China's Aerospace: Reflection and Meditation (Part I)

China's Aerospace: Reflection and Reflection

Text| Yu Fei

(Above)

Due to the failure of NASA to launch the "Peregrine Falcon" lunar probe for the first time in 52 years, the US Congress was a little nervous. On January 17, a group of U.S. space experts, government officials, and lawmakers gathered in the House of Representatives to demand that NASA make a "military order" to ensure the smooth implementation of the Artemis program and land on the moon before China. It has become the consensus of the United States that NASA must defeat China's aerospace and become a leader in the space field.

As early as more than two years ago, CNN's website published an article entitled "Why Is China's Space Program May Surpass NASA?" in which it bluntly said that China's achievements in the space field have made the United States feel that it is difficult to maintain its superiority.

Given China's achievements in space in recent years, it makes sense to take China's ambitions seriously, the article argues. And the main advantage of the United States over China is gradually concentrated in the emerging commercial space industry, led by SpaceX. If the United States wants to compete, it should unleash the full potential of SpaceX and other commercial space companies seeking deeper exploration of space, pursuing higher speeds and lower costs.

The article goes further and argues that the space race in the 21st century is not so much a race between China and NASA as it is a race between China and the U.S. commercial space industry. Unless Congress and NASA embrace the commercial space industry more closely and pursue bold exploration programs, China, with its indomitable spirit and ability to emulate the strengths of the West, will prevail over the United States, which is currently in the lead.

There is no doubt that in the eyes of the US government and the opposition and the media, China has long become the most threatening challenger to the United States in the space field, and it is not surprising that these moves by the US Congress are not surprising. However, what is impressive is that as the world's leading U.S. aerospace industry, its attitude of self-analysis and deep reflection in the face of powerful challenges is the strong sense of crisis revealed behind it.

From here to the other. As far as the general trend of aerospace development is concerned, the period between now and 2030 when China plans to achieve the goal of a manned landing on the moon will be a critical period for the reshaping of the space pattern between China and the United States and even the world.

Over the past decades, China's aerospace industry has embarked on its own unique development path, not only made brilliant achievements, but also has a complete and independent aerospace manufacturing, R&D and talent system, established a strong aerospace infrastructure and a complete aerospace industry chain, and laid the foundation for sustainable development. At the same time, it has also formed a development model with the national system as the core, a scientific research route with independent research and development as the direction, and an aerospace spirit and aerospace culture system represented by the "three spirits". Practice has proved that this is the historical choice and fundamental support for China's aerospace development.

Based on this, China's aerospace industry has accumulated a lot of experience in the past ten years, showing a trend of explosive breakthroughs and progress. Major projects such as launch vehicles, manned spaceflight, Beidou Gaofen, lunar and fire exploration, and space stations have achieved fruitful results, and many fields have reached or approached the world's leading level.

However, it is needless to say that China's aerospace industry is also undergoing the test of the "historical cyclical law". What is the "law of historical cycles", that is, what Mr. Huang Yanpei said, "'its rise is also muddy', 'its death is also sudden', a person, a family, a group, a place, and even a country, many units have not been able to jump out of the dominance of this cyclical rate." ”

The most prominent manifestation of the "cyclical law of history" in the aerospace field is that under the long-term awareness of achievement, the sense of crisis and the sense of distress have gradually weakened, and many deep-seated contradictions are often ignored or covered up intentionally or unintentionally. Among them, only talking about achievements and not talking about problems is not a normal state for the healthy development of an industry.

Therefore, we try to throw bricks and lead the way to critically and constructively examine and think about some fundamental issues that plague China's aerospace industry, with the intention of jumping out of the shackles of the "historical cyclical law", promoting the reform process of China's aerospace system and mechanism, and promoting the transformation and upgrading of the aerospace industry.

1. Reflection - Historical scrutiny

Reflection is an important method in the pursuit of self-growth and transcendence.

This is true for individuals as well as for organizations.

Reflection is a self-analysis and in-depth review based on the historical dimension, and a combing of the historical roots and historical context of reality.

• Reflection 1: A clear understanding of the system inertia caused by the path dependence of historical formation

For a long time, the basic path of China's aerospace development is the traditional national system, with national investment as the mainstay, aerospace central enterprises as the main force, task-oriented, and not pursuing input and output benefits.

This path has its inevitability and rationality in a certain historical period, and has great value and significance for national security, national image and national pride, geopolitical game and industrial infrastructure construction.

