The countdown to the 2024 leadership election in Taiwan is underway, and all forces are trying their best to create momentum in their favor.
Both the Kuomintang and the People's Party have emphasized their ability to promote cross-strait exchanges and achieve peace in the Taiwan Strait in response to the demands of the majority of the Taiwanese people to avoid war. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has said in a-for-tat manner that there is no possibility of peaceful reunification between the two sides of the strait, and that if the mainland wants reunification, it will go to war, hoping to consolidate the support of the green camp with a tough posture of confronting the mainland.
In order to embolden the Taiwan independence forces, a think tank under the so-called "Taiwan Ministry of National Defense" concocted a report to exaggerate the difficulty of the PLA's sea-crossing operations and prove to the Taiwan people the rationality of "seeking independence by force."
The report, released on January 3 by Taiwan's National Defense and Security Research Institute, said that the risk of a full-scale PLA attack on Taiwan at this stage is not great. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has great difficulties in amphibious operations on Taiwan Island!
In Chapter 4 of the report, the think tank assesses the PLA's amphibious capabilities, arguing that the PLA has two amphibious ground forces, the Army Amphibious Brigade and the Marine Corps, and that if the PLA launches an amphibious attack on Taiwan, it will be the worst-case scenario for Taiwan. In other words, it is very unlikely that the PLA will launch an amphibious landing operation.
The report predicts that if the PLA starts a military operation, the first wave of naval and air landing troops is estimated to be 50,000.
At the same time, they pointed out two major problems in the PLA's amphibious operations.
First, the PLA has not conducted large-scale amphibious operations in the past, so it has no experience in amphibious landing operations.
Second, Taiwan's geographical environment is not conducive to amphibious operations, and immediately after landing, the PLA will be cut off by mountains, hills, and towns, and it will be difficult for large-scale mechanized troops to conduct mobile operations.
The report predicts that if the mainland decides to attack Taiwan with amphibious, the PLA will first attack the command system of the Taiwan military, and the Taiwan military should protect key military infrastructure, preserve combat strength and establish a decentralized command mechanism to increase the defense resilience of the Taiwan military.
The so-called increase in the defensive resilience of the Taiwan military is to find ways to prolong the time of resistance, and in essence it is still the old way of fantasizing about the United States and Japan rushing to help.
Generally speaking, this report by the Taiwan think tank is still using traditional operational thinking to deduce modern warfare, and the result is bound to be full of loopholes and far from reality!
The reunification of Taiwan will definitely require the PLA to carry out an amphibious landing, and under the condition that our army has an absolute superiority in strength, the PLA can calmly decide when to launch an amphibious landing!
Before that, the PLA will destroy the air defense and command system of the Taiwan army as quickly as possible!
The most important feature of modern warfare is the extensive application of non-contact warfare. In the past 20 years, due to the rapid development of the Continental Army's industrial science and technology, the PLA's medium- and long-range firepower projection capabilities, represented by long-range rocket artillery, various missiles, and unmanned aerial vehicles, have increased substantially. With the support of the world's largest industrial capacity, the PLA is fully capable of destroying the navy, air force, and all air defense forces in the Taiwan region with powerful air force and various land-based long-range firepower in a relatively short period of time without landing.
At present, our warships and planes have all broken through the so-called "center line of the strait," our early warning planes and reconnaissance drones have repeatedly flown around the island, and our military has formed a five-level reconnaissance system for Taiwan at low altitude, medium altitude, high altitude, suborbital, and space levels, and Taiwan's military deployment is already one-way transparent to our military!
Under such circumstances, if military reunification finally begins, the first wave of our army's attack will inevitably be a super-saturated attack on Taiwan's air defense system and naval and air bases, and regardless of whether or not the Taiwan military will organize resistance, within 24 hours, the PLA will firmly grasp air supremacy on Taiwan Island and its surrounding areas.
After controlling air supremacy, the PLA's unmanned aerial vehicle fleet will achieve comprehensive coverage of the military activity points on Taiwan Island and carry out targeted elimination of Taiwan troops who dare to resist, and only then can the PLA have amphibious landing operations.
In the situation where the mainland's huge unmanned aerial vehicle fleet is fully covering the island, the Taiwan military has nowhere to hide, and the scenario in which the Taiwan think tank envisages preserving the military infrastructure for continuous resistance is absolutely impossible! The PLA will completely complete the actual control of the entire island before the United States and Japan react!
The basis of modern warfare is the huge industrial production capacity, and it is precisely because of the world's largest industrial production capacity that the combat strength of the PLA has long since formed a crushing advantage over the Taiwan military, and the Taiwan independence forces' "resisting reunification by force" is absolutely wishful thinking!