The rescue of the national football team was ineffective and the group was declared out.
This is the first time that the national football team has scored zero goals in the group stage since participating in the official matches of the Asian Cup, setting an embarrassing record.
In the matter of disappointment, the national football team has never disappointed.
These "smartest" combinations, who spend a lot of money to squeeze into the team, have become the most vulnerable on the pitch.
How many years does it take to sharpen a sword, and when will it gather into a tower?
This is a reproduction of the prophecy of "self-fulfillment" and a true portrayal of the "fallacy of synthesis".
The prophecy of "self-fulfillment" is also called the "Oedipus effect" in the West, and Oedipus is cursed to kill her husband and marry her mother, but despite the efforts of all parties to avoid it, the metaphor still comes true.
Oedipus's mother commits suicide in shame, and Oedipus pokes himself in the eye.
The "Oedipus effect" is the manifestation of "self-realization" into tragedy, and in the oriental dictionary, "self-realization" is equivalent to a beautiful vision.
With a beautiful vision, everyone will "self-realize".
What is the vision of the market?
A senior overseas hedge fund manager was forced to make the painful decision to liquidate due to a sharp drop in products.
The fund has been consistently ranked as the world's best-performing macro hedge fund, with an average net return of more than 18% per annum.
The reason for this decline is to short the Nikkei and long the Hang Seng Index.
In the letter he said: "I still do not understand the inconsistency of the ZC formulators, not fighting deflation, leading to a continued loss of market confidence and a prolonged bear market." ”
It seems that he underestimated the "determination" of the relevant parties and used the logic of the free market to predict the behavior of the relevant parties according to the script.
To put it bluntly, it is actually an expression of disappointment that "there is no interest rate cut this time".
What is the ultimate goal of the parties involved?
Stable prices: inflation cannot exceed 3%, which is now negative and stable below the zero axis.
Full employment: The unemployment rate is controlled within 5.5%, and now it is only 5.2%, no problem.
Economic growth: GDP has reached more than 5%, and now it is 5.2%, which has been successfully achieved.
Balance of Payments: Balance the inflow and outflow of currency, due to the trade surplus + quota restrictions, it is difficult to think of an imbalance.
Now that the goals have been achieved and the macro data is so good, what more bicycles do you need?
For the parties concerned, it is perfectly correct to keep interest rates unchanged, and this is where "calm down" and "maintain concentration" come from.
I have to sigh that Fa Ge's "synthesis fallacy" is really well used, concise and to the point.
Sweeping the snow in front of the door, and being the "smartest" person on every line, has caused the current situation.
So, what are the stones that hinder the market from "self-realizing" its beautiful vision?
In 2023, we set our inflation target at 3%, and if we can keep it below that, it will be a great victory compared to the "demonic" inflation of 8% in the United States.
I don't know if it's great or not, 2023 has passed, and the CPI has been at 0 and below for 6 months.
It's a triumph for a grand narrative that can go down in history.
Especially for the wealthy, this means that the existing wealth has not shrunk, and they can applaud and applaud.
Because high inflation is tantamount to a redistribution of wealth.
For everyone other than the rich, this means sluggish consumption, insufficient demand, a downturn in the economy, and declining incomes.
Therefore, the achievement of ambitious goals is not the same as the "feeling" of most people.
There are generally two indicators to measure inflation, the monthly CPI (consumption side) and the quarterly GDP deflatant.
CPI is narrow inflation, and the GDP deflator is broad inflation, which is more comprehensive.
There are only a handful of quarters where the GDP deflator is below the zero axis, namely the recession that followed the 1997 economic crisis, the recession that followed the 2008 financial crisis, and the scarring effect that followed the three-year pandemic.
The GDP deflator forecast for 2023 is -0.54%, which is a rare negative year in history.
Is this a big deal, is it worth the effort?
If we compare the CSI 300 index with the GDP deflator, we will find a strong correlation between the two.
Of course, due to the lag in GDP-related data, the CSI 300 index tends to reflect inflation expectations in advance.
So, if you want the market to bounce back or get back on the right track, you have to pull out decent tools.
How to boost confidence and pull back inflation, and how to promote consumption to stimulate the economy are things worth pondering for the major class teachers.
In the process of "self-realization" of a beautiful vision, any self-centered "synthetic fallacy" should be avoided.
If the "synthesis fallacy" persists, then "self-actualization" will go in the opposite direction.
The above is purely a personal emotional display, chatting and laughing.