After tossing and turning in the South China Sea, Marcos Jr. found that the "big brother" the United States could not be relied on at all, and if the South China Sea issue was to be resolved, it was necessary to find countries related to the South China Sea. As a result, the Philippines turned to Indonesia, the "big brother" of ASEAN, and asked Indonesia to help it comment on the South China Sea issue.
(Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Indonesian President Joko Widodo)
Not long ago, the Philippines dragged the United States into a so-called large-scale joint exercise, and the United States verbally agreed, not only promising to send aircraft carriers and warships, but also saying that it would let Philippine officers board the aircraft carriers to have a look, thus boosting the morale of the Philippine military.
As a result, as soon as the time for the exercise arrived, the scheduled US warship did not arrive, and the aircraft carrier was also late. The duration of the exercise was shortened from three days to two days, and even the sensitive Nansha area did not dare to approach it.
Seeing that the United States is unwilling to help too much in terms of military strength, as an extraterritorial country, it is even more unreliable in legal theory. As a result, the Philippines realized that if it wants to gain an advantage in the confrontation with China, it must rely on the support of ASEAN countries. As a result, Marcos Jr.'s invitation letter was handed to Indonesian President Joko Widodo.
In order to warm up for the meeting between the two presidents, the foreign ministers of the Philippines and Indonesia held a joint press conference in Manila, the capital of the Philippines. Judging from the statement made by the Indonesian side after the meeting, the foreign ministers of the two countries mainly discussed bilateral relations, economic and trade cooperation, and international hot issues. This international hotspot issue includes not only the situation in Myanmar and the Palestinian-Israeli issue, but also the South China Sea issue, which is closely related to both countries.
(Foreign Minister of Indonesia and Foreign Minister of the Philippines)
On the issue of the South China Sea, Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno said that Indonesia has always been committed to maintaining and promoting stability in the South China Sea, and is willing to work with all ASEAN member states, including the Philippines, to finalize the Code of Conduct for Parties in the South China Sea as soon as possible on the basis of the Statement on Maintaining and Promoting Stability in Southeast Asian Waters issued by ASEAN Foreign Ministers on December 30 last year.
As we all know, at the APEC summit held in San Francisco at the end of last year, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. had a brief meeting with mainland leaders at the meeting to discuss the South China Sea issue. After returning home, Marcos Jr. said that the Philippines would develop its own code of conduct to replace the existing plans of China and ASEAN.
However, judging from the current statement of the Indonesian side, the Indonesian side did not adopt the Philippine side's plan, but adopted the original plan of ASEAN and China.
In fact, both in terms of geographical location and historical development, the ties between Indonesia and the Philippines are closer than those with China.
First of all, geographically, the two countries are both Southeast Asian countries, separated only by the Sulawesi Sea and the Philippine Sea, which are relatively close to each other, while China and Indonesia, or most other ASEAN countries, are separated by large water bodies such as the South China Sea. In addition, in the economic and trade fields, both countries are founding members of ASEAN, and have participated in many regional cooperation and treaties and agreements related to the security and economic development of Southeast Asia, and even cooperated a lot in the field of defense and security.
Therefore, Indonesia's current statement is also intended to tell the Philippine side that on the South China Sea issue, Indonesia, like other ASEAN countries, is not helping its relatives.
(Photo of the joint cruise of the United States and the Philippines)
As the largest economy in Southeast Asia, Indonesia has long been regarded as the "leader" among ASEAN countries. This "leader" has always been very clear about its position on the South China Sea issue, and is well aware of the harm that the outbreak of conflict in the South China Sea will bring to ASEAN countries.
First of all, the economic sphere, the South China Sea is an important shipping route around the world, and a large number of trading ships pass through the region every year. If a conflict breaks out, it will severely affect maritime trade and energy supplies, causing regional economic losses, especially for ASEAN countries that rely on export trade and crude oil imports. In addition, China is also ASEAN's largest trading partner, and a conflict with China will seriously affect bilateral trade.
Second, the conflict could lead to a deterioration of the security environment in the South China Sea, and countries need to increase military spending to protect their interests, thus squeezing resources that could be used for social development and improving people's livelihoods. And compared with most ASEAN countries, China's military power is relatively strong, whether it is the navy or the air force, so the outbreak of conflict will put ASEAN countries at risk of the situation getting out of control.
Finally, there is no complete consensus within ASEAN on how to deal with the South China Sea disputes, for example, the Philippines' position is different from that of ASEAN as a whole, and this difference will be further amplified after the outbreak of the conflict, which will lead to the erosion of ASEAN's internal unity, and if the unity is reduced, it will weaken its influence in international affairs.
(China and ASEAN convene a meeting of senior officials on the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea)
What's more, ASEAN member states and China have held 21 high-level official meetings on the implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, and officially launched the third reading of the draft Code. As long as the countries concerned are interested in actively contributing to the process, the implementation of the Guidelines will certainly come in the near future.
However, if the Philippine side listens to the side of the country and starts to draft the text and reformulate the guidelines, then all the efforts made by China and ASEAN countries will be in vain. Therefore, Indonesia and other ASEAN countries are still very clear about the reason of helping relatives and not helping relatives.