Bitcoin spot ETF passed, opening a new chapter in the crypto industry

This is the first of the vernacular blockchain

2013

Period sharing

作者 | 区块律动 Jaleel Kaori

出品｜白话区块链（ID：hellobtc）

This is a historic moment in the history of Bitcoin and the entire history of the crypto market, and Bitcoin has finally passed and Bitcoin has turned a new page.

 01 

List of 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs passed

At 4 a.m. Beijing time on January 11, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) simultaneously approved 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs, including:

1）Grayscale Bitcoin Trust

2)Bitwise Bitcoin ETF

3）Hashdex Bitcoin ETF

4）iShares Bitcoin Trust

5）Valkyrie Bitcoin Fund

6）ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF

7）Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF

8）VanEck Bitcoin Trust

9）WisdomTree Bitcoin Fund

10）Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund

11）Franklin Bitcoin ETF

Six of the ETFs will be listed on the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), three on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), and two on the NASDAQ.

Among these approved lists and applicants, Grayscale (GBTC) stands out with its approximately $46 billion in assets under management, and Blackrock's iShares also leads the industry with its massive $9.42 trillion in assets under management. It is followed by ARK 21Shares (ARKB), which has about $6.7 billion in assets under management. In contrast, Bitwise (BITB), despite its smaller size, still has about $1 billion in assets under management.

Other significant players include VanEck, which manages about $76.4 billion in assets, WisdomTree (BTCW) with its $97.5 billion in assets under management, and Invesco Invesco Galaxy (BTCO) and Fidelity (Wise Origin), which manage $1.5 trillion and $4.5 trillion in assets, respectively.

Among them, BlackRock and ARK Invest's spot ETF applications have been the most talked about in the market.

BlackRock, who missed only once

Looking back on 2023, BlackRock's application for a Bitcoin spot ETF is seen as an important turning point in the bullish and bearish trend in the crypto market. As an asset manager with more than $10 trillion in assets under management, BlackRock manages assets that far exceed Japan's GDP of $4.97 trillion in 2018. BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street Bank were once known as the "Big Three", controlling the entire index fund industry in the United States.

What's more, BlackRock has an impressive track record of success in approving its ETF applications with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Based on historical data, BlackRock has managed to obtain SEC approval by a ratio of 575 to 1, which means that of the 576 ETFs it has applied for, only one has been rejected.

Therefore, when BlackRock submitted the spot bitcoin ETF documents to the US SEC in June, it caused a lot of heated discussions in the community, and the community generally believed that BlackRock's entry meant that the passage of the bitcoin spot ETF was inevitable.

Most recently, BlackRock invested $10 million in startup capital into its Bitcoin spot ETF on January 3, 2024, which is a significant increase from the $100,000 seed capital initially invested in October. This move demonstrates BlackRock's commitment and anticipation for the launch of the Bitcoin spot ETF. The ETF is named iShares Bitcoin Trust and, once launched, will be traded on the stock market under the symbol IBIT.

In addition, BlackRock is actively engaging with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to address regulatory issues surrounding its Bitcoin spot ETF application. They filed an updated/amended Form S-1 after discussions with the SEC and have met with the SEC several times over the past month. BlackRock has also adapted its approach from a physical to a cash model to comply with SEC requirements, showing their flexibility and enthusiasm to comply with regulatory standards.

ARK Invest, which came from behind

Among the first to pass this list, Ark Invest was among them, as everyone guessed.

On October 12 last year, Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said on social platforms that ARK had submitted an updated prospectus for its Bitcoin spot ETF, when he said that while approval may not come immediately, this "back-and-forth communication" with the SEC is a very positive sign.

At the same time, since August last year, Ark Invest began to gradually reduce its position in GBTC, and many people speculated at that time that the reason why the shrewd Sister Mu began to reduce her position in GBTC may be in preparation for her own Bitcoin spot ETF fund.

