In the 2023 global car company sales ranking, BYD is ninth and Toyota is first
2023 is quite a crazy year for domestic brands. In the context of the coexistence of opportunities and challenges, independent brands have completed the further strangulation of joint venture brands through the new energy track, and some of the independent brands that went overseas earlier have also benefited a lot from the changing international situation and the wave of electrification change, and the export volume of automobiles has reached a new high. Thanks to the collective efforts of independent brands, China's annual automobile exports in 2023 will also surpass Japan, ranking first in the world for the first time.
The joint venture that can't be lifted away, the old capital that can't be eaten
As far as individual feelings are concerned, the voice and visibility of joint venture brands have indeed been weakening in the past two years, and many people will prefer their own brands rather than joint venture brands when buying new cars, and some joint venture brands have even been rumored to withdraw from the Chinese market from time to time.
Judging from the TOP10 global car company sales ranking in 2023 released by GlobalData, independent brands still have a long way to go from rising.
▲2023 Top 10 Global Car Companies in Sales (Translation: Pictorial Auto)
Yes, you read that right, BYD, which has been dry from the Qin 998 production line to smoke and rushed to 3 million units a year, can only rank 9th in the world, only slightly ahead of the Suzuki Group - Nani? Suzuki Group is still alive? Not only is it alive, but it almost gave BYD to the bottom of the list.
Why is BYD so fierce that it can only rank ninth in the world? To put it simply, the joint venture car companies are too thick, and they can sell their cars lying down without fighting new energy or new technologies. For large multinational automakers such as Toyota, Honda, Volkswagen, and Ford, the Chinese market is only one part of it. It is no exaggeration to say that even if these brands are immediately squeezed out of the Chinese market, they do not need to worry too much, because there is still a very large overseas market base for them to eat for many years.
▲BYD's annual sales will exceed 3 million units in 2023 (Source: BYD Auto)
丰田、STELLANTIS和福特
Taking Toyota Group as an example, Toyota Group's total global sales in 2023 are expected to be 10.65 million units, and how much does the Chinese market share? According to the sales of FAW Toyota and GAC Toyota in December, Toyota's total sales in the Chinese market in 2023 will be about 1.87 million units, accounting for about 15%.
Toyota's global sales in 2023 will still be 8.78 million units, which is basically the same as the global sales of the Volkswagen Group, and even has the opportunity to sit firmly on the top spot in global sales for the fourth consecutive year, which is Toyota.
Let's take another example, the Stellantis Group, also known as STELLANTIS, whose brands include Alfa Romeo, Chrysler, Citroen, Dodge, Peugeot, DS, Fiat, JEEP, Lancia, Maserati, Opel, etc., pure electric and plug-in hybrid are a mess, and it looks like they are going to be carried away.
Then let's take a look at its full-year sales - an estimated 6.4 million units, which is more than double BYD Auto's full-year sales in 2023.
▲Ford's global sales trend chart for fiscal 2015-2022 fiscal year
Another example is Ford, which is about to be forgotten by Chinese consumers, has no voice in the domestic market, Forrest and Focus have been discontinued, EVOS and electric horse sales are miserable, and Ruiji and Ruijie have hit the streets after the generation, and it is only a matter of time before they are carried away. In 2023, Ford also announced its withdrawal from the Russian market. In this way, Ford will still have close to 4 million global sales in 2023, still far ahead of BYD Auto.
What does Ford rely on? Presumably, the F-series pickup truck sales have dominated the U.S. market for 47 consecutive years, sold 700,000 pickup trucks in one year, and the Mustang Mach-E, which singled out Tesla's Model 3 overseas.
Of course, in terms of overall sales trends, Ford's global sales trend has been declining in the past eight years, and even the U.S. market, which is home base, has seen weak growth, with Ford's sales growth in the U.S. market in 2023 being only 7.1%, less than half of General Motors' growth in the same period.
According to the current sales growth trend of Ford, if BYD Auto can achieve the expected sales of 4 million units in China in 2024, then BYD is very likely to surpass Ford and Honda in global sales in 2024 and jump to the seventh place in the world.
Where is the road for independent brands?
Independent brands rely on new energy to gain momentum, and in the future, they should unswervingly focus on the track of new energy to achieve a double breakthrough in global sales and brand influence.
According to the comprehensive estimate of the China Passenger Car Association, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicle manufacturers in December 2023 will be 1.13 million units, a year-on-year increase of about 50%, and the estimated wholesale sales in 2023 will be about 8.88 million units, a year-on-year increase of 38%. In terms of manufacturers, BYD, SAIC-GM-Wuling, Geely Automobile, Changan Automobile, Li Automobile, GAC Aion, SAIC Passenger Vehicle, Celis, Great Wall Motor and Chery Automobile have good sales performance, and the sales prospects of new energy products of the above car companies in 2024 are also relatively clear, and in the context of the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of the new energy market, the independent brand new energy can be said to be promising in 2024.
▲Ranking of new energy wholesale sales in the Chinese market in December 2023 (Source: Passenger Association)
But we must also see that the total amount of the domestic new energy market is limited, before the power battery and automatic driving have no revolutionary breakthrough, independent new energy will almost enter the plateau period for two or three years, the growth rate is inevitable, and it is a long-term solution to go abroad to roll.
At present, new energy and intelligent assisted driving are in the ascendant, the international situation is changing, Toyota, Volkswagen and Hyundai as the representative of the Japanese, German and Korean have successively shown signs of slowing down the overall global sales growth, product electrification and intelligent driving progress is also slightly lagging behind, this window period is a good opportunity for independent brand new energy with technical advantages, take the lead in seizing Europe, Central Asia, The right to speak in the mid-to-high-end new energy market in Southeast Asia and the Middle East market is very important, and if Toyota reacts, then the independent brand may have to suffer some losses in terms of brand recognition.
And for the new energy is not very dominant in the independent brand, do not need to be too pessimistic, the overseas fuel vehicle market is still very huge, the domestic volume does not move to try to go out, the Great Wall, Chery and Geely have initially broken out of the world, especially in high-latitude areas like Russia, fuel vehicles are still the main sales force, independent brand fuel vehicles rely on the appearance and configuration of these two advantages can basically go sideways, at least the Korean system is not a problem.