Japan's turn, starting to confuse?

According to the view of Western economics, when the "invisible hand" of the market economy fails, it is time for the "visible hand" to come to the forefront.

Since the beginning of this year, the topic of when Japan will truly end negative interest rates has been attracting attention in the global financial market.

However, for a cautious Bank of Japan, after all, it has been mired in long-term quantitative easing, so it has been struggling to withdraw from YCC.

On December 19, at the last monetary policy meeting of the year, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) chose to "make a big dove" and announced that the yield curve control (YCC policy) and negative interest rate policy would remain unchanged.

On the same day, Bank President Kazuo Ueda announced that he would maintain interest rates at -0.1% while sticking to his yield curve control policy and set the upper limit of the 10-year JGB yield at 1% as a reference.

As soon as this remark came out, the yen was the first to fall, and it fell to around 143 yen per dollar, while the Nikkei Stock Average soared to around 32,200 yen.

In addition to the brunt of the stimulus to their own currencies, the feedback from global financial markets has also been choppy.

Looking back on the past year, the Bank of Japan's words and actions have a very obvious implication of "turning hawkish".

Since December last year, with various economic indicators improving, Japan has launched a total of three disguised interest rate hikes.

And not long ago, Kazuo Ueda threatened that dealing with monetary policy would become "more challenging".

The yen's exchange rate, which was at its highest level in nearly four months since August this year, also strengthened global market expectations for the Bank of Japan's pivot

But now, Ueda's "dovish" speech has obviously dashed many people's expectations.

But in fact, the decision of the Bank of Japan was both unexpected and expected.

1

Once bitten by a snake, he was afraid of the well rope for ten years.

Countries that have truly experienced a full economic cycle will still be in awe in the face of change.

In fact, at the moment, the Bank of Japan does not want to return to monetary normalization as soon as possible, but the long deflationary slump after the bursting of the bubble really scared Japan.

After all, the great change from prosperity to recession was quickly completed in Japan.

The period of Japan's most rapid economic development was 1955~1972, which was the era in Japanese history when you could really get rich through hard work, and most of the rich Japanese completed their primitive capital accumulation at that time.

By the 70s, Japan had become the world's second-largest economic power after the United States.

However, the goods that Japan sold to the United States were of high quality and low price, and the United States earned a trade surplus every day, which made the United States too uncomfortable, and the trade friction between Japan and the United States intensified.

In 1985, the United States summoned the finance ministers and central bank governors of the United States, Japan, Britain, France, and Germany to sign the "Plaza Accord," a key agreement that blew up this huge asset bubble, at the Plaza Hotel in New York.

Since then, the yen has appreciated sharply, attracting hot money from all over the world to Japan.

At this time, as long as you buy the yen, and then sit back and wait for the appreciation, you will make money.

In order to promote the transfer of exports to domestic sales and stimulate the consumption power of the private sector, the Japanese government has cut interest rates five times in two years, and banknotes have poured from banks to the private sector like water.

In this way, this wave of cash "big release" has been poured into various economic fields, among which the property market is the most obvious.

How exaggerated?

In 1986~1989, housing prices in Japan not only rose, but skyrocketed!

It is said that the land price in Tokyo at that time was directly called the Guinness Book of Records, and Ginza was once speculated to 700,000 US dollars per square meter, and the housing prices in Japan's major cities even increased by more than 200% in three years!

As a result, in the entire Japanese society at that time, there was an impetuous atmosphere of "not being able to speculate is stupid", and "flipping houses" was regarded by the Japanese as a shortcut to get rich overnight and cross classes.

But sometimes, blindly increasing leverage may end up in a miserable situation that is difficult to protect.

At that time, the Japanese were bold enough to borrow money when they had no money. In addition to their parents, relatives and friends, banks, and even loan sharks, as long as they think they can get their hands on the "ammunition", they are all thrown into the stock market and the real estate market.

It was this kind of play that quickly blew up Japan's huge "economic bubble".

However, everything has cycles, and the same is true of a country's economic activities.

No one expected that this golden dream prepared with prosperity would wake up like this.

