China's Aerospace: Reflection and Reflection
Text| Yu Fei
(below)
2. Contemplation - The challenge of reality is not terrible, but the terrible thing is indifference to the crisis. A real sense of crisis is not only the driving force, but also the beginning of innovation.
We must admit the reality that Musk's SpaceX has formed an unprecedented challenge to China's spaceflight. As SpaceX's leadership in transforming and reshaping the global space industry is highlighted, every astronaut must have a deep sense of crisis and a strong sense of distress.
So, how to deal with such a challenge? This is an important topic that requires serious consideration.
- Meditation 1: Break the traditional thinking of aerospace development and establish a new model of national aerospace and commercial aerospace integration that is in line with China's reality
In essence, the difference between China and the United States in aerospace is the difference in the different paths of the integration of national aerospace and commercial aerospace. At present, China's aerospace is still developing by the inertia of the inherent path dominated by the traditional national aerospace and public welfare aerospace, and although the development of commercial aerospace is quite improving, its background color is still an extension and supplement of traditional aerospace.
Our achievements in the traditional model are huge, and there is still room for development, and how much space for development is not the topic of this article. However, from the perspective of the development trend of aerospace, commercial aerospace has firmly occupied the core position of the world's aerospace economy, and has become the main position and main battlefield of strategic competition and game between major powers.
According to the "Prospects for Space Exploration" report released by Euroconsult, global governments spent a total of US$25.5 billion on space exploration activities in 2022, an increase of 7.3% compared to 2021. In the 10 years from 2013 to 2022, 1,791 companies in the field of space technology around the world raised a total of US$272.4 billion in the primary and secondary markets.
It can be seen from this that commercial aerospace must be regarded as an important pole of aerospace development, so as to mobilize and stimulate the enthusiasm and creativity of commercial aerospace, create and establish a fair competitive environment and market rules, and achieve a balanced, coordinated, and mutually reinforcing development trend between national aerospace and commercial aerospace. The Central Economic Work Conference at the end of last year included commercial aerospace in the list of emerging strategic industries to be supported this year for the first time, which is an urgent and strong signal.
Of course, some voices will say that China and the United States have different national conditions, and copying the "business first" model may not be suitable for the reality of China's aerospace development. However, it is necessary and necessary to cultivate and nurture commercial aerospace so that it can become an organic component of the country's strategic forces as soon as possible, and not just an embellishment and vassal.
- Pondering 2: Vigorously enhance the economic volume and industrial scale of the aerospace industry, and accelerate the construction of the aerospace economic system and the development of the aerospace cultural industry
At present, one of the fundamental problems of China's aerospace industry is that the size of the economy and the scale of the industry are small, and it is difficult to form an industrial form with extensive influence, thus restricting the economic, scientific and technological functions and cultural functions of the aerospace industry.
As far as the space industry in the narrow sense is concerned, from the perspective of two representative indicators, investment amount and company valuation, the data shows that in the 10 years from 2013 to 2022, the United States accounted for 46% of global space investment, and China accounted for 29%. Among the listed Chinese aerospace companies, the market capitalization is concentrated below 10 billion yuan, and in terms of the valuation of commercial aerospace enterprises, the average single financing amount is about 200 million yuan, and its valuation can be deduced accordingly. In the United States, SpaceX alone is valued at $150 billion, and even old aerospace companies such as Loma and Boeing have a market value of around $120 billion. Therefore, there is still an order of magnitude gap between China and the United States in terms of economic size and industrial scale.
According to the production function theory, the Econometric Society of the United States analyzed the impact of NASA's R&D investment on the growth of the U.S. GDP from the macroeconomic aspect, and the calculation result was 1:14. That is, for every $1 NASA spends in space technology, it generates $14 or more in economic benefits for the gross domestic product of the United States. If we take the aerospace economy in a broad sense, including application, consumption, cultural creativity, culture, cultural tourism and other extended industries into the field of view, this gap will be even greater. Compared with the well-developed aerospace consumer goods market and aerospace cultural industry in the United States, the development of China's aerospace economic system and aerospace cultural industry is extremely incommensurate with China's status as a major aerospace power. If the development of the aerospace economy with commercial aerospace as the core lags behind, if the development of national aerospace and commercial aerospace is unbalanced, and if the development of the aerospace economy supported by the large-scale application market, the mass consumer market, and the socialized cultural market is slow, it will be difficult to lay a solid economic and cultural foundation for the construction of a space power.
In fact, when aerospace has become an important part of national strategic competition, the large-scale development of the aerospace economy and the prosperity of aerospace culture are the decisive factors in aerospace capability. The final defeat of the Soviet Union and later Russia in the space competition between the United States and the Soviet Union was largely not due to the space technology itself, but to the gap in its space economy and space culture.
- Pondering 3: It is necessary to vigorously support the development of commercial aerospace in many aspects such as development strategy, policy support, market position, and support
Traditional aerospace is essentially a national behavior, and it is a space exploration activity guided by national development plans and strategic goals. However, with the emergence of disadvantages such as bloated system, overstaffing, high R&D and labor costs, this model has limited the innovation and development of aerospace to a certain extent, and gradually exposed shortcomings such as low efficiency, inactive attitude, and low product innovation ability.
