(Report Producer/Analyst: Yu Tingze, Shanghai Securities)
1 A leading company in anode coating materials, when the scale expansion is in progress
1.1 The negative electrode coating faucet continues to forge ahead, and the rigidity of downstream demand is guaranteed
The chemical plant was restructured and developed for more than 20 years. The company's predecessor, Xinde Chemical Factory, was established in 2000, and after two restructurings, it was renamed Liaoning Xinde New Material Technology Co., Ltd. in June 2020 and Liaoning Xinde New Material Technology (Group) Co., Ltd. in September 2023.
At present, the company has 4 wholly-owned subsidiaries, including Aoshenglong, Dalian Xinde New Materials, Dalian Xinde Carbon Materials and Xinde (Dalian) New Materials Trading Co., Ltd., and will acquire 80% of the equity of Chengdu Yutai in 2023 to expand the company's anode coating material business scale, which is expected to further increase its market share.
The company's equity is concentrated, and Yin Hongtao and Yin Shiyu are the actual controllers of the company. As of 2023Q3, Yin Hongtao and Yin Shiyu hold 27.92% and 24.13% of the shares of Xinde New Materials, respectively. At the same time, the main core technical personnel indirectly hold 6.64% of the company's shares through the employee stock ownership platform Xinde Enterprise Management, which is used as an equity incentive measure to enhance the stability and enthusiasm of core personnel.
The company is a leading enterprise of anode coating materials. On the one hand, it can be used as a coating agent and binder for the production and processing of lithium battery anode materials to improve the product performance of anode materials, and on the other hand, carbon fiber spinning asphalt can be made through proprietary processes, and asphalt-based carbon fiber products can be obtained after spinning, carbonization and other production processes.
The company is an industry leader in lithium battery anode coating materials, with a market share of between 27% and 39% in 2020, according to the calculation data in the company's prospectus. As of June 30, 2023, the company has an anode coating material production capacity of 40,000 tons/year, and another 15,000 tons/year production capacity is under construction. In addition, Chengdu Yutai, a holding subsidiary, completed the technical transformation in the third quarter and now has a production capacity of 30,000 tons/year of anode coating materials.
Anode coating material is an important raw material commonly used in the production of lithium battery anode material. The addition of anode coating material can improve the reversible capacity of the first charge of the anode material, the cycle stability and the battery rate performance, and its mass accounts for about 5%-15% of the anode material of the lithium battery. In addition to being used in the anode coating of lithium batteries, a small amount of proprietary process products in the anode coating materials produced by the company can also be spun to produce asphalt-based carbon fiber.
In addition, the company's production process produces a by-product rubber plasticizer, which is widely used as a plasticizing material in the rubber industry and can also be used to blend heavy oils.
The company extends the process route upward, using ethylene tar as a raw material, and in the process of preparing the direct raw material coumaron resin, the by-product pyrolysis naphthalene fraction will be obtained, which can be used to extract industrial naphthalene and be used as a carbon black raw material.
1.2 The main business is gradually expanding, and there is still room for improvement in profitability
Over the years, revenue and net profit have shown an upward trend.
Since 2021, driven by the vigorous development of the new energy industry, the downstream lithium battery anode material market has maintained a rapid growth trend, and the company's revenue and net profit have increased significantly.
In 2022, the company achieved operating income of 904 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 83.7%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 149 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%.
In the first half of 2023, the company's performance declined due to factors such as the phased weakening of downstream demand and the digestion of high-cost inventory, and the market demand gradually recovered in the third quarter.
In the first three quarters of 2023, the company achieved operating income of 702 million yuan, an increase of 0.9% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 52 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 57.0%.
Anode coating materials are the company's main business, and by-products include rubber plasticizers and pyrolysis naphthalene fractions.
Since June 2021, the company and its supplier Panjin Futian have changed from a direct procurement model to a commissioned processing model, and the by-product pyrolysis naphthalene fraction obtained from the processing process is sold by the company, thus generating this part of the revenue.
In the first half of 2023, anode coating materials, rubber plasticizers, and pyrolysis naphthalene fractions accounted for 45.5%, 29.3%, and 24.7% of the company's revenue, respectively. Anode coating materials and rubber plasticizers contribute the majority of gross profit.
Affected by the fluctuation of raw material prices, the gross profit margin has decreased since 2022.
The gross profit margin of the company's anode coating materials and rubber plasticizer products is relatively high.
