Several recent legends and truths in the photovoltaic industry
Introduction: What are the hidden assertions in the photovoltaic industry that are far from the truth?
Recently, the photovoltaic sector has ushered in a long-awaited rebound, mainly due to the recent significant depletion of photovoltaic inventories in Europe. This is undoubtedly a "slap in the face" to the pessimistic expectations of the backlog of inventories in Europe in the third quarter of last year.
In stark contrast, the fundamentals of domestic photovoltaic companies, rumors that "the supply is cleared and about to recover", are too optimistic.
You think you have the truth. As everyone knows, you are in the hands of a carefully designed "truth".
What are the hidden assertions in the photovoltaic industry that are far from the truth?
Assertion A: The operating rate of the "wafer duo" is 65% and 95%
According to the data released by the Silicon Industry Branch on January 4, the operating rates of the two downstream first-tier silicon wafer companies have dropped to 65% and 95% respectively, which is rare in recent years. Last week, the two companies were operating at 80 percent and 95 percent, respectively.
The truth:
While operating rates have been exposed, the reality could be even worse.
In January this year, about 41GW of module production was scheduled in China, down about 15% from 48GW in December last year. The overall operating rate dropped from 56% to 50%. In the following February, when the number of days in the month is small and most factories have not yet decided on the Spring Festival holiday, it is estimated that the domestic production schedule may be between 35 GW and 37 GW.
In terms of the logic of the sharp decline in downstream cell and module production schedules, wafer manufacturers' utilization rate below 50% may be closer to the truth.
From the perspective of leading manufacturers, the same is the case.
According to a buyer's on-site visit, LONGi Green Energy (601012. SH) The capacity utilization rate of PERC and Topcon in the Ordos production line is only 40%-50%. The operating rate of other second- and third-tier wafer fabs is less than 30%.
In an interview with the Securities Daily, the person in charge of LONGi Green Energy said that the supply of the company's latest BC battery module products is tight, and the relevant production lines are in full production.
LONGi's "full production" utilization rate is when its own P-type wafer production capacity is used to produce BC cells, i.e., HPBC.
In addition, even though LONGi's HPBC production line is in full production, the sales situation is not satisfactory.
HPBC is a single-sided module, and the back side does not have a power generation function, even if the power conversion efficiency and power are relatively high, but the power station cannot be used. Therefore, LONGi positioned HPBC as a high-end distributed photovoltaic from the beginning, mainly for the European and American markets, and now has a relatively large inventory.
At present, HPBC has no mass production advantage, and only shipped less than 2GW in the first half of last year, most of which were sold to Europe and the United States. However, as Li Zhenguo, founder and president of LONGi Green Energy, mentioned in the exchange, the prices of P-type and N-type batteries have fallen rapidly, and the delivery price of BC batteries is too high, which has affected European shipments.
In other words, there is a surplus of P-type wafers in the current situation, and the production of BC cells is also close to "surplus" due to poor sales. Therefore, there is a considerable degree of moisture in the operating rate of the "full production" of HPBC mentioned earlier.
In addition, according to industry insiders, the local government wants enterprises to increase the operating rate in a full-scale production manner. Once the enterprise does this, it is tantamount to continuing to "base up inventory" in a state of high inventory.
Argument B: There will be no excess of advanced capacity
There is a point of view that has gained a lot of consensus: PV overcapacity is the norm, but advanced capacity is not.
From the third quarter of 2022, many leading domestic companies have joined the Topcon camp and began to expand production capacity. In the second quarter of last year, the market expected that by the end of 2023, PV production capacity would exceed 600GW, and the actual effective capacity would only be around 260GW, and the progress of N-type cell production capacity would be lower than demand.
JinkoSolar (688223.SH), which bet on N-type Topcon early, ushered in a new round of development dividends and regained the first place in the PV module shipment rankings. In August last year, JinkoSolar said on the interactive e-platform page in response to investors' questions that advanced production capacity (referring to Topcon) is still scarce.
As of the end of Q3 2023, JinkoSolar's N-type TOPCON has reached production capacity of more than 55GW. On January 2 this year, JinkoSolar's official WeChat account disclosed its "small goals" for 2024. The first of them is "the first in the integrated scale industry, and the N-type advanced production capacity exceeds 100GW".