However, over time, path dependence will inevitably form and the system will become inert. As the "Cave Pair" said: "At the beginning of the day, all of them were difficult and difficult, concentrated, no one was careless, no one did not work hard, and strive to seek a life from ten thousand deaths, so they all appeared to be full of vitality and a new atmosphere." When the environment gradually improved, the spirit gradually let go. Some of them have a natural inert onset because they have lasted for a long time, evolving from a minority to a majority, and even if they develop an atmosphere, they cannot be reversed or remedied. ”

From the perspective of the history of global space development, the system inertia caused by path dependence is not unique to China, and the United States is no exception.

After reaching the peak of the Apollo moon landing, the national system of the United States space had to be promulgated in 1984, which had a far-reaching impact on the subsequent "Commercial Space Launch Act", which liberalized the rocket launch business to commercial companies, but for a long time after that, it was difficult to substantially advance under the inherent framework due to the inertia of the system caused by path dependence. This continued until 2008, when NASA's own innovation mechanism was on the verge of failure, and its attempts to reform its investment methods were also mired. The advent of SpaceX has fundamentally changed that.

China's aerospace industry has long been aware of this problem, and began its efforts to commercialize aerospace in the 90s of the last century, but the operation mode is still confined to the framework of traditional aerospace, and in essence, it is also the system inertia caused by path dependence that makes it difficult to make great achievements. By 2015, commercial aerospace was launched, and although it injected elements of change, its strength was still weak and difficult to have a fundamental impact on the existing pattern.

It is precisely for this reason that the United States is concentrating its efforts to maintain its space superiority on emerging commercial space forces such as SpaceX, so that the competition between China and the United States in space will gradually evolve into a dispute over the integration of China and the United States in national space and commercial space. This is also the fundamental reason why the US media believes that the backwardness in commercialization is a huge flaw in China's aerospace industry.

Therefore, the essence of the Sino-US space competition is to cultivate and support emerging space forces that can break through path dependence and overcome system inertia.

Of course, it does not matter whether this new aerospace force arises from the inside or outside of traditional aerospace, whether it is state-owned or private, but it is important to inject the determination to break this path dependence and the courage to overcome system inertia into the entire aerospace system.

• Reflection 2: The bureaucratic tendency of the administrative system does not match the mechanism of scientific and technological innovation

At present, central enterprises and state-owned enterprises are still the main forces of China's aerospace industry, and based on many historical and practical factors, aerospace central enterprises and state-owned enterprises have shown a very strong administrative color in the operation mechanism. Almost every institution has an administrative level. However, the administrative system can easily lead to the value orientation and incentive mechanism of the official standard, and gradually show a tendency of bureaucracy. In the long run, the concept of political performance and conservative tendencies will inevitably breed, unwilling to take the risk of innovation, and the motivation and vitality of innovation will gradually fade, which is incompatible with the operation mechanism of scientific and technological innovation.

As some industry insiders commented, our aerospace state-owned enterprises and central enterprises have hundreds of thousands of teams, and there are a lot of capital subsidies every year, but in some core technologies, they are surpassed by SpaceX, which has only a few thousand people, which is really undeserved.

Of course, China's aerospace industry has its own historical evolution, and its development mainly relies on scientific research and national strategy, and its management methods are more robust, and it pays more attention to the reliability and safety of technology, which will be relatively conservative, but this is not a reason for bureaucracy.

In the past, the founding fathers of the "two bombs and one satellite" and the aerospace masters were rarely affected by official positions, fame and fortune, or even life and death, and laid a solid foundation for China's independent innovation in the aerospace industry under the difficult conditions of poverty and whiteness. Guo Yonghuai sacrificed his life to protect the data, and Deng Jia took the risk of finding a nuclear bomb first, in addition to the feelings of family and country, but also the firm belief in scientific and technological innovation, regardless of fame and fortune, and not avoiding life and death. Qian Sanqiang's motto: "From Cow to Love" is the best footnote to the older generation of aerospace fathers in their pursuit of scientific and technological independence and innovation. Until now, even if they are in their old age and expectation, Wang Liheng, Wang Xiji, Long Lehao, Ye Peijian, Liu Jiyuan, Sun Jiadong, Zhang Luqian, Ouyang Ziyuan and other aerospace fathers are still fighting for the development of China's aerospace industry.

