Demand is sluggish, Saudi oil products have dropped prices more than expected, and oil prices have fallen by more than 4 in intraday trading!

Overview of the global market

Fed officials continued to be hawkish, weighing on market expectations of interest rate cuts, but the market was not "cold". The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell below 4.0% and retreated 10 basis points at one point, away from a three-week high. The U.S. dollar index fell from a three-week high, and the offshore yuan fell 200 points to 7.17 intraday before turning higher.

Crude oil fell sharply, with U.S. oil closing down more than 4% to record the biggest drop in more than seven weeks, and Brent oil falling more than 3% to record the biggest drop in nearly four weeks. London copper fell to a low level in more than three weeks for seven consecutive years.

In the domestic market, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 fell more than 4%, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 2,900 points.

Global news

1. Crude oil demand is sluggish, Saudi oil products have dropped prices more than expected, and oil prices have fallen more than 4% intraday

Saudi Arabia lowered the official price of its main oil product February futures to Asia by $2 to the lowest since November 2021 due to sluggish demand, a drop that exceeded market expectations of $1.25.

2. The two major Fed officials continue to talk "hawkish"

Fed Governor Bowman said that the right time to cut interest rates has not yet been reached, that there are still significant upside risks to inflation and that caution is still needed, that there is still a willingness to raise interest rates if inflation stalls, that a rate cut will ultimately be appropriate as inflation falls, and that policy seems to be restrictive enough to achieve the 2% inflation target.

Fed's Bostic said it expects the Fed to cut interest rates for the first time in the third quarter. Bostic reiterated that two 25bp rate cuts by the end of the year would be appropriate, and that policy would still need to remain tight at the end of the year, but that inflation progress would support rate cuts.

3. FAA: The Boeing 737-9 will remain grounded until inspections are completed

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) said the Boeing 737-9 will remain grounded until operators complete enhanced inspections, according to an emailed statement. The FAA has approved methods that comply with the agency's Boeing 737-9 Emergency Airworthiness Directive. Enhanced overhaul includes left and right door exit plugs, door components and fasteners. The FAA said it will continue to support the National Transportation Safety Board's (NTSB) investigation into Alaska Airlines Flight 1282.

4. New York Fed survey: Inflation expectations for the year ahead fell to a three-year low

The New York Fed's December survey showed that consumers' inflation expectations for the year ahead fell to a three-year low of 3.01% in December from 3.36% in the previous month.

5. Thailand's prime minister urged the central bank to consider lowering interest rates

Thai Prime Minister Saita Thazin has urged the central bank to consider lowering borrowing costs to support the economy, hinting at a new round of divergence between fiscal and monetary policymakers. As consumer prices continue to fall, this provides room for a shift to accommodative policy, Saita said. The prime minister called for interest rate cuts, and a few days ago he also urged monetary authorities to take into account the risks to economic growth when setting policy.

6. In addition to the Houthis, the Red Sea may add another risk of instability, and Ethiopia recognizes the independence of Somaliland

In order to obtain the right to use the port of Somaliland, Ethiopia recognizes the independence of Somaliland, and may be the first country in the world to recognize the independence of Somaliland, and the Somaliland issue is the bottom line of territorial sovereignty that the Somali government is extremely sensitive to, and the Red Sea coast is once again facing a potential security crisis.

7. The United States continues to tighten export control measures on chips to China, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs: It is an out-and-out economic bullying

At the regular press conference of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on January 8, a reporter asked that the United States has continuously tightened export control measures on chips to China and increased pressure on Chinese semiconductor companies. Do you have any comment?

In this regard, spokesperson Mao Ning said that the United States has continuously increased its chip export control measures against China on the grounds of so-called "national security" and unreasonably suppressed Chinese semiconductor companies, which is an out-and-out act of economic bullying. The U.S. imposition of semiconductor export control measures against China constitutes a discriminatory practice against China and violates the most-favored-nation principle stipulated in Article 1 of the GATT.

