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He Fan: How to overcome the turbidity current of the financial crisis for the second time

He Fan: How to overcome the turbidity current of the financial crisis for the second time

The following article comes from He Fan, who wrote variables, and the author He Fan

He Fan is a director of the China Chief Economist Forum and the chief economist of Entropy Capital

This article is excerpted from the course "He Fan's View of the Big Picture".

As the saying goes: failure is the mother of success. In many cases, this is wrong. In most cases, small successes are more likely to motivate people to keep trying and trying, while sudden failures only make people feel frustrated. In many cases, success can be the mother of failure. It is often said that only by learning from history and learning lessons can we avoid making mistakes in the future. Unfortunately, people don't always draw the right lessons from history, and they are more likely to misread history or have only a partial understanding of history. A historian once ridiculed Napoleon's invasion of Russia: Napoleon did study history, but he only studied it in order to make a better mistake a second time.

The Hall of Mirrors, a new book by renowned economist Eisengreen, tells the story of how people perceive and misread the financial crisis. The Great Depression of 1929-1933 and the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 were two of the most significant financial crises we have ever experienced. The two crises are very similar in many ways. It's natural to associate the two financial crises together. More coincidentally, during the global financial crisis, Ben Bernanke, the head of the Federal Reserve, and Christina Romer, the chair of the Oba President Ma Economic Advisory Council, had studied the history of the Great Depression at a young age. Now that we have the lessons of the Great Depression, can policymakers do better this time?

He Fan: How to overcome the turbidity current of the financial crisis for the second time

Decision-makers can certainly do better. Before the Great Depression, there was no mature macroeconomics, and the understanding of the financial crisis was plain and crude. For the policymakers and economists of the time, the market economy was a natural law, like the arrival of storms and tsunamis, which could not be disobeyed by man. The international gold standard welded economies together, and policymakers at the time did not value macroeconomic policy autonomy and were comfortable with protracted recessions and soaring unemployment in order to maintain exchange rate stability. They believe that it is a good thing for companies to go bankrupt during the financial crisis, which is exactly what the "survival of the fittest" must do. In the words of Andrew Mellen, the Treasury Secretary of the United States under President Hoover, bankruptcy is a necessity, and it is to "strip away the rotten parts".

The central bankers of the time believed in the theory of real bills, believing that the central bank could only provide credit that matched the needs of economic activity, and that when the economy was booming, the central bank would provide more credit, and when the economy was shrinking, the central bank would reduce the supply of credit. They argue that bank failures are of the same nature as corporate failures, and that the government has no obligation to bail out financial institutions. The government must strictly adhere to fiscal discipline, because fiscal deficits are a crime, and even if there is an economic crisis, the government must tighten fiscal spending.

This grim political philosophy, mixed with Puritan rigor and social Darwinism, led policymakers to remain indifferent and indifferent in the face of an unprecedented financial crisis, and then turn to hysterical panic when the situation spiraled out of control. In order to cover up their own incompetence and mistakes, politicians have made scapegoats for other countries, and beggar-thy-neighbor "trade wars" and "currency wars" have finally dragged countries into the abyss of World War II.

This time, policymakers did a better job. Having learned the lessons of the Great Depression, they avoided the worst outcome. When Lehman Brothers collapsed, they acted decisively to save capitalism in a "socialist way", injecting massive liquidity into financial institutions, and almost turning systemically important financial institutions into "state-owned financial institutions". When the economy hit rock bottom, they banded together to stimulate economic growth in an unconventional way by employing expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, especially unprecedented quantitative easing. Developed countries have invited important emerging market countries to join the G20, and governments have resisted the temptation of beggar-thy-neighbor policies to strengthen coordination and dialogue, resulting in a rare sense of unity.

These policy responses were very different from those of the Great Depression of the 1930s, and although the global economy inevitably fell into a prolonged downturn in the aftermath of the crisis, it was felt much less painfully than during the Great Depression of the 1930s. In 2010, the unemployment rate in the United States peaked at 10 percent, but this figure is still well below the 25 percent unemployment rate during the Great Depression.

But while the decision-makers succeeded in avoiding the worst outcome, they also "succeeded" in making a series of new mistakes. In Professor Eisengreen's view, policymakers are making these new mistakes precisely because they think they have been very successful in dealing with the financial crisis. They focus too much on the lessons of the Great Depression of the 1930s and ignore the new changes around them.

Since the Great Recession was primarily a crisis caused by bank failures, policymakers naturally focused their attention on commercial banks in response to the 2007-2008 financial crisis, ignoring shadow banking, hedge funds, money markets, and real estate lending financial institutions. Perhaps it was this mistake that prevented policymakers from realizing the catastrophe caused by the collapse of Lehman Brothers. After all, Lehman Brothers is not a commercial bank, and it does not take deposits from the public. Policymakers failed to fully account the fact that financial markets are inextricably linked, and the collapse of Lehman Brothers directly triggered panic in the currency market, where many money market funds held short-term notes issued by Lehman Brothers, and the panic in the money market quickly spread to a run on investment banks. One by one, the dominoes were poured out.

In 2010, when the European economy was still struggling, the ECB hastily decided to exit unconventional policies, and by the spring and autumn of 2011, the European Central Bank raised interest rates twice. This may seem like an unbelievable thing, but the result is self-evident: instead of a recovery, Europe is in a second recession.

Why is the European Central Bank acting this way? This stems in large part from Germany's fear of inflation. In 1923, hyperinflation broke out in Germany, and many historians even believe that this hyperinflation caused popular dissatisfaction with the Weimar Republic to support Hitler, leading to the Nazi coming to power. Germany had enormous influence over the European Central Bank, and the Frenchman Trichet, who was then president of the European Central Bank, was eager to act as noble as the Germans, who were more radical than the Germans. This is yet another misreading of history.

Even if there has ever been a history as memorable as the Great Depression of the 1930s, only half of the lessons have been learned. The Fed's quantitative easing policy has been fiercely condemned by Congress, with politicians slamming the zero-interest rate policy as a new round of asset price bubbles. The U.S. Congress opposes financial bailouts, opposes expanding public spending, and opposes tax increases. Europe slashed its budget deficit in 2012, despite the fact that the economy had fallen back into recession. The UK is not in the eurozone and has its own central bank and an independent currency, but the UK is also busy cutting government spending. This policy reversal and indecision is one of the main reasons for the global economy to fall into a long-term downturn.

There have also been mistakes in financial regulatory reform. In the aftermath of the Great Depression, the U.S. financial regulatory system underwent tremendous changes. The Glass-Steagall Act required commercial and investment banks to be segregated from each other, and the deposit insurance system was established, and the SEC was formally established. But in the wake of the global financial crisis, the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, despite its attempts to propose a series of reforms, has failed to get to the bottom of it. Eisengreen said that it is precisely because policymakers believe that the worst has been averted that they have lost their resolve to reform. Once again, success is the mother of failure.

One cannot cross the same river twice. Nor can one cross two different rivers in the same way. Every turbid current of a financial crisis has an invisible vortex: this time is really different.

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div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}

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