Defend 9 million! The birth population is going to be reversed?

Text: Kaifeng

Population, the future.

01

The latest economic and demographic data are released.

On January 17, the National Bureau of Statistics released its annual economic and demographic data, showing that the annual GDP in 2023 will be 126.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%.

At the same time, the national population at the end of 2023 was 1.409 billion, a decrease of 2.08 million from the end of the previous year, and negative growth for the second consecutive year after 2022.

Among them, the annual birth population was 9.02 million, and the birth rate was 6.39 per thousand, although it hit a new low again, but it was higher than previously expected.

You must know that in the middle of last year, many people inferred that the number of births that year fell below 8 million based on obstetric filing data, and no matter how optimistic the estimate data is, it will not exceed 9 million.

The final result was better than expected, but the number of births was still declining and did not rebound.

The reason for this is that behind the change in the demographic situation, there is not only the impact of the inertial downward trend of the fertility rate, but also the impact of external factors such as the epidemic cannot be ignored.

Pregnancy in September generally takes a whole year from pregnancy preparation to childbirth, resulting in a mismatch between the birth population and the year of pregnancy.

In other words, the number of births in 2023 will not all depend on the pregnancy plan of that year, but will be determined by the second half of 2022 and the first half of 2023.

At that time, it was a turning point in the epidemic. Whether it is the previous vaccination, or the subsequent peak of infection, it has had a significant impact on marriage and childbearing, and many people choose to postpone childbearing.

Therefore, the birth population in 2023 will be affected by the superposition of dual factors, and this year may usher in a phased recovery.

02

In 2024, will the number of births once again stand at the 10 million mark?

According to market forecasts, the rebound in the number of births this year is a high probability event, but there is considerable uncertainty about whether it can cross the 10 million mark.

On the one hand, 2024 is the year of fertility recovery, which is expected to undertake some compensatory births during the epidemic period.

As discussed above, due to the impact of the pandemic, many people have postponed their plans to get married and prepare for pregnancy until the second half of 2023 or even 2024, which will be reflected in the birth population in 2024.

In fact, the number of marriages has rebounded in stages last year. According to the data, in the first three quarters of 2023, 5.69 million couples were registered nationwide, an increase of 245,000 couples year-on-year.

The number of marriages has rebounded, which will also bring some positive support to childbearing.

On the other hand, 2024 is the Year of the Dragon, which is generally a fertility year due to the influence of Confucian culture.

The dragon has a very special symbolic meaning in China, since ancient times, the Chinese people have regarded themselves as "the descendants of the dragon", and the parents have even hoped that "their son will become a dragon".

The Year of the Dragon effect is not only in the mainland, but also in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, as well as in Singapore and other places where overseas Chinese live.

The last year of the dragon was 2012.

At that time, the birth rate of the mainland population reached 14.57 per thousand, and the annual birth population was 19.73 million, the highest year since the beginning of this century, and even surpassed the years when the second or even third children were fully liberalized.

The same is true for Singapore.

According to local statistics, Singapore's total fertility rate in 2000 was 1.6, up from 1.47 in 1999, and 1.29 in 2012, up from 1.2 in 2011.

Therefore, after 12 years, the Year of the Dragon is coming, and it is worth paying attention to whether "Jackie Chan" will give birth to a small peak of fertility.

03

The fertility situation may rebound in stages, but it will take a long time to truly reverse.

After all, the pandemic is only a short-term disruptive factor, and now it is almost gone, and the biggest impact on fertility is marriage and childbearing intentions, marriage and childbearing age, and the number of women of childbearing age.

The trend of marriage and childbearing intentions is difficult to reverse for a while.

In ancient times, marriage and childbirth were the most important things in life, and they were entrusted with the meaning of inheritance and many children. However, in modern society, the decline in marriage and fertility rates is a global phenomenon.

For this reason, economists invented the concept of "marriage economics", which puts the cost of marriage at the forefront: there are not only material costs such as housing, education, childbirth, parenting, and even bride price, but also the opportunity costs of time, energy, and giving up the freedom to be single.

The interweaving of multiple factors has led to a decline in the marriage rate and birth rate, coupled with the influence of concepts such as a low-desire society, more and more people choose not to get married, have children or buy a house.

According to the survey of the National Health Commission, the average number of children planned to be born by women of childbearing age has dropped from 1.76 in 2017 to 1.64 in 2021, of which only 1.54 and 1.48 are "post-90s" and "post-00s" respectively, showing a continuous downward trend.

Even for those who choose to get married, the age of marriage is constantly being postponed, and the once encouraged "late marriage and late childbearing" has become the norm.

According to Qipu data, the national average age of first marriage in 2020 is 28.67 years old, compared with 24.89 years old in 2010, which is nearly 4 years old.

According to data provided by He Dan, director of the Chinese Population and Development Research Center, from 2019 to 2022, the average age of one child increased from 26.4 years to 27.4 years.

Taking a step back, even if the motivation remains high, it may not be possible to hedge against the decline in the number of women of childbearing age.

According to data provided by the National Health Commission, the number of women aged 20-34 during the 13th Five-Year Plan period decreased by 3.4 million per year, and the number of women in the 14th Five-Year Plan period will continue to decrease.

Generally speaking, 20-49 years old is the normal reproductive age, of which 20-34 years old is the prime of childbearing, corresponding to the birth population from 1989 to 2001, and the birth population in these years is declining year by year.

The fertility policy of more than 20 years has directly affected the fertility situation after more than 20 years, which is the embodiment of the cross-generational impact of population inertia.

The good news is that now the birth policy has begun to be gradually liberalized, and the policy system from childbirth, parenting to education is also gradually established, and the best policy environment for childbirth is ushering in.

At the same time, compared with the total population, what is more important is the population structure and population quality, whether it can shift from the demographic dividend to the talent dividend, is the most critical leap.

Whether the best policy environment can give rise to a stronger fertility pattern, we will wait and see.