8. Zou Lan of the Central Bank: The People's Bank of China will strengthen counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment, and exert efforts from the three aspects of aggregate, structure and price

Zou Lan, director of the Monetary Policy Department of the People's Bank of China, said that the People's Bank of China will strengthen counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment, and exert efforts in three aspects: aggregate, structure and price, so as to create a good monetary and financial environment for high-quality economic development. In terms of aggregate volume, the People's Bank of China will comprehensively use basic monetary tools such as open market operations, medium-term lending facilities, re-lending and re-discounting, and reserves to provide strong support for the scale of social financing and the reasonable growth of monetary credit.

9. Ministry of Commerce: Promote the continuous expansion of consumption and improve the market and circulation system

From January 7th to 8th, the National Business Work Conference was held in Beijing. The meeting emphasized the need to promote the continuous expansion of consumption and improve the market and circulation system. Stimulate consumption potential, cultivate and expand new consumption, stabilize and expand traditional consumption, and promote the upgrading of service consumption quality. Accelerate the construction of a trade power. Upgrade trade in goods, expand intermediate goods trade, cross-border e-commerce exports, innovate trade in services, and develop digital trade. Build the brand of "Invest in China" and promote the stable quantity and quality of foreign investment.

10. Guangzhou: The room ticket is common in the whole city and can be transferred and limited to one transfer

The relevant person in charge of the Guangzhou Municipal Bureau of Planning and Natural Resources said that in order to encourage the expropriated to choose "house ticket resettlement", the expropriated person will be given a certain policy reward in addition to the basic compensation amount according to the regulations, and the specific proportion shall be formulated by each district itself. The house ticket is valid for the whole city, and you can buy houses in the "Housing Supermarket" across districts. The real-name system is implemented for room tickets, and no pledge financing or illegal cashing out is allowed. Room tickets are transferable. Under the premise that the expropriated household meets the premise of owning a house in Guangzhou, the house tickets are allowed to be transferred between the expropriated persons of the project. Room tickets can only be transferred once. The period of use of the room ticket is calculated from the date of issuance of the room ticket, and the maximum period of use is 18 months.

Industry information

1. It's about automotive chips! The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a blockbuster guide

The General Office of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on printing and distributing the guidelines for the construction of the national automotive chip standard system. The goal is to formulate more than 30 key standards for automotive chips by 2025. By 2030, more than 70 standards related to automotive chips will be formulated, and the typical application scenarios and test methods of automotive chips will be basically fully covered, so as to meet the needs of building a safe, open and sustainable automotive chip industry ecology.

2. In 2024, the number of civil aviation passengers transported during the Spring Festival will reach 80 million

The Civil Aviation Administration of China held a regular press conference, and the relevant person in charge introduced that the 2024 Spring Festival will start on January 26 and end on March 5, a total of 40 days. It is predicted that the number of civil aviation passengers during the Spring Festival transportation period will reach 80 million, with a daily average of 2 million passengers, which is expected to hit a record high.

3. Haikou relaxes the property market sales restriction policy: the sales restriction period is changed from "five years" to "two years"

Recently, the Haikou Municipal Bureau of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued a notice on optimizing the real estate policy to optimize the policy of restricting the transfer of commercial housing, that is, the commercial housing purchased by resident families can be transferred after the purchase contract has been filed for 2 years and the real estate ownership certificate has been obtained. It is reported that the previous "sales restriction" policy in Haikou's property market was that the purchase contract could only be sold after 5 years of filing.

4. In 2023, the raw coal output of 17 enterprises will exceed 50 million tons

According to preliminary statistics from the Statistics and Information Department of the China Coal Industry Association, in 2023, there will be 17 enterprise groups with a raw coal output of more than 50 million tons in the country. The total raw coal output of the 17 enterprises was about 2.79 billion tons, an increase of about 70 million tons or 2.6% compared with 2022.

5. The express delivery development index in December was 400.7, an increase of 22.5% year-on-year

According to the State Post Bureau, it is estimated that China's express delivery development index in December 2023 will be 400.7, an increase of 22.5% year-on-year. Among them, the development scale index, service quality index, development capacity index and development trend index were 495.5, 561.9, 253.5 and 74.4 respectively, an increase of 27.1%, 26.1%, 8.9% and 11.9% year-on-year, respectively. In December, the express delivery market continued to maintain a medium-to-high-speed development trend, and the express delivery market came to a successful conclusion in 2023.

Edit | Huarui Information New Media Team

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