GMO is really coming!
On January 23, the Ministry of Rural Agriculture summarized the following key information in response to a reporter's question "Is China open to the cultivation of genetically modified soybeans and corn?": First, the country attaches great importance to this matter, and has made a series of important deployments and made significant progress.
Second, according to the requirements of Document No. 1, the pace of industrialization of corn and soybean biological breeding is being accelerated in an orderly and steady manner, and the scope of pilot projects is expanded and large-scale planting is being expanded. Third, in 2023, the pilot scope has been expanded to 20 counties in 5 provinces of Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Hebei and Sichuan, and seed production will be arranged in Gansu.
The fourth genetically modified variety, compared with the traditional variety, has more yield increase and cost saving.
Fifth, 26 enterprises have been granted licenses for the production and operation of corn and soybean seeds. The above is the key information that passed through the combing on January 23. This also means that a large number of genetically modified corn soybeans will come out next.
At the same time, a message to all of us: the era of GMOs in China has arrived.
Commercial genetically modified planting will fully open an era.
Once GMOs take root, there is no turning back.
It also means that intensive, large-scale seed companies with enterprise companies as the main body will fully control the power to use seeds, and farmers will be gradually replaced in this historical stage. Is this direction good? Time will tell.
My point of view is that since the trend has been established, I will try to cultivate a pure land by myself.
So why go to such great lengths to promote GMOs?
The development of genetically modified crops in China is divided into three stages: the first stage, the "pioneers" led by the United States took the lead in commercializing genetically modified crops in 1996, marking the official entry of genetically modified crops to the world stage. In just three years, the technology has been extended to 11 countries, covering a total area of 40 million hectares.
In terms of size alone, countries still have reservations about this technology.
In the second stage, the transgenic gene began to accelerate, that is, in the 10 years from 2000 to 2010, the number of countries and planting areas of the technology has increased significantly, and the number of planting countries has doubled to 29, with an area of 148 million. This is an increase of 100 million hectares compared to the change of 400 million in 10 years, and countries still have reservations about this in terms of inherent area.
In the third stage, GMOs have entered the mature stage, and the global area will reach 190 million by 2019.
If GMO is a leap across the ages to greatly improve human food, from 1999 to 2019 in nearly 20 years of development, the 190 million hectares of planting area is very small.
In more than 200 countries around the world, the process is not slow, but it is not fast either.
So why not expand the area?
In these three periods, China has kept up with the trend of the times and is also researching genetically modified organisms, which has roughly gone through the initial stage of 1980, the initial stage of results from 1990 to 2018, and the further stage from 2019 to the present. It is worth noting that in 2023, once the pilot project of 5 provinces and 20 counties of GMO is completed and put into business, it is foreseeable that China's future GM planting area will cross 100 million ranks to a certain extent.
According to the content data released by the World Agrochemical Network on March 16, 2023 in 2021:
In 2021, the total planting area of grain crops in China will be about 1.764 billion mu, and the planting area of corn will be about 650 million mu and beans will be 152 million mu. This data shows that the acreage of corn and soybeans is huge. In the same way, once genetically modified corn and soybeans are popularized throughout the country, the planting market will be very broad.
In other words, the total planting area accumulated in the world in 20 or 30 years.
We may catch up or even overtake in a period of time.
Judging from various data and expert explanations, first, to increase production and reduce costs, second, experts believe that it has relatively high economic returns, and third, to meet the situation of domestic supply exceeding demand...
Other experts believe that after the urbanization of rural areas, there are fewer people who farm land, food security crisis, and low output value of individual crops (I did not say what the specific yield is. ）
Since the GMO experts say it so well and the process is long, why are the people polarized?
Vigilance is necessary. As Professor Wen said, GMO should be proven safe in three or three decades, and it cannot be blindly put into the market without long-term verification, and people's health must be considered. This concern is indeed true. We have to be prepared to keep people healthy and seeds safe.
For genetically modified planting, farmers should be allowed the right to freely choose the varieties to plant.
At present, the GM grains and oils sold in the market are believed to have their own choices.
The essence of this matter is that the public has concerns in their hearts. Experts rarely address the public's doubts in a positive and scientific way. Another doubt is the food self-sufficiency rate.
According to the official website of Dahe Finance Cube on January 23, the mainland's grain supplement will be about 160 million tons in 2023, an increase of 11.7%, of which 99.41 million tons will be beaten beans. Another data report is that the mainland's grain production has been stable at more than 13,000 catties for nine consecutive years, with a per capita rate of 490 kilograms, higher than the international food security standard line of 400 kilograms per capita.
Food rations were much greater than demand, and there was security, and rice and wheat increased in total.
Corn, which is in high demand, has also increased more, and supply and demand have changed significantly. In addition, soybean planting has also increased significantly, and the consumption of grain stocks is well above the level proposed by the United Nations by 17%-18%. What does this mean, it shows that grain self-sufficiency relies on our inherent cultivation and can already meet the needs of self-production and self-consumption. Why soybeans?