Therefore, in a sense, commercial aerospace is a measure to improve the bottleneck of development through the introduction of market-oriented operations, so that space activities are no longer a single national behavior, but a comprehensive behavior that needs to consider input, output, interests and efficiency. Through market-oriented operation, the cost of research and development has been greatly reduced, and traditional enterprises have also been prompted to make changes and innovations, activate the innovation mechanism of the market, and at the same time be conducive to the commercialization of aerospace technology, so that more people can experience the benefits brought by aerospace technology. More importantly, commercial space will also accelerate the realization of national strategic goals in the field of space, provide support for a more far-reaching strategic layout, and allow the country to focus more energy on more difficult, deeper and more meaningful frontier exploration.
At the national level, all-round support for commercial aerospace is of far-reaching significance from the perspective of the overall national strategy and technological development from the perspective of development strategy, policy support, market position, and support strength, as well as resource tilt and the introduction of laws and regulations, as well as project support at critical moments. In particular, the living environment and market fairness of private aerospace enterprises, as well as policy support and financial support, still need to be greatly improved and improved.
In this sense, commercial aerospace should and should become an important force in China's aerospace competition, and build an aerospace industry system based on this, and become a deep technical and economic soil for the country's aerospace development. Otherwise, it will be at an unfavorable position in the field of commercial space, and finally at the national space level.
- Pondering 4: It is necessary to attach importance to the inheritance and development of the aerospace spirit, put an end to formalization, and be more vigilant against the vulgarization of the aerospace ecological environment
Academician Wang Xiji, now 102 years old, once said: "The reason why we have been able to succeed in these things is that we have been able to succeed in these things by relying on the superiority of a socialist country that has concentrated its efforts to do great things, and on the other hand, it has relied on the spirit of 'two bombs and one satellite.'" It can be seen that the spirit of aerospace is the spiritual cornerstone of China's brilliant achievements in aerospace.
However, what is worrying is that, on the one hand, under the erosion of the administrative hierarchy system and the official-oriented culture, the traditional aerospace spirit has gradually evolved into an official-style article and superficial work that is not right for the lower level and the higher. On the other hand, the new aerospace spirit with a sense of the times is also in a state of inhibition, and it is difficult to grow and develop.
What is even more necessary to be vigilant is the vulgarization of the aerospace ecological environment, such as only being an official and not doing things, only emphasizing fame and fortune and not making contributions, only following conservative lines, not innovating and making breakthroughs, only gaining status and power, and not taking risks and responsibilities......
- Pondering 5: It is necessary to establish an open and inclusive aerospace industry system and absorb positive external factors
The long-term closure of the aerospace system has formed a closed loop of vested interest groups, which makes it difficult for "aerospace +" to be substantially promoted. In particular, in derivative industries such as aerospace applications and aerospace culture, the immoral behavior of rejecting positive and active external factors and even "taking doctrine" has greatly hindered the efforts of external social forces to jointly build a "great aerospace economy".
- Pondering 6: It is necessary to speed up the construction of a new national system in the aerospace field and the promotion of the reform of mixed ownership, and promote the transformation and upgrading of the aerospace system and mechanism
Only by organically integrating the government, the market, and society, unifying the institutional advantages of concentrating on major affairs with the market and innovation, stimulating efficient innovation power, innovation ability and innovation vitality, better integrating the resources and creativity of the whole country and the whole people on the existing basis, and winning the strategic initiative of innovation and development, can we sustainably improve the level of aerospace science and technology and industrial development on the mainland.
The reform of mixed ownership is an important way to build a new national system. The purpose of the new national system is to make technological innovation and breakthroughs, so that the market will become the decisive force in the allocation of resources, the industry will become the main battlefield of scientific and technological innovation, and the enterprises will become the main force of scientific and technological innovation. Mixed ownership can be used as a new model of deep integration of government, industry, academia and research to form a close integration and aggregate various capital resources, which has become an important way to promote the new national system.
The purpose of the mixed-ownership reform in the aerospace field is to achieve the unity of the three objectives: First, the research and development, integration, diffusion, and transfer of advanced aerospace technology; second, the transformation of the operating mechanism of enterprises from an administrative system to a market-oriented system; and third, the absorption of social capital, the optimization of the governance structure, and the solution of the problems of internal development motive force and external development resources. The core of this is to build a comprehensive innovation system that is jointly coordinated and promoted.
III. Conclusion
Reflection is not a blanket denial. The purpose of reflection is to better think about the future options and feasible paths of China's aerospace. At present, China's aerospace industry is in a period of strategic opportunity and strategic transition from a space power to a space power, and it is necessary to see the bright future as well as the twists and turns of the road; it is necessary to strengthen confidence and face up to contradictions, so as to achieve steady and far-reaching results.
We hope that China's aerospace industry will have a profound and thorough emancipation of the mind and the purification of concepts to meet the challenges of the future.
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