In 2021, the company's gross profit margin fell to 40.58% due to the delay of cracked naphthalene fraction products with low gross profit margin.
The decrease in gross margin in 2022 was related to the increase in raw material prices. From 2019 to 2021, direct materials accounted for more than 70% of the company's anode coating material business costs.
With the sharp rise in overall oil prices since 2022, the prices of the company's core raw materials ethylene tar and coumaron resin have shown an upward trend, of which the average purchase unit price of ethylene tar has increased from 3,206 yuan/ton in 2021 to 4,642 yuan/ton in 2022, an increase of 38%, resulting in a decrease in the gross profit margin of the main business.
2 Negative electrode coating materials: the demand for new energy is growing steadily, and the industry is small and beautiful
2.1 Negative electrode coating can significantly improve the performance of lithium-ion batteries
SEI film affects the first charge and discharge efficiency, cycling performance, and rate performance of lithium batteries. When a liquid lithium-ion battery is charged and discharged for the first time, the electrolyte reacts at the solid-liquid interface of the electrode, forming a passivation layer covering the surface of the electrode material. The passivation layer has the characteristics of a solid electrolyte, an electronic insulator, but an excellent conductor of lithium ions.
Lithium ions can be freely embedded and expelled through this passivation layer, so this passivation layer is called the solid electrolyte interface, or SEI film for short.
The growth of SEI film will lead to irreversible capacity loss, which is one of the main factors causing the loss of active lithium in batteries under normal use conditions, reducing the charge-discharge efficiency and cycling performance of electrode materials.
The widely used graphite anode amplifies the drawbacks of SEI films. According to GGII data, in 2022, graphite electrodes accounted for 99% of mainland anode materials.
However, there are disadvantages of graphite anode: due to the poor compatibility of graphite to electrolyte, large volume of solvent molecules and lithium ions often co-embed in the graphite layer during the charging and discharging process, causing the graphite layer to expand and peel off, thereby reducing the battery capacity and life. The inhomogeneity of the graphite surface makes it difficult to form a uniform and dense SEI film during the first charge and discharge of the battery, and makes the first charge and discharge efficiency low and the cycle performance poor.
Carbon coating can effectively improve the performance of lithium batteries.
The main function of surface coating is to cover the active site of the surface of natural graphite, reduce the occurrence of irreversible side reactions, reduce the specific surface area of natural graphite, inhibit the formation of SEI film, isolate graphite particles from the electrolyte, prevent the co-insertion of solvents from causing the decrease of capacity, restrict and buffer the volume expansion of graphite, and increase the stability of circulation.
The layer spacing of amorphous carbon materials is larger than that of graphite, and the diffusion performance of lithium ions can be improved when used to coat the graphite anode, which is equivalent to forming a buffer layer of lithium ions on the outer surface of graphite, thereby improving the high-current charge-discharge performance of graphite materials.
On the other hand, the amorphous carbon comes into contact with the solvent to prevent the stripping of the graphite layer due to the co-intercalation of solvent molecules, which expands the selection range of electrolyte systems and improves the cycling stability of the electrode material.
Asphalt coating effectively improves the first charge and discharge efficiency of the anode material, and improves the cycling performance and rate performance of the graphite anode. For example, according to Deng Lingfeng et al.'s "Research on Coated Natural Graphite as Anode Material for Lithium-ion Batteries", the first charge and discharge efficiency of natural graphite can be increased from 72% to more than 90%, the irreversible capacity loss can be reduced from 125.2 mAh/g to 32.5 mAh/g, the specific capacity is increased from 290.8 mAh/g to 365.3 mAh/g, and the capacity retention rate after 100 cycles is increased from 55.4% to 93.9%, which effectively improves the high-current charge and discharge capacity.
Under the demand for fast charging, the penetration rate of coating materials is expected to continue to increase. As lithium batteries are widely used in electric vehicles, fast charging capacity has become one of the most important performance indicators of graphite anode. However, the capacity, stability and safety of graphite under high-rate charging and discharging cannot meet the needs of power batteries. The surface coating of graphite can improve the fast charging performance of graphite in the following three aspects:
(1) improve the first coulombic efficiency of graphite, (2) prevent graphite peeling caused by solvent molecule co-intercalation, and (3) inhibit lithium plating on the surface of graphite electrode to improve its safety performance.
We believe this is critical to the commercialization of lithium batteries. Cladding materials with higher softening points work better. The main parameters of the anode coating material include softening point, coking value, etc.