This is also the reason why most people don't understand.
According to some accounts, soybeans are one of the main sources of protein intake for the human body, and domestic soybean production cannot provide enough soybeans for the huge market. In addition to people eating soy products, more importantly, soybean meal is an important part of providing animal food sources for animal husbandry. In other words, in addition to human consumption, it is more important to support huge animal husbandry.
So the question is, where does China's annual supply of soybeans go?
According to the China Times: the continuous increase in soybean meal in the market is the main factor in the supply of soybeans. The second is edible oil with soybeans as raw materials. As a result, China replenishes so much soybeans every year that one of the important factors in the implementation of GM in China is that the yield is not high and cannot meet domestic demand.
From the perspective of people's own soybeans, the occupancy is not much, and the domestic self-produced soybeans are basically satisfied.
What cannot be satisfied is the huge amount of feed produced by animal husbandry.
In this way, it is generally clear where the soybeans are going.
As mentioned earlier, the total time from research to maturity of transgenic can only be 30 years, and China's time is only 37 years from the 1986 plan (863 plan), and the time from maturity to application is not long.
How to verify the protection of people's health needs to be further explored.
If it is to meet the needs of animal husbandry, although soybean meal is one of the important sources of protein for feed, can we explore an alternative or similar plant cultivation to meet the demand?
Judging from the current overall grain subsidy structure, most of China's grain is exported, except for soybeans.
On the whole, China's grain self-rate can meet people's needs.
Judging from the data, we seem to be too cold about the perception of genetically modified soybeans. If it is used to meet the needs of livestock feed, it is completely possible to concentrate on one or two areas and concentrate on soybean cultivation to meet the needs.
I think it's probably ideal, but I'm just a personal opinion.
In addition, we also have to think about the question, what should farmers do after large-scale genetically modified areas?
This seems to be an unsolvable problem, and the first question is what should farmers do to keep their own seeds? Can they keep their own seeds? At present, most people are still in a wait-and-see state on genetically modified organisms, and there are also cases where farmers plant seeds from seed companies.
On May 11, 2023, Farmer's Daily published an article titled "Can Genetically Modified Crops Be Retained?Farmer's Daily: Seeds Can Be Retained by Transferring to Conventional Crops".
Article 29 of the Seed Law stipulates that the use of authorized varieties for breeding and other scientific research activities, and the propagation materials of authorized varieties for farmers' own propagation and self-use, are exempt from paying funds.
Article 28 stipulates that the unit that has completed the breeding shall have the exclusive right to its authorized varieties, and no unit or individual shall produce, breed or use it for commercial purposes without the authorization of new plant varieties.
What does this mean is that if one day, a seed company sells genetically modified seeds, will farmers buy new seeds every time they plant them, or will they use them for their own use? Will there be legal issues involved?
In the long run, it is necessary to keep the right to breed in the hands of the farmers themselves.
In the same way, where do the seeds come from? Are they bred by ourselves or supplied from abroad? Or do we use our own genetically modified seeds? Who does the patented invention of genetically modified seeds belong to?
Here is an allusion - Guan Zhong Chu Guo buys deer.
It is a story of the Spring and Autumn Period, which can be called the wisdom of the defeated army at that time.
During the Spring and Autumn Period, the princes divided one side, the state of Chu was rich in economy at that time, the soldiers were strong and strong, Qi Huan Gong thought that it was difficult to defeat Chu, Guan Zhong said, you might as well buy the special sika deer from Chu at a high price, with the greatest sincerity.
When the people of Chu learned of this benefit, they abandoned their fields and raised deer.
At this time, the Qi State bought a large amount of grain from the surrounding areas, and the border countries found that the Qi State had a high bid, so they all sold it to him. Because of the famine, the state of Chu could not be self-sufficient in food for a certain period of time, and finally the state of Chu was defeated. The reason for this matter is very simple, that is, the economic lifeline must be in your own hands, and relying on others is not a long-term solution after all.
On the whole, the expansion of genetically modified planting has been considered at the national level, and the same people have also considered. This trend is already taking shape. I cited a lot of data in my article, but in fact, it only shows one problem, GMO may help us increase production, solve the relationship between supply and demand, and no longer rely heavily on external supplements.
However, we also need to be cautious that there needs to be a long-term verification process before anything new comes out.
It is normal for the people to be worried, and the ultimate goal of scientific experiments is not also to benefit the people? Therefore, the voice of the people is the most authentic voice, and if it is necessary to implement it, the public should first dispel their doubts. Otherwise, even if the mainland's genetically modified technology is different from that of other countries, it is easy to misunderstand because the scientific explanation is not in place.
Again, listen to everyone's opinions. #Boutique Long Essay Creation Season##头条发现计划#