Needless to say, at present, many of our aerospace technologies are still at the height of the older generation of astronauts, and there are few real breakthroughs and substantive innovations. An important reason lies in the misalignment and reversal of values between the official standard and the scientific research standard.

On the other hand, despite the strong support of the U.S. government, SpaceX's development is mainly driven by the market and innovation, with a flexible and efficient operating mechanism, an aggressive innovation style, and no fear of failure and setbacks. In a sense, the gap between China's aerospace and SpaceX in innovation is largely rooted in the inhibition and encouragement of innovation by the administrative bureaucracy and the market-oriented risk system.

Therefore, it is necessary to deeply reflect on the drawbacks of the administrativeness of scientific research institutions.

• Reflection 3: Market hegemony and strong position undermine market rules and the competitive environment, and hinder the healthy development of the industry

For a long time, based on the important position of aerospace in national security and national strategy, aerospace central enterprises and state-owned enterprises have greater advantages in policies, funds, talents, administrative and other resources, forming a certain market influence and appeal, and it is understandable to use them appropriately. However, in reality, under the unreasonable use of this resource advantage, it gradually evolves into a market hegemony and a strong position over other subjects in the industrial chain, which in turn creates an unfair market environment for competitors and supply chains, and even more professional parties.

Outstanding performance includes: on the one hand, the system or related suppliers to give unprincipled tilt, such as the designated suppliers, even if the quality and price are high, but also according to the order, resulting in high costs, destroying the fairness of market competition, but also dampening the innovation enthusiasm of the supply chain, greatly hindering the healthy development of the industrial chain. On the other hand, relying on a strong position and using the products of private enterprises for integration, but using this to ask for funds and credit, in fact, has caused the exploitation and suppression of private enterprises.

The irrational use of resource advantages makes it difficult for the supply chain inside and outside the system, and for state-owned aerospace enterprises and private aerospace enterprises to achieve the "three sames", that is, to enjoy the same status, equal rights and interests, and equal treatment. It undermines fair competition and coordinated development, leads to the failure of the upstream and downstream industrial chains and industrial systems to establish a healthy market order and competition rules, breeds negative and corrupt factors, and worsens the industrial development environment.

Reflection 4: The application and transformation of aerospace technology is weak, and the promotion of aerospace + industry ecology is weak. The aerospace cultural industry has not received enough attention, and it is difficult to form a social and cultural foundation for the great development of the aerospace economy

At present, there is an imbalance in the mainland's aerospace industry, such as too much construction and too little application, too much accumulation and too little transformation, too much investment and little return, a strong foundation but a weak ecology, a strong capability and a weak market, and a strong undertaking and a weak culture. The root cause lies in the fact that the application side and the consumer side are very weak, it is difficult to establish a profit model and market mechanism based on commercial aerospace, and the industrial ecosystem is fragile.

In addition, the aerospace culture stays at the level of simple modeled propaganda, and has not formed a social psychological and cultural soil that matches the great development of the aerospace economy, and the construction of the aerospace cultural industry has not received enough attention.

Examining the social and cultural background of the development of the U.S. commercial space and space economy, there are two aspects that cannot be ignored:

1. The United States has formed a relatively mature system and mechanism for the development of military-civilian and civilian-civilian and dual-use technologies, and the medical and daily necessities transformed by aerospace technology have greatly improved the quality of life of the people.
2. The United States has also formed a fairly developed aerospace culture industry, including: the dissemination and promotion of aerospace culture represented by NASA, a series of space-themed IPs with global influence represented by Hollywood, and the aerospace culture and aerospace science popularization base represented by NASA's Kennedy Space Center and relying on aerospace resources.

All these have provided strong social and cultural support for the development of the aerospace economy.

Regrettably, despite its social influence, spiritual connotation, and the world's largest consumer market that are difficult for other industries to match, China's aerospace industry has not made much achievements in the construction of space economy and culture. Most of the dozens of aerospace theme industrial parks under the subordinate units of a certain institute have disappeared after the signing ceremony and news release, and a very small number of them have landed, mainly in the form of aerospace model decorations or traditional exhibition halls, etc., and others that can really arouse public interest are lackluster. As a strategic industry, it is quite regrettable that it only has political influence and fails to exert its due economic, scientific and technological influence and cultural influence.

> to be continued, enter the official account and read "China Aerospace: Reflection and Meditation (II)"

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