BOCOM International Securities: Outlook for 2024 (Part I): Changes and Opportunities

Liquidity and technology changes are coming our way, and major structural changes in asset allocation will follow, and we can no longer look at all types of assets through the lens of the past. In the era of great divergence, we need to create a new macro hedging strategy, combined with a bottom-up layout. This report is the first part of the outlook, focusing on the top-down, and the second part of our outlook focuses on the bottom-up combing of individual stocks.

Changes in liquidity: In the short term, although there will be no immediate rate cuts in 2024, there will be no more rate hikes, and the marginal inflection point has arrived. In the medium term, under the new macro situation, the future interest rate pivot will move systematically upward, and it is necessary to adapt to the new normal of liquidity.

Technological changes: The emergence of AI technology represented by ChatGPT means that all walks of life around the world are gradually entering a new era of technology.

Change in Operational Strategy (New Approach): Changes in assets. Driven by changes in liquidity and technology, changes in assets are about to emerge.

Global economy: Likely to slow down

• China's economy is expected to recover smoothly in 2024.
• The U.S. economy will continue to show some resilience.
• In the Eurozone, the outlook is more mixed.
• For other emerging markets, challenges remain in 2024.

Source: BOCOM International Securities

Full report: 76 pages

The report reads in part: