China Nauru has resumed diplomatic relations, and Taiwan's future is seen from several details

Not long ago, the election of the leader of the Taiwan region ended, and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Lai Ching-te was elected; due to the DPP authorities' consistent "Taiwan independence" stance, this result has aroused the worries of many netizens about the direction of cross-strait relations, and the relevant discussions have continued until now.

In fact, in an election, we must not only look at the results, but also see the changes behind the results. Only by analyzing the changing trend can we better see the future direction of Taiwan.

We have seen several sets of data in the course of the election, and from these sets of data, we can see some future directions.

In this election of the leader of the Taiwan region, DPP candidate Lai Qingde received the highest percentage of votes, at 40.05 percent.

The amount of information conveyed by this number itself is limited and needs to be analyzed from a more in-depth and nuanced dimension. If we put together the DPP's vote share in different regions and compare it with the previous ones, we can see a trend.

According to calculations, compared with 2020, the DPP's vote rate in Taiwan's 22 counties and cities has all declined, of which the ten counties and cities with the most serious declines are:

Why these places? Another set of data is the perspective of observation.

Many of these places are the source of Taiwan's troops.

The DPP authorities are pushing the Taiwan region to the brink of danger.

And this has caused great disgust among the Taiwanese people. Last year, a short video of a Taiwanese aunt questioning why the DPP authorities were sending their 16-year-old child to the battlefield received widespread attention. Behind this degree of attention, it is precisely the general mood of the Taiwan compatriots that is reflected.

In addition to the above cases, the data is also giving different answers.

Not long ago, Taiwan's research institute conducted a survey on the ways to resolve cross-strait issues, and the results showed that "maintaining dialogue and exchanges with the mainland" is the most important way, and the proportion of people who choose it is twice that of "maintaining friendly relations with the United States, Japan, and other countries" and nearly 2.5 times that of "continuing arms purchases and strengthening armaments."

In other words, the majority of the people in Taiwan still hope to work with the mainland to resolve the issue of cross-strait relations, rather than turning to outsiders.

This is a direct opposition to the DPP authorities' pursuit of "independence."

When the DPP authorities intended to push Taiwan to the brink of war. What the mainland has promulgated is a policy for the integrated development of the two sides of the strait, and what the mainland has created is an opportunity for the common development of the two sides of the strait.

From January to November 2023, the mainland approved 6,936 new Taiwan-funded projects (including reinvestment through third places), a year-on-year increase of 26.8%, and the actual utilization of Taiwanese capital was US$2.69 billion, a year-on-year increase of 39.9%.

Only by adhering to the "92 Consensus" and opposing "Taiwan independence" can there be peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, can cross-strait relations develop, and can the interests and well-being of compatriots on both sides of the strait be guaranteed.

Another set of data also allows us to see the demands of the people on the island more clearly.

Tan Zhu used big data to count the discussions on local mainstream social media platforms after the results of the 2024 Taiwan regional leadership election were released, and compared them with the previous ones, it can be seen that the people's dissatisfaction with the election results has increased, and at the same time, polarization has become more serious.

How to understand this dissatisfaction? It can be dismantled from the specific issues.

At the two nodes, the Taiwanese people have discussed cross-strait relations, economic policy adjustments and other issues, but compared with before, in 2024, there is one topic that will no longer be focused on:

How will Taiwan's new leader deal with social welfare and education, especially in improving people's livelihoods?

The reason why it was not discussed was because there was no need to discuss it at all.

On the issue of people's livelihood, after the DPP authorities came to power, there were "seven shortages" on the island -- lack of eggs, lack of electricity, lack of medicine, lack of water, lack of land, lack of manpower, and lack of talent.

A set of data can see the plight of people's livelihood on the island:

Insufficient power supply, frequent "blackouts" in the past four years

||The biggest "shortage of medicines" in 30 years

||The longest "egg shortage tide" in history

A small egg stirred up Taiwan last year and was repeatedly fried, leaving the impression that it was a joke seen by the whole world.

In fact, importing eggs from the mainland is fast and cheap, but solving the problem with the help of the mainland is unacceptable in the eyes of the DPP authorities, who "oppose China and seek independence."

The egg is just a microcosm, and it reflects the DPP authorities' behavior of completely ignoring the situation of the people on the island.

Stretching out the long-term dimension and comparing the distribution of votes in several elections for the leadership of the Taiwan region, some signals can be seen even more.

Another noteworthy statistic is that the proportion of young people between the ages of 20 and 40 who support the DPP has dropped significantly in this election.

Previous poll data shows that Taiwanese people in this age group are most concerned about development-related issues.

Through the issue of people's livelihood, we have seen the gap between the DPP's election slogan and reality, how has Taiwan developed in the past eight years?

The semiconductor industry is the most important perspective.

This topic has been mentioned many times in the election promises of the Democratic Progressive Party, which has declared that Taiwan will have an advantage in the industrial and supply chain of the new generation.

But the reality is that according to the forecast of Taiwan's professional research institutions, last year, the output value of Taiwan's semiconductor industry will fall by 11.2% year-on-year.

This is not the worst-case scenario, in fact, the biggest crisis restricting the development of Taiwan's semiconductor industry is the shortage of talent.

According to Taiwan's 2023 "Semiconductor Industry Talent White Paper", in the second quarter of 2023, the average monthly talent gap in the island's semiconductor industry reached 23,000.

It takes time to cultivate talents in the chip industry, which is an objective situation, but at the same time, with the passage of time, this situation will only become more and more serious - the syllabus implemented by the DPP authorities has the problem of too few compulsory hours in natural subjects.

The dean of the School of Electrical and Information Science of National Taiwan University said that this problem will lead to a decline in the quality of talents on the island, and the cultivation of talents will have a great impact on the semiconductor industry. He warned that if Taiwan does not pay attention to the mathematics and science education of high school students, the talent gap in Taiwan's semiconductor industry will be more obvious in 7-10 years.

To add insult to injury, there is the problem of brain drain.

According to the statistics of Taiwan's research institutes, at least 300,000 white-collar workers and high-tech talents in Taiwan leave the country every year, and the United States, Japan, Australia and other countries are all popular destinations.

Taiwan does have a pivotal position in the global semiconductor industry chain, and it is precisely for this reason that the United States has emphasized Taiwan's important position in the chip industry chain on many public occasions and forced TSMC to set up factories in the United States.

However, the DPP authorities did not consider the interests of the Taiwan people in this process, and watched TSMC become "American Semiconductor Company". In addition, the DPP authorities also use the semiconductor industry as a so-called "diplomatic business card" in exchange for a so-called "diplomatic victory" by hollowing out the semiconductor industry on the island.

This is the problem of the talent gap in Taiwan's semiconductor industry. In desperation, Taiwan's semiconductor industry even has to poach people from some industries that are not related to semiconductors.

And this method of "killing chickens and taking eggs" is precisely the "way of thinking" of the DPP authorities.

After the DPP authorities came to power, due to the deterioration of relations with the mainland, the development of other industries has also been affected to varying degrees.

In many counties and cities, agriculture is still one of their main industries, and a large number of jobs are solved.

After the Tsai Ing-wen administration came to power, it began to advocate "de-Sinicization" on the pretext of promoting Taiwan's goods to the world, and shifted the goods originally sold to the mainland to the markets of the so-called democratic camps of the West, such as the United States and Japan.

Taiwan's agricultural exports in 2021 were nearly $5.7 billion, and in 2022, exports were $5.2 billion, a decrease of more than $400 million.

Behind these figures, the interests of the Taiwan people have suffered real losses.

The DPP authorities have completely failed to live up to the Taiwan people's longing for the future.