In the early 90s of last century, Japan's two major economic engines of exports and real estate both went out, and the Japanese authorities overestimated the repair ability of the economy and chose to take the initiative to raise interest rates to puncture the bubble, which eventually caused a major economic collapse.

At the highest point, if you suddenly slam on the brakes, Japan's economy will inevitably be in turmoil.

What happened after that, which is also familiar to us, was that a large number of enterprises, financial institutions and even banks collapsed, and both land prices and housing prices suffered a historic "Waterloo".

It is said that in just 2 years, more than 2,300 real estate companies in Japan went bankrupt, and many developer owners saw that there was no hope of turning over, and even chose to jump off the building to escape debts.

And for ordinary Japanese people, the collapse of asset prices is not the most terrifying, because the decline in income is the last straw that crushes ordinary Japanese.

You must know that at that time, there were still many Japanese who had frantically leveraged to buy houses in the past few years and were burdened with huge mortgages, and they were facing a bad situation of salary cuts and even unemployment.

As a result, with the continuous loss of spending power, an era of deflation filled with "low desire" has arrived.

How to shorten the duration of recession and depression is a profound and complex science.

From the prosperity of singing and dancing to the bitter depression of Japan

With his own Great Recession, he became a teacher of political economy all over the world.

But not broken, not standing, from

The endogenous power of accumulation has promoted the slow recovery, and now it has ushered in the second national fortune with its strength.

Japan

It also gives us a sample of the cycle to a certain extent.

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2

Illness comes like a mountain, and illness goes like a thread.

This draw is thirty years.

Since the bursting of the bubble, Japan, with its "three non-increases" in housing prices, prices, and wages, has gradually become the target of public ridicule.

In the face of the abrupt economic turn in the 90s of the 20th century, and the long cold winter that followed, the Japanese government certainly could not sit idly by.

As a matter of fact, the Japanese government's self-help ideas in the past 30 years are very clear: stimulate consumption, expand production, further increase investment, enhance national confidence, and realize the shift from balance sheet reduction to balance sheet expansion, so as to revitalize the entire economy.

Then the most direct way is to let those who have money spend money, and those who don't have money borrow money to spend.

But a new problem has arisen. What if people don't want to spend money and don't want to borrow if they don't have money?

Then let the money depreciate, lower the interest rate on borrowing, and make the interest rate on deposits zero.

As a result, this is one of Japan's most representative financial policies.

However, when it really "took effect" can be traced back to the end of 2012.

At that time, after Abe became Japan's prime minister again, he launched the so-called "three arrows" policy combination.

One of the most well-known ones, and what has continued the Bank of Japan to this day, is Abe's "first arrow" - loose monetary policy.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) during the Abe era introduced negative interest rates for the first time in the country

, that is, the interest rate of -0.1% for the new excess reserves of financial institutions, which is also the second economy to implement negative interest rates after Denmark, Sweden, Switzerland and the eurozone.

In addition, the Bank of Japan has not only extended the holding period of government bonds from less than three years to seven years on average, but also greatly enriched the types of items purchased, expanding from long-term government bonds to financial products such as ETFs and J-REITs.

With the "three arrows" in unison, the depreciation of the yen is used to support exports externally and increase the public's expectations for future price increases internally, which is also considered to be a significant manifestation of the effectiveness of Abenomics.

At some point in history, although the well-known "Abenomics" did not bring about a strong recovery for the Japanese economy, it can be said that it was saved from a long-term downturn.

After all, the Japanese economy, which has been sluggish, has finally "picked up" a little, and has successfully broken out of its cocoon from long-term stagnation.

Since then, quantitative easing, which seems to have injected the blood of Japan's economic development, has been continued.

3

For Japan, this near-extreme monetary policy may be the best choice.

But now, lifting negative interest rates has become an important decision that the Bank of Japan has been thinking about for a long time.

Since the end of last year, Japan's inflation data has exceeded expectations for 20 consecutive months. It is worth mentioning that the core CPI, which the Bank of Japan is most concerned about, is also improving.

November

The latest release of 2.5% was less than the 2.9% increase in October and the first narrowing of the increase in two months.