JinkoSolar firmly believes that in the next 3-5 years, TOPCON will be the mainstream technology route. Lu Chuan, chairman of Chint New Energy, also judged that the demand growth rate of the photovoltaic industry from 2024 to 2026 will remain at about 30%, and these needs point to advanced production capacity.
The truth:
Topcon从供需有缺口，很快将演变为过剩。
N-type Topcon is indeed the mainstream this year, but it cannot be ignored that it only takes 6 months from construction to production of N-type Topcon at the earliest, and many major PV manufacturers have planned a huge amount of Topcon production capacity in 2023.
Even LONGi Green Energy, which has always believed that Topcon is just a transitional route, will have 30GW of Topcon capacity in full production in the first quarter of this year.
On November 22, in the bidding results of centralized procurement announced by China Energy Group Materials Company, four companies, including LONGi Solar, Chint New Energy, Jinko Solar and Tongwei Solar, shared a total of 10GW of centralized procurement capacity. The lowest winning price for P-type modules was RMB 1.044/W, while for N-type modules was RMB 1.065/W.
The premium of the N-type topcon over the P-type is rapidly disappearing. TOPCON is no longer scarce.
Judgment C: Polysilicon prices have bottomed out, and the PV industry has bottomed out in the second quarter of this year
Based on past experience, once the price of polysilicon bottoms out, the elimination race in the PV industry is expected to end.
According to the Silicon Industry Association, the decline in polysilicon prices has slowed down significantly since December, with the price of N-type polysilicon basically stabilizing at 68,000 yuan/mt. In addition, there has been no significant change in the price of new polysilicon orders in the past week, corporate deliveries are progressing smoothly, and the inventories of leading manufacturers have also remained low. Due to cost pressures, it is difficult for most companies to accept price reductions.
In addition, wafer prices have also stopped declining recently. According to the agency's forecast, the price of polysilicon is expected to remain stable in the short term.
The PV industry is likely to clear faster than expected. Because for every 1 point of decline, it is equivalent to a loss of about 100 million yuan of production capacity of 1GW. Once the first quarter of this year is passed, many companies will be eliminated, so PV is expected to bottom out in the second quarter and then stabilize.
The truth:
The surplus of polysilicon is real.
Global PV module shipments are expected to reach 500GW in 2024, which means that around 1.5 million tonnes of polysilicon will be needed. However, the actual polysilicon production in 2023 has already reached 1.51 million tons.
What's more, the total polysilicon production capacity has increased to 2.316 million tons at the end of last year, and it is expected to add another 1.4 million tons by the end of this year, bringing the total capacity to 3.7 million tons.
This means that even if the PV industry's installed capacity exceeds expectations again this year, the supply of polysilicon still far exceeds the downstream demand.
However, even with polysilicon overcapacity, the industry's average gross profit margin remains at around 20%. Therefore, the limit of silicon has not yet arrived, and it is too early to discuss whether the PV industry has bottomed out.
Under normal circumstances, losses lead to a loss of cash flow and lead to production cuts and shutdowns. Due to the low cost of financing, companies inside and outside the PV industry have participated in the "expansion race", although most of the participants have suffered repeated losses, but the industry has a long time to clear.
The competition of polysilicon companies is not only about cost, but also about family foundation.
For example, Xinte Energy (1799. TBEA (600089.SH), the major shareholder behind it, has two huge open-pit coal mines in the Zhundong coalfield of Xinjiang, with resource reserves of 12 billion tons, and the scale of coal business revenue has increased by more than 40 times in the past ten years. Even if the price of polysilicon falls below 40,000 yuan/ton, companies like Xinte Energy still have enough safety cushions.
On the other hand, many of the projects behind the industrial fund have long-term funding support from local governments. This means that even if they suffer heavy losses, these projects will not be completely shut down or even liquidated in the short term.
In the future, the huge capacity stock and complex demand structure will lengthen the industry in the middle of the cycle of clearance and recovery.
When it comes to overcapacity, at the 2023 PV Industry Annual Conference, Zhong Baoshen, chairman of LONGi Green Energy, said bluntly: "Why is there a crazy expansion of production? The most essential reason is that people who spend money are actually not spending their own money. ”
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