Generally speaking, the higher the softening point of asphalt, the higher the degree of molecular polymerization, the less the content of light components constituting asphalt, the smoother the molecular decomposition and polycondensation reaction in the carbonization process, the less gas escape, the higher the carbon residue rate, the better the coating effect, and the better the rate performance of the anode material. According to the different softening points, the coating materials can be divided into four categories: low temperature, medium temperature, medium high temperature, and high temperature products, and the added value of the products is increased in turn.
Silicon-based anodes are one of the future development trends, and cladding materials are also needed.
The specific capacity of silicon-based anode can reach up to 4200 mAh/g, which is more than 10 times that of natural graphite, and it is currently the highest specific capacity anode material. In addition, silicon-based materials are regarded as ideal next-generation anode materials due to their low lithium-intercalation potential (<0.5 V vs Li+/Li) and extremely high reserves (silicon is second only to oxygen in the earth's crust). Tesla was the first to launch the 4680 large cylindrical battery in 2020 and began to be installed in the first half of 2022, and the domestic 4680 large cylindrical battery is expected to achieve mass production by the end of 2023.
For silicon-based anode materials, their high expansion limits the large-scale popularization in the past, while 4680 cylindrical batteries have a higher tolerance for volume expansion due to their structural advantages, which can effectively help the popularization of silicon-carbon anodes.
Like graphite materials, silicon materials can also be coated with asphalt to form a carbon coating on the surface of silicon materials, stabilize the SEI film and buffer volume expansion to enhance cycling performance, thereby effectively improving the stability of electrode materials, which is expected to promote its large-scale application.
Petroleum-based spun bitumen is the main production route for coated bitumen.
The technical routes of anode coated asphalt mainly include petroleum-based spinnable asphalt and coal-based spinnable asphalt.
At the same softening point, although the coking value and ash content of the products produced by the petroleum-based spinnable asphalt technology route are slightly lower, the insoluble matter content of quinoline is much lower than that of coal-based spinnable asphalt products.
After the quinoline insoluble impurity enters the negative electrode, it will increase the expansion coefficient of the negative electrode and reduce the cycle performance and service life of the negative electrode product, so the safety and quality of the petroleum-based route products are better. The domestic production capacity is dominated by petroleum-based spun asphalt routes.
2.2 The competition pattern of the anode coating industry is excellent, and the company's advantages as a leader are fully demonstrated
In the context of the global energy transition, lithium battery shipments are growing rapidly.
Since 2021, the growth rate of global lithium battery shipments has increased significantly.
According to EVTank, in 2022, global lithium-ion battery shipments reached 957.7 GWh, up 70.3% year-over-year. Among them, the shipment of automotive power batteries was 684.2 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 84.4%, accounting for 71.4%, and the growth rate of energy storage batteries was obvious, with a year-on-year increase of 159.3 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 140.3%.
EVTank expects global lithium-ion battery shipments to reach 6,080GWh by 2030, with a CAGR of 22.8% from 2022-2030.
The production of anode materials is relatively concentrated, and the head enterprises have obvious advantages.
According to EVTank, global anode material shipments will reach 1.556 million tons in 2022, of which China's anode material shipments will reach 1.433 million tons, accounting for 92%.
According to the Huajing Industry Research Institute, the concentration of the anode material industry in mainland China is relatively high, with CR3 exceeding 50%.
The technical barriers of the anode material industry are high, and in the context of low-end overcapacity, the leading manufacturers are expected to seize the opportunity by virtue of product quality advantages and scale advantages, and the industry concentration is expected to be further improved.
Based on a rough estimate of the 10% addition volume and the unit price of 14,000 yuan/ton, we estimate that the market size of anode coating materials in 2022 will be about 2 billion yuan.
The company is firmly in the leading position of anode coating materials, with an existing production capacity of 70,000 tons.
Anode coating material is a subdivision of the upstream of anode material, and there are few participants in the industry market, mainly including Xinde New Material, Xinjiang China Carbon Technology, German Lütge, Dalian Mingqiang, Liaoning Aoyida, Liaoning Runxing and other companies, among which Xinde New Material has the advantage in production capacity.
According to the prospectus, the company's market share in the anode coating material industry in 2020 is between 27-39%. After the completion of the technical transformation in the third quarter of 2023, the company's Dalian base has a production capacity of 40,000 tons, and the Chengdu base has a production capacity of 30,000 tons, with a total production capacity of 70,000 tons.
Anode material manufacturers have a weak willingness to extend to coating materials.
