In the aftermath of the terrorist attacks on Iran, despite repeated reiterations of revenge, Iranian speakers still demanded that all troops remain calm and remain unmoved.
Why is this so? It is precisely at a time when the whole people are filled with righteous indignation and hatred is rising, and if Iran sends a strong force and cleans up the United States and Israel, won't it be more able to increase national cohesion?
In fact, things are far from so simple, the fight is cool for a while, the hospitalization that should be hospitalized after the fight, and the loss of money that should lose money, there will be no winner. Iran is also well aware of this truth, not to mention that Iran can win the war against the United States and Israel? Therefore, when the "Islamic State" came out to claim this matter, it gave Iran a step down.
The Islamic State dominated the matter, and basically did not run
Even after the Islamic State claimed this, many people still pointed the finger at the United States and Israel, and said a lot of truths, which can be summed up in one sentence: Facts aside, doesn't the United States and Israel have no responsibility?
After all, opposing the United States and Israel is the best way to enhance Iran's national cohesion, and they will certainly spare no effort to use any national hatred to enhance national cohesion and strengthen their own rule.
So is the United States and Israel really involved in this? Personally, I don't think so.
- First, it is no secret that Lao Mei decided to kill Soleimani back then. If this can be done, why bother to do things with a bunch of civilians? Wouldn't it be enough to directly attack Iran's top leaders? At present, many Iranian generals are still on the front line in Syria.
- Second, Soleimani is the core general of the encirclement and suppression of the Islamic State, and it can be said that he has a deep blood feud with the Islamic State. The incident took place on the fourth anniversary of Soleimani's death and took place near Soleimani's grave. They were undoubtedly all for Soleimani. Relatively speaking, the United States and Israel did not have such a big feud with Soleimani.
- Third, Soleimani was originally killed by the United States, so is it illogical for them to pick this date and place to make such a show? Is it really necessary to make more than 80 million Iranians unanimously hate the United States or Israel? There is no need for this, and this is not what the United States and Israel want to see.
- Fourth, what are you doing that is not cost-effective? Killing a big man will make Iran's top brass tremble, but it will not be worth it at all to deal with civilians for no reason? To plan this matter, it will cost a lot of manpower and material resources, and if you are not careful, you will leak secrets, and the risks and costs will be too high, and you will not be able to do it at all unless you want revenge.
It can be seen that this is the probability of the Islamic State's revenge, and 99% is not a big problem. As for the fact that there are still people who hold on to the United States, the main reason is that they can't let go of the obsession in their hearts, after all, they have to find a reason to hate every day, and they finally find a reason, but they hate the wrong object, and they have no face.
Iran is reluctant to confront the United States and Israel head-on, and how comfortable it is to fight a proxy war
Western countries like to fight proxy wars, that is, they don't do their own work, and let their younger brothers do the dirty work. In this way, even if he is defeated, he will not be able to hurt his seven inches.
Over time, this trick has been learned by countries with a little bit of strength. If your own strength is strong, you are not willing to take risks in person, how comfortable is it to find an agent to play?
Iran has learned this trick.
- In Yemen, Iran supports the Houthis. The Houthis, who are now making trouble in the Red Sea, are Iran's proxies in Yemen. Even if the United States and Israel make trouble with the Houthis, they will not be able to find Iran, which is a tacit matter.
- In Lebanon, Iran supports Allah in Lebanon. This group has been doing things along the Lebanese-Israeli border for a long time, and its combat effectiveness is not weak, which has caused Israel to be anxious.
- In Gaza, many people believe that the boss behind Hamas is also Iran. Because during the war, a spokesman for Hamas made this clear. Moreover, the big leader of Hamas is in Qatar, and the big brother behind Qatar is Iran.
In addition, Iraq and Syria have the power of Iran's support. It can be seen that Iran has formed its own system for fighting proxy wars. If it's not a last resort, just let the agent take action, so why bother to end up yourself?
Iran has a lot of land and resources, and as long as they pay a little money, the agents will definitely be willing to act as their little brothers. After all, most of these agents are poor. For example, the Houthis, commonly known as the slipper army, are fighting in slippers.
Iranian speakers do not want to be used as agents
Now in the period of the Russian-Ukrainian war, due to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the world's attention has been focused on the Middle East, making the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield once ignored. As a result, Russia is facing much less pressure.
There is a lot of internal debate in the West over whether to support Israel, and it is clear that a Palestinian-Israeli conflict can successfully divide the Western world. If the scale of this conflict is expanded, won't Russia have no pressure on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield?
The best way to do this is for Iran to go to war. Iran has a pivotal position in the Middle East, and as long as Iran personally ends, the Middle East will inevitably be in chaos. At that time, the Western world will not have time to care about Ukraine at all, and Russia will abuse Ukraine as much as it wants.
Therefore, the fate of Iran is very important for Russia.
If Russia had taken this into account, it might have done something to force Iran out. It is no wonder that some people think that Russia is behind the Islamic State, after all, this matter has helped Russia too much.
At the critical moment, the Iranian authorities held back, mainly because they were too familiar with this set. Although it has good relations with Russia, why should you act as your agent if you want money, people, and territory? It is not so necessary! In the event of a fight, can Russia provide Iran with any benefits? If not, why should Iran wade into troubled waters?
The Iranian authorities are worried about a repetition of the episodes of Saddam Hussein and Gaddafi
Since 1979, Iran has transformed from a modern and open country to a relatively conservative one. You can do your own research to find out what Iranians were dressed in before and after 1979.
Moreover, Lao Ha, who is currently in power, has not stepped down from the position of supreme leader since he succeeded to the throne in 1989. It's been about 35 years.
This is obviously not in line with the concept of Western countries? It is simply commonplace for Western countries to change people. Therefore, the two concepts are different, and as for the advantages and disadvantages, everyone can judge by themselves.
It is true that Iranian people rarely show up and basically do not go abroad. In addition to strengthening the mystery, that is, the fear of accidents, after all, the United States and Israel have too strong ability to kill at fixed points. Even if the United States and Israel dare not do this, they must ensure that everything is safe.
I am usually so careful, but now at this critical moment, I am naturally walking on thin ice. After all, such a good person has unlimited wealth and tens of millions of people in Iran, and his life is precious.
The examples of Saddam Hussein and Gaddafi are there, if they really tear their faces with the United States and Israel and go head-to-head. It is hard to imagine whether oneself or one's children and grandchildren will fall to this point in the future. Rather than being rash, it is better to endure it.
It's all business, so why tear your face completely
To tell the truth, the accuracy of the U.S.-Israel beheading operation is too high, and anyone who sees it is afraid. Let's talk about Soleimani, the level of fixed click killing has reached the extreme, and it is simply chilling.
Just ask you, if you are the Iranian authorities, can you not take this into account?
International relations are generally like this, as long as you don't completely tear your face and leave everyone without stepping down, then there is still room for maneuver. After all, everyone has to give an explanation to their countrymen.
Now Iran can make full use of this principle, on the one hand, it will resolutely propagate anti-US and anti-Israel propaganda at home, and on the other hand, it will try not to clash head-on with the United States and Israel in the international community, and only let the proxy brother go to the United States and Israel.
No matter how the proxies fight, as long as Iran does not end up personally, then it has nothing to do with Iran, this is the metaphysics in international relations. Because the United States and Israel are not very willing to tear their faces directly with Iran, after all, it is not beneficial!