According to the ARK Ark Fund holding data, the ARK Ark Fund reduced its holdings of 146,242 GBTC in October, without any purchases. In September, 11,249 GBTC were bought, but 67,494 GBTC were sold. In August, 106,41391 GBTC were bought, but 108,776,240 GBTC were sold.

By December, the ARK Ark Fund had sold more than 2 million shares of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), liquidated its entire remaining GBTC position, and used about half of its $100 million to buy shares in the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO).

ARK Ark purchased shares in the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO).

 02 

With the passage of spot ETFs, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have entered a new starting point in history

The importance of Bitcoin spot ETFs is mainly reflected in two aspects, one is to increase accessibility and popularity, as a regulated financial product, Bitcoin ETFs provide access to Bitcoin for a wider group of investors. With Bitcoin spot ETFs, financial advisors can begin to guide their clients to invest in Bitcoin, which is significant for the wealth management space, especially those who have not been able to invest directly in Bitcoin through traditional channels.

The second is to gain regulatory recognition and enhance market acceptance, SEC-approved ETFs will alleviate investors' concerns about safety and compliance as it provides a more comprehensive risk disclosure, and a more mature regulatory framework will attract more investment, and this regulatory clarity is crucial for market participants to help them conduct business in the cryptocurrency industry.

The passage of Bitcoin spot ETF has undoubtedly brought Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies to a new starting point in history, and we can also perceive the current market sentiment through data such as the estimated market size of Bitcoin spot ETF and the estimated price performance of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin spot ETF market size estimate

ProShares' Bitcoin strategy ETF BITO surpassed $2 billion in assets under management, attracting a net inflow of $506 million in 2023 and $30 million in the first eight days of 2024.

According to a report by Galaxy Digital in October 2023, the approval of the Bitcoin ETF could have a direct impact on the U.S. wealth management industry. The available market for Bitcoin ETFs, as well as the indirect impact and coverage of Bitcoin ETF approvals, will extend far beyond U.S. wealth management channels (e.g., international markets, retail markets, other investment products, and other channels) and may attract more capital into the Bitcoin spot market and investment products.

If we assume that Bitcoin is adopted by 10% of the total available assets in each wealth channel, with an average allocation of 1%, the Galaxy Digital report estimates that there will be $14 billion in inflows in the year following the Bitcoin ETF launch, increasing to $27 billion by the following year, and reaching $39 billion in the third year after the launch.

Bitcoin spot ETF market size and inflow illustration by year

In addition, the second-order effect of Bitcoin ETF approval is likely to have a greater impact on global Bitcoin demand, and other countries are expected to follow in the footsteps of the United States by approving and launching similar Bitcoin ETF products to meet broader investor demand. In the long run, as Bitcoin is monetized, its market share in different asset classes may increase, expanding the size of Bitcoin's market.

Bitcoin price performance estimates

Bitcoin is known as "digital gold", and both are considered to be a store of value, and because of this correlation, it is generally believed that studying the development history and historical market trend of gold ETFs is of great significance for predicting the future trend of Bitcoin ETFs.

In October 2004, the SEC approved the first gold ETF in the United States, StreetTracks Gold Trust (GLD), and the price of gold continued to sprint slightly after the approval. In November of the same year, the U.S. gold ETF GLD was officially listed on the New York Stock Exchange, and the market fell by about 9% in the two months after it began trading, at one point falling below the price at which the ETF was adopted. After almost 8 months of consolidation, gold has only begun to enter a high-speed upward cycle. In the years that followed, gold-backed ETF products sparked a global subscription boom and became a mainstream gold investment vehicle, attracting a lot of money. It is widely believed that the passage of gold-backed ETFs directly contributed to the 10-year bull run for gold since then.

The performance of the asset class before the launch of the ETF

As of 30 September 2023, according to the World Gold Council, global gold ETFs collectively held about 3,282t (approximately US$198 billion in assets under management), accounting for about 1.7% of the global gold supply. At the same time, the total amount of bitcoin held in investment products, including ETPs and closed-end funds, was 842,000 BTC ($21.7 billion in assets under management), accounting for 4.3% of the total issuance supply.