The cost of raw materials accounts for 30% of the cost of anode materials, of which the coating materials account for about 10%, that is, 3% of the total cost, accounting for a relatively small amount, the upstream extension of anode manufacturers does not reduce the cost obviously, and the anode material manufacturers are mostly located in the graphite industrial park, while the production of anode coating materials is a chemical reaction process, and there are administrative approval obstacles for anode manufacturers to put into production of coating materials, so the willingness of mainstream anode manufacturers to extend the industrial chain to the coating materials is weak.
The company has stable customer resources.
The concentration of anode materials is high, and the company's customers cover the main leading enterprises of anode materials, including Jiangxi Zichen (a wholly-owned subsidiary of Putailai), Shanshan Co., Ltd., beiteri, and Kaijin Energy, and the supply of two of them exceeds 50%.
Due to the strict technical standards of anode materials, the product certification cycle is long, and the company will enter the downstream supply chain with high-quality products, which will form a high certification barrier in a short period of time to ensure that the company maintains a high market share in a certain cycle.
2.3 By-product rubber plasticizers: the scale of the industry is gradually expanding
Rubber plasticizers belong to rubber additives and are important raw materials to improve rubber properties.
Rubber additives can improve the performance of rubber products in many aspects, such as improving the service life of rubber products and improving rubber processing performance, which is an indispensable raw material for the rubber industry.
The company's by-product rubber plasticizer belongs to the processing additives in the rubber additives, after adding the plasticizer to the rubber, the intermolecular force of the rubber can be reduced, thereby reducing the glass transition temperature of the rubber, making the rubber plasticity and fluidity, convenient for calendering, extrusion and other molding operations, and at the same time can also improve some physical and mechanical properties of vulcanized rubber, such as reducing hardness and tensile stress, giving higher elasticity and lower heat generation, improving cold resistance, etc., is one of the more common raw materials in the rubber industry. In addition, rubber plasticizers can also be used to blend heavy oils.
Automotive demand is driving the rapid development of the rubber additives industry. According to the China Rubber Industry Association, about 90% of the applications of rubber additives are related to automobiles, of which about 70% of the production of rubber additives is directly used in tire production.
Continental's automobile ownership base is large and continues to grow, from 172 million units in 2015 to 319 million units in 2022, with a CAGR of 9.2%, we believe that the demand for tire renewal is expected to bring continuous growth to rubber additives, and Continental's automobile production has generally stabilized, with production fluctuating between 25 million and 28 million units since 2018, and the demand for tires in the supporting market is relatively stable. Therefore, we believe that the demand for tires in the automotive sector will continue to grow steadily, thereby driving the growth of the rubber additives industry.
The mainland rubber additives industry is developing rapidly.
From 2011 to 2020, the output of rubber additives in mainland China increased from 757,300 tons to 1,239,000 tons, with a CAGR of 5.6%.
As of the end of 2020, China's rubber additives accounted for nearly 75% of the world's output, ranking first in the world, and the international competitiveness of the industry has been significantly improved.
3. The integrated layout reduces costs and increases efficiency, and the profit center is expected to be improved
3.1 Technical advantages guarantee core competitiveness
Core technology builds the foundation of the business.
The company has accumulated rich experience in the field of lithium battery anode coating materials, and has the integrated construction and operation capabilities of the whole production line of anode coating materials, and its overall R&D and technological innovation capabilities are in a leading position in the industry.
As of the first half of 2023, the company and its subsidiaries have 100 patented technological achievements with independent intellectual property rights (including 6 invention patents).
The softening point of the company's anode coating material covers 110-280oC, and in the production process, the company's patented technology adopts the air oxidation-heat condensation composite process that undergoes multiple steps of primary distillation/primary polymerization/air oxidation/secondary distillation/secondary polymerization to modify ethylene tar asphalt, and the asphalt products prepared have the characteristics of high coking value, low quinoline insoluble content, high softening point and excellent spinnability, and excellent performance as a negative electrode coating material.
Compared with companies in the same industry that adopt the technical route of petroleum-based spinnable asphalt, under the same softening point, the upper limit of the coking value of the products that the company can produce is generally higher, the insoluble matter and ash content of quinoline are lower, and it can cover a wide range of coking values, and the product system is richer.
R&D investment continues to increase, and forward-looking layout of new application scenarios.
