-war sentiment is usually strong, and it is easy for the opposition to get signatures in these places. The problem is that Najriddin doesn't have enough influence in other remote areas, and it is difficult to collect signatures.
In order to achieve his goal of collecting signatures, Nadezhddin had to make more radical statements on social media, changing his usual moderate image: he called Putin a "tyrant", accused him of making serious mistakes on issues such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the domestic economy, and said that "Russia's financial sector is not serving the country, but wiping the Kremlin's ass."
[Russian people queuing up to sign for Nadezhdin]
Najriddin's aggressive propaganda strategy paid off, and not long ago he officially announced the completion of the collection of 100,000 signatures. But the problem is that his tactics also seem to have angered the Kremlin, so there is a "strong recommendation" by the presidential office that the Central Election Commission veto Najriddin's presidential candidacy.
Normally, after collecting 100,000 signatures, Najriddin will submit them to the Central Election Commission for review. Russia's electoral law requires the commission to conduct a 20 percent sample of these signatures, and if more than 5 percent of them are found to be ineligible for the solicitation, the candidate will be disqualified from running for the final stages of the campaign.
It can be said that this link will be the biggest challenge that Najriddin needs to face next, and whether he can finally enter the general election process depends on whether the Central Election Commission will set a card for him according to the will of the Kremlin.
And we can also wait and see whether Najriddin, the "last hope" of the anti-war faction, can get through this most difficult hurdle and truly have a real competition with Putin on the same stage.