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What is the trend of real estate in 2024? At the beginning of this year, a number of institutions issued forecasts, and their views were surprisingly unanimous.
However, we also found that everyone's views on the real estate market in 2024 are very different, and the difference between perception and data is relatively large, which truly reflects the current situation of real estate is very tangled.
The data shows that with the dual blessing of the concentrated release of demand at the end of the year and the emergence of policy effects, the real estate market will be in a tail-end market at the end of 2023, especially in November and December, new and second-hand houses in first-tier cities will heat up at the same time.
Beijing and Shanghai carried out a relatively large optimization of the property market policy in December, eliminating the biggest obstacle to buying a house with rigid demand and improved demand, and the blessing effect is very obvious. Let's take a brief look at the data.
In November 2023, 12,545 second-hand houses were transacted in Beijing, up 17.8% month-on-month and 16.7% year-on-year, and 14,100 second-hand houses were transacted in Shanghai, up 6% month-on-month.
In December 2023, 14,774 new homes were transacted in Beijing, up 23.1% month-on-month and 60.4% year-on-year, and 14,214 second-hand houses were transacted, up 1.3% month-on-month and 43.3% year-on-year.
In December, 19,415 new homes were sold in Shanghai, up 21.8% month-on-month and 10.5% year-on-year.
These data look magical, and many people directly expressed their disbelief in the comment area, because even in Beijing and Shanghai, they may not feel the heat of the property market, but some people are still saying that their houses have not been sold at a reduced price.
Obviously, data and market perception show two heavens of ice and fire, then there must be a problem with the judgment of one party, but data is data, and you can't believe it.
Therefore, in December 2023, the property market in first-tier cities has run a wave of good markets, which is a fact. On this basis, it is easier to understand the predictions of many institutions for the property market in 2024 at the beginning of the year.
The China Index Research Institute believes that real estate will still be under pressure in 2024, but if policies such as urban village transformation are carried out as scheduled, the economy continues to recover, and the willingness to buy homes improves, the market may be expected to gradually bottom out and stabilize.
China Real Estate Data Research Institute believes that it is necessary to look at real estate without real estate, strive to stabilize China's economy with more and more factors, inject more new energy into income expectations, employment expectations and economic expectations, and promote real estate from both ends of supply and demand.
According to the analysis of the research report of Bank of China Securities, the recent policy has a positive effect on the reshaping of confidence in the real estate market and the expected recovery, and it is expected that the sales decline in 2024 will be narrower than that in 2023.
These views are surprisingly consistent, and it is generally believed that the property market will most likely stabilize or even rebound in 2024. Behind these forecasts, there are clearly three important factors at work.
First, everyone is generally optimistic about China's economy, and in 2023, the foundation has been consolidated, risks have been prevented, and a series of policy measures have been introduced, and it is a high probability that the economy will improve in 2024.
Second, as we just said, in November and December 2023, first-tier cities have run a good market. Many people say that only when the market in first-tier cities heats up can the national property market be driven.
Third, a series of policy measures will be introduced in 2023, and according to incomplete statistics, there will be more than 600 property market regulation policies across the country, and these policy measures will be implemented in 2024 and play a positive role.
Therefore, in 2024, the real estate policy environment is expected to remain accommodative, while there is still room for policies at both the supply and demand ends.
On the demand side, first-tier cities are expected to optimize suburban purchase restrictions according to regional policies, core second-tier cities may completely cancel purchase restrictions, and third-tier cities below are likely to promote the release of housing demand through the issuance of housing purchase subsidies.
On the supply side, the financing environment for real estate enterprises is expected to further improve, and the supporting measures for the construction of the "three major projects" are expected to accelerate the implementation.
Therefore, in 2024, market confidence and expectations in first-tier cities are expected to improve, and transaction volume is expected to return to positive, and transactions in strong second-tier cities may also be restored compared with 2023, but cities below third-tier cities are still not optimistic.
However, the market seems to be generally pessimistic, especially in the comments section on the internet, where many people are not bullish on real estate.
Of course, we can understand that there are a lot of emotional factors in this, people who own a house are disappointed with the fact that the market is getting colder and the mortgage pressure is getting bigger, and those who don't have a house still think that the house price is too high to afford it, and hope that it will fall further.
To sum up, we remain cautiously optimistic about the property market in 2024, which will be a year when the property market has successfully bottomed out, which will be more stable and healthy, and there will be no more big ups and downs.