The company's R&D expenses showed an increasing trend from 2018 to 2022, and the R&D expenses in 2022 were 43 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 85.7%. In view of the silicon-based anode materials with good future development prospects, the company has carried out a forward-looking layout and developed the surface binding material of AS-G lithium battery silicon carbon anode particles, so that the volume expansion of the silicon carbon anode in the process of charging and discharging can be effectively controlled, and the cycle performance and conductivity of the silicon material are improved, so as to ensure that the company has strong competitiveness in the field of anode coating materials in the future.
3.2 The product structure is upgraded, and the cost of raw materials accounts for a high proportion
The product structure is slightly inclined to high temperature and medium temperature products.
The company's products can be divided into low temperature, medium temperature, medium high temperature and high temperature anode coating materials according to the softening point, and the product performance is improved in turn, and the selling price is also different, and the price difference between high temperature and low temperature products is about 4000 yuan/ton.
From 2019 to 2021, the company's sales proportion of high-temperature anode coating materials increased from 37% to 45%, and the sales proportion of low-temperature anode coating materials decreased from 15% to 4%.
The cost of raw materials accounts for a high proportion and is linked to crude oil.
The company's anode coating material cost is dominated by direct material cost, accounting for more than 70%. Rubber plasticizer and pyrolysis naphthalene fraction are by-products, which are stably produced with the main product anode coating material, and their production costs are mainly based on direct material costs.
The company's anode coating material belongs to the petroleum-based spinnable asphalt technology route, and the main raw materials are Gumaron resin and ethylene tar, and its cost is more related to crude oil prices.
3.3 Extend the industrial chain to ethylene tar, and make concerted efforts in the north and south bases
Dalian base: The raw materials extend from coumaron resin to upstream ethylene tar.
The company's original production capacity of 25,000 tons of anode coating materials comes from Dalian Aoshenglong's "annual output of 20,000 tons of lithium battery anode coating material project", and the raw materials are mainly Gumaron resin and road asphalt.
In 2021, the company and Panjin Futian, a supplier of Coumeron resin, changed from the original direct procurement model to the entrusted processing model, that is, the company procures and provides the raw material ethylene tar required for processing to Panjin Futian, and Panjin Futian collects the entrusted processing fee, and the finished Coumaron resin is used by the company to produce anode coating materials.
This commissioned processing model is a transitional mode before the fundraising project is put into production, which facilitates the cooperation between the company and ethylene tar suppliers and lays a solid foundation for the development of the fundraising project.
The fund-raising project "Industrialization and Upgrading Construction Project with an Annual Output of 30,000 tons of Carbon Materials" extends the raw material end to ethylene tar upstream, which has the advantage of integrated production capacity. Ethylene tar is more bulk than coumaron resin, and extending the industrial chain can enhance the company's control over upstream raw materials, in addition, it can also improve the uniformity and product yield of the company's anode coating material products, and reduce costs. The first phase of the project with an annual output of 15,000 tons has been successfully put into operation in November 2022.
The integrated production route helps reduce costs and increase efficiency.
In the integrated process route, ethylene tar is no longer an intermediate product, coumaron resin, but directly transported into the anode coating material production workshop through pipelines after blending, separation, polymerization and other processes.
From the perspective of the procurement process, the process route reduces the transportation cost of the supplier to purchase ethylene tar for the production of coumaron resin, as well as the cost of packaging of coumaron resin, warehousing, warehousing and warehousing labor and testing costs; from the perspective of the production process, the integrated route is equivalent to combining the two production processes into one section, which greatly reduces the number of production personnel, eliminates the cooling and granulation process required for ethylene tar to coumaron resin, and the raw material melting process required for coumaron resin to the final product, and greatly reduces energy consumption.
In addition, the upstream extension of raw materials to ethylene tar enables the company to control product technical parameters from the raw material side, reduce impurity content, and improve product quality.
We estimate the production cost per ton of anode coating material under the integrated process route, and the main assumptions include: (1) due to the simplification of the process flow, the direct labor per ton is reduced by 70%;(2) the energy consumption cost per ton is reduced by 50%, and the other manufacturing cost per ton is reduced by 20%;(3) the freight cost of coumaron resin is saved under the integrated route, and the freight cost per ton of product is reduced by 50%. According to our calculations, according to the price level in 2021, compared with the commissioned processing mode, the production cost of a single ton of anode coating material in the integrated mode will decrease by 1,045 yuan, a decrease of 14%.
