In 2024, as the bell rings for the New Year, South Asia may usher in a military transformation with far-reaching consequences. An important military agreement between Pakistan and China is quietly brewing.
According to Pakistani media reports on January 2, General Babar, Chief of Staff of the Pakistan Air Force, inspected the Air Force Operating Base at the beginning of the new year and made a profound speech. He not only mentioned the latest situation in the arsenal of the Pakistan Air Force, but also publicly announced a shocking news: Pakistan is purchasing Chinese J-31 stealth fighters, "in the near future, the J-31 will shine on the debut and become a new star of the Pakistan Air Force". This statement undoubtedly announced to the world Pakistan's determination to introduce advanced Chinese fighter jets.
The announcement makes Pakistan the first country scheduled to introduce Chinese J-31 (FC-31) fighter jets and will join the "fifth-generation stealth fighter club". The news swept across South Asia like a wave, even affecting the global geopolitical balance. It is no exaggeration to say that this has left India feeling more anxious and stressful than ever.
The J-31 is a twin-engine stealth fighter with flexibility and stealth. Its DSI air intake and F-35C-like design concept led to a new direction in modern air combat. Equipped with two internal weapons bays and multiple hardpoints, the fighter can carry a wide range of medium and long-range missiles to meet diverse combat needs. Compared to the larger J-20, the J-31 is smaller but more agile. In addition, the FC-31 export model frequently appeared at international air shows, attracting the attention of many overseas customers.
It is worth noting that if China and Pakistan finally reach an agreement, the J-31 will also become one of the few fighters that China will start exporting before entering service. Pakistan has been eager to introduce fifth-generation stealth fighters for years, having considered options such as Turkey's KAAN fighter jets and China's J-20 or J-31.
For various reasons, the KAAN project has been slow to move forward, and the first flight has been repeatedly postponed, which makes Pakistan not dare to easily pin all its hopes on Turkey. China's stealth fighters, with their good cost performance and quality, have naturally become Pakistan's first choice in the context of deep military cooperation between China and Pakistan. Despite previous disagreements over the selection of the J-20, with the Pakistan Air Force leaning towards the more powerful J-20 and China aggressively promoting the J-31, it is clear that this impasse has been broken and a powerful fleet of 30-40 J-31s is gradually becoming a reality.
This shift has made India nervous, realizing that if Pakistan's air force continues to expand in size and technology, it could pose a clear suppressive advantage over India's air force over the next 10-15 years. Pakistan is expected to have 50 J-31s and a large number of other types of warplanes, while India is feeling increasing pressure from the intricacies of advanced warplanes and complex logistical support systems.
India has long feared that it might need to deal with the pressure of a two-front war between China and Pakistan at the same time. With the number of modernized fighter jets expected to exceed 2,200 in the Chinese and Pakistani air forces, while the number of Indian fighters is far behind, less than 600, its single-line combat objectives are particularly vulnerable and weak.
Under such circumstances, the Indian media suggested that the domestic air force must accelerate the expansion of its forces, introduce more Rafale fighters, increase the delivery speed of "Tejal" fighters, and form at least 42 fighter squadrons. From a strategic point of view, new tactical methods should also be considered, such as preemptive air strikes to weaken the combat capabilities of the front-line airfields in China and Pakistan. It remains to be seen whether these measures will be effective enough and whether they will alleviate the current emergency.
This major military purchase by the Pakistan Air Force has brought a leap forward in the strike capabilities of its air force at the technical level, and at the same time dropped a bombshell on the geopolitical front. Although the Indian Air Force currently has powerful fighters such as the Su-30MKI, Mirage 2000, Rafale, etc., if Pakistan succeeds in equipping the J-31, the Indian Air Force's advantage in a potential confrontation will no longer exist. In the face of this emerging arms race, it is foreseeable that the security landscape in South Asia and even the world will be reshuffled in the future, and its ultimate direction will be the focus of our common attention and thinking.
In fact, Pakistan's military cooperation with China has always been very close. Since the 1962 Sino-Indian border war, China and Pakistan have had a mutually supportive strategic alliance. The alliance builds on the Xinjiang Economic Corridor initiative, which encourages China to strengthen economic and trade ties with Pakistan and other Central Asian countries in order to accelerate China's economic development and military expansion in the region. Pakistan's military cooperation with China is seen as one of the important factors challenging India's regional stability and undermining the security balance in South Asia.
The Indian Air Force and the Indian Government will also need to take into account the influence of other countries in the region adjacent to China, particularly Bangladesh and Nepal. India has a long-standing and complex border with Bangladesh, and Nepal is constantly getting closer to China, with a modern army of its own. India must act wisely and cautiously to avoid massive shocks and limitations to its geopolitical interests and sphere of influence.
Finally, it should be pointed out that while China and Pakistan are jointly developing the J-31, India is also actively developing its own fifth-generation stealth fighter, and claims that it is actively engaged in research and development. However, as China and Pakistan modernize their military technology and enhance their strike capabilities, the modernization of the Indian Air Force appears to be facing greater challenges. Therefore, India must act more aggressively to improve the situational awareness and confrontation capabilities of its air force and meet new geopolitical and security challenges.