The Galaxy Digital report shows that based on the October 2023 price, gold has a market cap of 24 times that of Bitcoin and holds 36% less than Bitcoin, assuming that the same amount of money inflows will have an 8.8 times greater impact on the Bitcoin market than the gold market. This estimate suggests that if the inflow is $14.4 billion in the year following its approval, the price of Bitcoin could rise by 6.2% in a month and by 74% cumulatively in a year.

Yesterday, Valkyrie Investments co-founder Steven McClurg predicted as much as $200 million to $400 million flowing into his ETF in the week after the pass, bringing the market as a whole to $5 billion in the first few weeks of trading. When asked how Valkyrie plans to make a profit at such low rates, Steven McClurg said that such products could lose money in the early stages, and that's okay, with Valkyrie expecting its ETF to be profitable in the first year of trading.

 03 

An oolong event in the Bitcoin spot ETF application process

As one of the most anticipated developments in the global cryptocurrency market, spot bitcoin ETFs are a product that has extremely control over an already fragile market. Everyone has waited so long that there have been many "fake passes" of oolong incidents before.

In the early morning of January 10, the US SEC officially announced on social media that the Bitcoin spot ETF was approved. This tweet instantly got millions of traffic. Emotions have accumulated at this time, and with this news that the cryptocurrency industry has been waiting for for years, no one will think that there will be any problems with these few lines.

SEC Chairman Gary Gensler said minutes later that "spot ETFs were approved" as false news. The reason is that the SEC's official Twitter was stolen, and the tweet just now was made by hackers.

Translation: @SECGov Twitter account was compromised and unauthorized tweets were posted. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has not approved the listing and trading of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products.

Affected by the false news, the price of Bitcoin fluctuated wildly, rising close to $48,000 and then quickly falling below $45,000, with a short-term fluctuation of nearly 10%. According to Coinglass data, the Bitcoin market has liquidated $56.2 million in the past 1 hour, and long orders account for about 60%.

But this is not the first time that a Bitcoin spot ETF has "faked through" an oolong incident.

In October last year, crypto veteran media outlet Cointelegraph posted the news of the approval of the Bitcoin ETF by the SEC on social media in an all-capital "shock", and in less than half an hour, the tweet was read nearly 1.5 million, showing the huge attention of the cryptocurrency industry. The market also reacted quickly, with the $550 billion market capitalization of Bitcoin breaking multiple integer digits in a row, and the price briefly exceeded $30,000, which seemed to signal the return of the bull market.

TRANSLATION: BREAKING DAY: U.S. SEC APPROVES ISHARES BITCOIN SPOT ETF

However, the market soon realized that the situation was not right. Because of big news like the Bitcoin ETF, mainstream media outlets such as Bloomberg didn't cover anything. James Seyffart, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg, said on social platforms that the news was most likely fake, and there is no evidence to confirm this yet.

Subsequently, with the debunking of rumors from many fronts, the price of Bitcoin fell back above $27,000. After this frenzy, which lasted only about 10 minutes, there were close to $100 million in the market to pay for the fake news, including $72 million in short orders and $26 million in long positions. Now it seems that these "fake" news that were once faked are more like real news that was revealed in advance.

In this era, we have not only witnessed the birth of a financial product "Bitcoin spot ETF", but also witnessed a new crypto era.

Original source: https://www.theblockbeats.info/news/49752

"Disclaimer: This article is the author's independent point of view, does not represent the position of vernacular blockchain, this content is only for the majority of crypto enthusiasts to learn and communicate, does not constitute investment advice or suggestions, please look at it rationally, establish a correct concept, and improve risk awareness. The copyright and final interpretation right of the article belong to Vernacular Blockchain. 』

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(min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .. wx-root,body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body{--appmsgExtra-BG: #F7F7F7}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: 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