Chengdu base: obvious advantages in production costs. The company acquired 80% of the equity of Chengdu Yutai in June 2023 and became its controlling shareholder. Chengdu Yutai's production capacity has completed the technical transformation in 2023Q3, and the existing production capacity of 30,000 tons/year of anode coating materials is available. The company takes the acquisition of Chengdu Yutai as an opportunity to build a production base in the southwest region, which will effectively improve the response speed and service quality of downstream customers concentrated in the Yunnan-Guichuan region, and increase market share.
Similar to the fundraising project, Yutai also adopts an integrated production route using ethylene tar as a raw material, with additional advantages:
(1) Lock-in of raw material resources: Chengdu Yutai is the only enterprise in southwest China that has obtained the ethylene tar supply qualification of PetroChina Sichuan Petrochemical Co., Ltd., and the company has locked in more than 100,000 tons of upstream high-quality raw material resources through this acquisition;
(2) Significant reduction in raw material procurement costs: Sichuan Petrochemical directly transports ethylene tar and other raw materials to Chengdu Yutai through pipelines, which can greatly reduce the transportation cost of raw materials and the risk of procurement price fluctuations, and the comprehensive procurement cost of ethylene tar is reduced by about 300 yuan per ton compared with the company's original plant, strengthening the company's supply chain guarantee system;
(3) Reduction of energy consumption cost: Sichuan is rich in natural gas resources, the unit price is low, and the unit energy consumption cost is lower than that of the original production area;
(4) Location advantage: Chengdu Yutai is located in the core area of Yunnan-Guichuan, with a concentrated area for radiation anode expansion, which has a strong location advantage, which effectively improves the response speed and service quality of downstream customers concentrated in Yunnan-Guichuan region, and also reduces sales and transportation costs.
4 Earnings Forecasts and Valuations
Anode coating material business: The company is a leading enterprise of anode coating materials in China, and the development of the downstream lithium battery industry promotes the continuous expansion of the market scale of anode coating materials, and the company has strong competitiveness.
In the first half of 2023, operating income declined due to the adjustment of selling prices to seize the market share of low- and medium-temperature products.
In the future, with the gradual launch of the Dalian fundraising project and Chengdu Yutai's technical transformation capacity, as well as the improvement of the expected profit center under the trend of integrated process route, we expect that the revenue growth rate of the company's anode coating materials business from 2023 to 2025 will be 7.20%, 47.06% and 22.90% respectively, and the gross sales margin will be 26.95%, 34.24% and 35.39% respectively.
Rubber Plasticizers: By-product rubber plasticizers are produced together with the main product anode coating material, and the trend of revenue and earnings is expected to be broadly consistent. We expect that from 2023 to 2025, the revenue growth rate of the company's rubber plasticizer business will be -5.47%, 42.11% and 20.00% respectively, and the gross sales margin will be 34.00%, 38.00% and 40.00% respectively.
Pyrolysis naphthalene fraction business: With the gradual commissioning of the integrated production line, the company's pyrolysis naphthalene fraction business has expanded. We expect that from 2023 to 2025, the revenue growth rate of the company's rubber plasticizer business will be 47.25%, 43.83%, and 20.00%, respectively, and the gross sales margin will be 13.35%, 19.22%, and 19.53%, respectively.
We forecast that the company's operating income from 2023 to 2025 will be 10.44/15.06/1.826 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.5%, 44.3% and 21.2% respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 0.98/2.71/338 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of -34.3%, 176.8% and 24.6% respectively, and EPS will be 0.96/2.66/3.31 yuan / share, and the corresponding PE will be the closing price on January 4, 2024 45.95x、16.60x、13.32x。
The company is the only listed company in the anode coating material industry.
According to the characteristics of the company's products, we selected lithium battery anode material companies Putailai and Xiangfenghua, and coating material leader Yishitong as comparable companies, and adopted the PE valuation method, referring to the industry average valuation level of 33xPE in 2024.
5 Risk Warning
Changes in the price of raw materials.
The cost of raw materials accounts for a large proportion of operating costs, and the price changes of raw materials will have a greater impact on the company's profitability. If the price of raw materials fluctuates significantly in the future, the company's profitability may fluctuate accordingly.
Downstream demand is less than expected.
There is uncertainty about the prosperity of the lithium battery industry downstream of the company's anode coating material products, and if the downstream demand is less than expected, it will have a greater impact on the company's main business income.
Projects under construction are not progressing as expected.
The company currently has projects under construction such as fundraising projects, and if the progress of new projects is not as expected, it will have a greater impact on the company's revenue. ——————————————————
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