Some analysts believe that with the disclosure of more information, the outline of the crash of the Russian Il-76 transport plane as a "political strategy" seems to be becoming clearer and clearer. The "technique" is similar to the technique of "tanuki for prince".
According to well-known Russian journalist Yuri Podolyaka and some Russian military bloggers a few days ago, the military transport plane that crashed near the airport in Russia's Belgorod region was originally planned to carry "passengers" who were not Ukrainian prisoners of war, but members of the Russian Defense Ministry's negotiating team, including General Sergei Egorov, Russian Duma deputy Shamsel Salaliyev and other senior officials.
That is, the Russian side temporarily "replaced" the members of the negotiating team with Ukrainian prisoners of war. And in this "replacement" decision, it is very likely that there is a huge "political conspiracy". Of course, it can also be called "strategy".
The reason why Russian journalists and military bloggers revealed this "information" was originally to prove that the destroyed Il-76 transport plane was indeed carrying Ukrainian prisoners of war, but it did not come to pass, but it indirectly confirmed the speculation that this was a well-planned "porcelain bumping" incident.
Some analysts believe that the "information" revealed by the well-known Russian journalist Podolyaka is enough to show that the Russian side has judged in advance that the "travel trajectory" of the negotiation team of the Ministry of Defense has been grasped by the intelligence departments of Britain, the United States and other Western countries and notified the Ukrainian side. And Ukraine cannot let go of such an opportunity, and it is very likely that it will carry out offensive operations. Based on this, the Russian side decided to implement the technique of "changing the tanuki for the prince" and replaced the "passengers" with Ukrainian prisoners of war.
As a result, this "manned" military transport plane swaggered over Belgorod Oblast, which has been repeatedly attacked by the Ukrainian army, without any air protection and ground support.
And the tragedy happened "as scheduled". At around 11 a.m. on January 24, the Il-76 military transport plane crashed into a small village just a few kilometers from Belgorod airport, and none of the 74 people on board (according to the Russian side, 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war, 3 escorts and 6 crew members on board) survived.
Some people may ask: If the "plane crash" incident is indeed a "porcelain" conspiracy, then what is Russia's plan to pay such a price (the loss of the plane and nine Russians)? In this regard, let us analyze Russia's reaction after the "plane crash" incident and the "mystery" it contains.
After the "plane crash" incident, Belgorod Governor Gladkov immediately said with great certainty that none of the 74 people on board were spared. It seems to be "well informed" about the number of people on board. However, it is important to know that this is a military plane, not a civilian airliner, and it is unlikely that the number of people will be reported to the airport in advance, unless the military informs him, the "administrative officer", in advance.
The first bulletin issued by the Russian Ministry of Defense has two main contents, one is to announce the specific number of people on board the crashed Il-76 transport plane, that is, it carried 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war, 3 escorts and 6 crew members. The second is to emphasize that a special commission of the Russian Aerospace Forces is conducting an investigation.
Note that the first report of the Russian Ministry of Defense did not specify that the plane crash was the work of the Ukrainian army. However, almost at the same time, the Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying: "The crime was committed by the Kyiv regime." ”
However, Kartapov, chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee of the Russian Federation, as a member of the Russian Federation, "determined" that the plane was hit by a "Patriot" missile earlier than the Russian Ministry of Defense, and he also particularly stressed that based on the needs of the "exchange of prisoners of war", the Russian side had informed the Ukrainian side in advance of the flight route and time of the Il-76 transport plane (the Ukrainian side denied it).
Immediately afterwards, Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, posted on social platforms that the downing of the Il-76 transport plane was "the result of the internal elite political struggle of the neo-Nazis in Kiev."
After the crash was "characterized" by the Russian side, Russia's permanent representative to the United Nations, Nebenzya, immediately asked the Security Council to convene an emergency meeting to "denounce" Ukraine's terrorist acts. In addition, the Russian Foreign Ministry also made a high-profile statement that it would "send letters" to the United States and Germany about the incident.
It is not difficult for a discerning person to see, or feel, that Russia's response seems to be "one link and one link", and the direction is clear and the purpose is clear. It can be said that it is a move to the "vital point" of Ukraine and the West.
For example, if the Russian side informed the Ukrainian side of the route and time of the plane in advance, then it would be confirmed that Ukraine is a "Nazi" terrorist act, and if the Ukrainian side still attacked the Ukrainian people "knowing that there were its own prisoners of war on board", then it would intensify the contradictions between the Ukrainian people and the military and the Kyiv regime.
For example, if it is confirmed that the plane was destroyed by a "Patriot" missile, it means that Ukraine has "broken its promise" towards the West, which will make the Western public "disgusted" with the Kyiv regime. It will also make Western countries "passive" in international public opinion, and Russia's request to convene a meeting of the Security Council is based on this purpose.
Some people may ask: Why did Russia "send letters" to the United States and Germany alone? The reason is very simple, because the United States is the "leader" of "aiding Ukraine and opposing Russia" in the Western camp and the largest aid country to Ukraine. Germany, on the other hand, is the "backbone" of the European Union and the European countries that have provided the most aid to Ukraine. Obviously, the Russian side has the intention of taking the opportunity to "disgust" these two countries and "force" them to reduce or cancel aid to Ukraine.
And if such a "plane crash" incident is indeed a "political strategy" of the "tanuki for the prince" style, then the most implicit purpose of the Russian side is to "create" the "legitimacy" of the special military operation in Ukraine.