Source:

NHK

It stands to reason that interest rate hikes are inevitable in the current economic environment, but the Bank of Japan remains cautious.

After all, the Bank of Japan, which has witnessed the storms and waves, will inevitably "learn from history" before making major financial decisions.

Because the Bank of Japan is notoriously unlucky, every time it raises interest rates, it will mean a more serious crisis brewing.

The first time was in 2000, when the U.S. Internet bubble was punctured, causing the Nasdaq index to fall for two consecutive years, and $5 trillion in wealth directly evaporated;

The second was the 2006 interest rate hike that triggered the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and spread to the world.

So many people can't help but ask, if the Bank of Japan chooses to raise interest rates now, will it repeat the mistakes of 2000 and 2006 this time?

However, although there are such "lessons from the past", in fact, the economic background is different at different stages.

Looking back at the environment of these two interest rate hikes in the past, when the Bank of Japan finally began to tighten policy,

Almost all of them are in cycles

Later, and at this time other places are already close to serious problems. 

However, this time is clearly different.

First of all, this time the Bank of Japan saw that the domestic economy was improving and took the initiative to raise interest rates, not the situation where the market did not buy it, as it did last time.

Secondly, Japan's CPI inflation this year has remained above 2% despite the fall in energy prices, which is enough to show that the main reason for this round of inflation in Japan is not only "imported inflation", but also the support of the vitality of the Japanese economy itself.

The most convincing evidence of this is that the Bank of Japan stated in the minutes of its December meeting that "the economy is slowly recovering, and the wage-inflation spiral is slowly forming, and inflation will then move above 2%." ”

Source: Minutes of the Bank of Japan's December meeting

It can be seen that the Bank of Japan also believes that wages are rising, inflation is up to the mark, and interest rates should be raised.

In fact, the result of lifting negative interest rates is inevitable, but the Bank of Japan is more important to the stability and sustainability of the positive cycle of wage increases and inflation.

So, when Japan will completely lift negative interest rates, there may be only one piece of the puzzle left – wages will continue to rise in 2024.

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4

In fact, since the beginning of this year, Japan has started an unprecedented wave of salary increases, breaking many people's prejudice against it that "wages have not risen for 30 years" in one fell swoop.

In the spring of 2023, major Japanese companies raised the average salary of their employees by 3.91%, the highest increase in nearly 30 years.

As for next year's crucial spring wage negotiations, Japan will also usher in the third consecutive year of wage increases.

Among them, there are many large enterprises that have clearly released a signal of salary increase next year.

For example, Suntory Holdings, a major beverage manufacturer, plans to offer employees an average monthly salary increase of 7% for the second consecutive year in 2024;

Meiji Yasuda Life Insurance Company plans to increase the average annual salary of about 10,000 employees by 7% from April next year;

Electronics retailer Bic Camera also plans to increase the annual salary of its 4,600 full-time employees by up to 16 percent.

......

In this regard, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida also made it clear that "before next year's spring labor talks, I will take the lead in pushing for wage increases that will exceed this year."

I have to say that in the past two years, the Japanese have simply caught the high-speed train of salary increases.

Because of this, there are more and more voices in the market predicting the lifting of the negative interest rate policy by the spring of 2024.

According to the results of the Nikkei QUICK monthly survey released on December 18, 36% of respondents believe that the lifting time will be in January~March 2024, and 43% in April~June, with a total of 80% predicting that negative interest rates will be lifted by the first half of 2024.

It can be said that the market has now formed a basic consensus on the Bank of Japan's return to monetary normalization next year.

As long as Japan exits negative interest rates and starts raising interest rates, the yen will inevitably open an appreciation channel next year.

So from the perspective of investment, look at the general trend of accurate and qualitative, and keep up with the trend of the times in time.

So as not to miss every opportunity to achieve a first-class leap.

Therefore, it is important to use the yen exchange rate and the investment dividends brought by Japan's national fortunes to "lock" and "leverage" the asset wealth of yourself and your family in advance.

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#10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6) 1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root, body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body{--appmsgExtra-BG: #F7F7F7}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: 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