China's economic report card in 2023 is weighty: GDP exceeds 126 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%

The law is gradually rejuvenated, and the new yuan is enlightened.

In 2023, in the face of multiple challenges such as the sluggish recovery of the world economy, the frequent occurrence of natural disasters in China, and the arduous tasks of reform, development and stability, China's main expected goals have been successfully achieved, and a report card of good quality and sufficient weight has been delivered.

On January 17, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that the annual GDP in 2023 will be 1260582 billion yuan, an increase of 5.2% over the previous year at constant prices.

Kang Yi, director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that from the perspective of economic growth, the mainland's GDP exceeded 126 trillion yuan last year, and the growth rate was 2.2 percentage points faster than that in 2022. In terms of quarters, it shows a trend of low in the front, medium and high in the future, and the positive trend is further consolidated. According to comparable prices, the economic increase in 2023 will exceed 6 trillion yuan, which is equivalent to the total economic output of a medium-sized country in a year. The per capita GDP has increased steadily, reaching 89,358 yuan in 2023, an increase of 5.4% over the previous year.

"Looking ahead to the first half of 2024, we believe that macroeconomic pressures on the mainland remain. Considering that the 2023 Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that 'it is necessary to strengthen the counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment of macro policies' and 'give full play to the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary policy tools', it is expected that the mainland central bank will most likely cut the reserve requirement ratio or interest rate in the first half of 2024. From the perspective of asset allocation, the year-on-year decline in PPI, coupled with the central bank's RRR or interest rate cuts, will support interest rate bond prices in the first half of 2024, especially in the first quarter. Zheng Houcheng, chief macroeconomist of Yingda Securities Company, told the China Times.

There are many bright spots in economic growth

I don't know how hard it is.

Kang Yi said that in 2023, the world economy will be sluggish, the international landscape will evolve in a complex manner, the external environment will be more complex, severe and uncertain, and there will be many cyclical and structural contradictions in China, and natural disasters will occur frequently. In such a complex situation, it is even more commendable to achieve such development achievements.

In terms of prices, prices generally maintained a moderate increase, with the annual CPI rising by 0.2% and the core CPI rising by 0.7%. In terms of the balance of payments, exports of goods increased by 0.6% for the whole year, and foreign exchange reserves exceeded $3.2 trillion at the end of the year.

From the perspective of green transformation, the mainland's low-carbon transformation continues to deepen, and the energy consumption structure continues to be optimized. According to preliminary calculations, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption in total energy consumption in 2023 will increase by 0.2 percentage points over the previous year. By the end of 2023, the mainland's installed capacity of renewable energy will account for more than half of the total installed capacity, historically surpassing thermal power. The output of green and low-carbon products is also growing rapidly. In 2023, new energy vehicles will increase by 30.3% over the previous year, ranking first in the world in terms of production and sales, and exports of electric passenger vehicles will increase by 67.1%.

At the same time, people's livelihood has been effectively guaranteed, and people's living standards have been further improved. In 2023, the income of urban and rural residents will grow steadily, the level of public services and social security will continue to improve, and the shortcomings of people's livelihood will also be gradually strengthened, further polishing the background of high-quality development.

The per capita disposable income of residents increased by 6.1 percent, the investment in people's livelihood continued to increase, the investment in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water increased by 23 percent, and the investment in agriculture increased by 9.3 percent, both significantly faster than the total investment.

One bright spot is that last year, China's economic restructuring and transformation and upgrading were more successful, the innovation-driven development strategy was implemented in depth, and innovation investment increased steadily.

According to preliminary estimates, in 2023, the investment in research and experimental development of the whole society will reach 3,327.82 billion yuan, and the intensity of R&D investment will reach 2.64%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points over the previous year. In this year, some major scientific and technological innovations have been reported frequently, especially the high-end, intelligent and green development of the manufacturing industry.

"In accordance with the requirements of the Central Economic Work Conference, it is necessary to 'lead the construction of a modern industrial system with scientific and technological innovation'. Compared with the first article of the 2022 Central Economic Work Conference, 'expanding domestic demand', this attaches more importance to achieving economic transformation, which shows the importance of high-quality development. Li Xunlei, chief economist of Zhongtai Securities, told this reporter when interpreting the data.

This year, it may still maintain a growth rate of more than 5%.

It is worth noting that the mainland's economic growth rate of 5.2% in 2023 is much higher than the global projected growth rate of about 3%, ranking among the world's major economies. The mainland economy is expected to contribute more than 30% to world economic growth in 2023, making it the largest engine of world economic growth. At the same time, the mainland's exports also achieved a slight increase in the expected decline in global trade, and its share of the global market remained stable. In addition, the mainland's price inflation is generally moderate, in stark contrast to the high global inflation.

However, Kang Yi reminded that looking forward to 2024, the external environment is still complex and severe, with insufficient effective domestic demand, overcapacity in some industries, weak social expectations, and many hidden risks. In accordance with the decisions and arrangements of the Central Economic Work Conference, we should effectively respond to these difficulties, solve these problems, and continue to promote the steady and long-term development of China's economy.

"Looking forward to 2024, the effect of stable growth policies will continue to be effective, domestic demand is expected to continue to recover, and economic growth is expected to return to the potential growth level. Stabilizing growth remains the focus of economic efforts in 2024, and the economic growth target is expected to be set at around 5.0%. The economic growth target of about 5.0 percent is in line with the mainland's potential economic growth rate and maintains the rationality and consistency of the mainland's economic growth target. Liu Qiao, dean of Guanghua School of Management of Peking University, said.

Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, also said that at present, there is still a lot of room for repair in residents' commodity consumption, and the policy will maintain a certain degree of steady growth. According to estimates, the year-on-year GDP growth rate is expected to reach about 5.0% in 2024, and the economic operation will further return to the normalized level. Among them, in the first quarter, the GDP growth rate may be around 4.4%, and the follow-up is expected to run stably in the range of 5.0%-6.0%.

Editor-in-charge: Xu Yunqian Editor-in-chief: Gong Peijia