(Report Producer/Analyst: Kaiyuan Securities Li Yiran)
1. The tin supply and demand pattern continues to tighten, and the industry leader is taking advantage of the wind
The tin industry leader has a long history.
In 1883, the company's predecessor, the old factory China Merchants Bureau, was established.
In 1998, the company was restructured and established in Yunnan and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2000.
In 2004, the company acquired the net operating assets and mining rights of Laochang Mining and Kafang Mining, in 2006, the company completed the acquisition of Chenzhou Mining and Metallurgy, and continued to increase upstream resources, and in 2012, the company further acquired the mining rights and related mining assets of Kafang.
In 2015, the company acquired Hualian Zinc Indium (the main asset is Dulong tin mine) through major asset restructuring, and the company's resource self-sufficiency rate increased rapidly.
The actual controller of the company is the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of Yunnan Province, and the integrated layout of mining, metallurgy and deep processing.
As of 2023Q3, the actual controller of the company is Yunnan State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, the controlling shareholder is Yunnan Tin Industry Group, with a shareholding ratio of 32.97%, and the controlling shareholder and its concerted actors hold a total of 43.78% of the shares.
The company's main business is the exploration, mining, beneficiation and smelting of tin, zinc, copper, indium and other metal ores. The company's main products are tin ingots, copper cathodes, zinc ingots, die-cast zinc alloys, indium ingots, tin and tin chemical products.
Revenue has risen steadily, and net profit has fluctuated cyclically.
In 2016~2021, the company's revenue grew steadily, and the net profit was significantly affected by the cyclical fluctuations of commodity prices.
In the first three quarters of 2023, the company achieved revenue of 33.66 billion yuan, down 20.2% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.095 billion yuan, down 18.6% year-on-year, mainly negatively affected by the decline in tin and zinc metal prices and tin smelting expenses.
The company's trading business contributed the main revenue, and the tin-related business contributed the company's main profit.
In terms of revenue, in the first half of 2023, the company's trading business accounted for a large proportion (39.8%), tin-related business (32.3%), lead, copper and other products (21.7%), and zinc products (5.6%).
In terms of gross profit, in the first half of 2023, tin-related businesses contributed 41.9% of gross profit, zinc products contributed 25.1% of gross profit, and lead, copper and other products contributed 27.8% of gross profit.
The company's profitability is cyclical, and tin ingots and tin products are stable and maintain a high level of operation.
The company's overall profitability is cyclical and obvious, tin prices will rise sharply in 2021, the company's gross profit margin and net profit margin will rise rapidly, and in 2023, with the decline in tin commodity prices, the company's gross profit margin will fall, but the company's net profit margin will rise through good cost reduction and efficiency increase, and the company's gross profit margin and net profit margin in the first three quarters of 2023 will be 8.3% and 3.5% respectively.
In terms of product gross profit margin, affected by the decline in product prices and processing fees, the gross profit margin of tin ingot products fell to 7.7% in the first half of 2023, and the gross profit margin of zinc ingot products fell to 33.8%.
The company's various expenses have decreased steadily, and the cost reduction and efficiency increase have been significant.
The sales expense ratio has remained low all year round, and the financial and administrative expense ratio has been steadily declining in recent years, reducing costs and increasing efficiency significantly, providing space for subsequent profit release. In the first three quarters of 2023, the company's net profit margin increased instead of declining gross profit margin, highlighting the company's ability to reduce costs and increase efficiency. The company's asset-liability ratio has continued to decline in recent years, and the asset-liability ratio was 50.5% at the end of the third quarter of 2023, and it still has a large financing space in the future.
Strip processing and focus on the main business.
In April 2023, in order to further focus on the main business of mining and metallurgy and further focus on the upstream advantages, the company and Yunnan Tin Holding Company, the parent company of the controlling shareholder, jointly increased the capital of Yunnan Tin Tin Co., Ltd., after the capital increase, the tin company was renamed Yunnan Tin New Materials Co., Ltd., and the shareholding ratio of Tin Industry Co., Ltd. in the new material company decreased to 49%, and the subsequent deep processing sector was no longer incorporated into the company's statements.
From the perspective of subsidiaries, Hualian Indium Zinc is a subsidiary that contributes the company's main profits.
From the perspective of revenue, Yunnan tin tin and Wenshan smelting account for a large proportion of the company's revenue, but from the profit side, Hualian indium zinc contributes the main net profit to the company, and Hualian indium zinc (Dulong tin mine) is mainly responsible for mining at the ore end. Most of the other subsidiaries are mainly engaged in smelting and supply chain business, and the overall profitability is relatively stable.
The company's own mines are mainly Datun tin mine, Laochang mining area, Kafang mining area and Hualian zinc indium. Datun tin mine and Dulong mining area are the company's current main mines. The annual raw ore production capacity of Datun tin mine is more than 2 million tons, the annual processing capacity of ore processing is more than 3 million tons, the annual mining capacity of Hualian zinc indium is 3.6 million tons, and the old factory mining area and Kafang mining area supply the company's self-sufficient raw ore remaining production capacity.
The company's resources are mainly concentrated in the old mining areas of Honghe Prefecture and the Dulong mining area of Wenshan Prefecture, which belong to the mining concentration area in southeast Yunnan. The old tin mine and Dulong tin mine are world-class tin polymetallic deposits. One of the old tin mines is one of the super-large tin deposits in the mainland, which is mainly composed of Marag ore field, pine foot ore field, Gao Song ore field, old factory ore field and Kafang ore field.
The company's tin metal resource reserves in 2022 will reach 667,000 tons, and the company's tin resource reserves account for 14.5% of the world's total, based on the USGS global tin metal resource reserves of 4.6 million tons in 2022. With the gradual exploitation of resources, the company's resource reserves have declined slightly, but the company continues to invest in prospecting to ensure the annual increase of endogenous resource reserves, providing a solid foundation for the company's subsequent long-term and stable development.
From 2017 to 2022, the company will maintain resources with new metal volume every year, and in the future, in addition to prospecting around existing resources, the company will also further integrate surrounding resources to improve the overall metal resource reserves.
The company's production capacity remained stable overall. By the end of 2022, the company has a tin smelting capacity of 80,000 tons/year, tin material production capacity of 41,000 tons/year, tin chemical production capacity of 24,000 tons/year, copper cathode production capacity of 125,000 tons/year, zinc smelting capacity of 100,000 tons/year, die-casting zinc alloy 30,000 tons/year, and indium smelting capacity of 60 tons/year. With the divestment of the tin deep processing segment, the company will further focus on upstream products.
The capacity utilization rate is in the forefront of the industry, and the self-sufficiency rate is improved to ensure the company's production and operation. Considering the self-sufficiency of the company's tin ingots, the company's tin smelting capacity utilization rate reached 92.6%, significantly ahead of the industry. In terms of resource self-sufficiency rate, the company's self-sufficiency rates of tin concentrate, copper concentrate and zinc concentrate in 2022 will be 31%, 19% and 69% respectively, and the company's tin resource self-sufficiency rate is also at the forefront of the industry, providing the company with excellent cost competitiveness.
The company has the only licensed import processing and re-export qualification in the domestic tin industry. With the shortage of resources, the company's resources can still be effectively replenished. The company carries out import processing and re-export business by making full use of the only licensed import processing and re-export policy in the tin industry, expands raw material channels, fully guarantees resource sources and actively improves the company's capacity utilization.
The selling price is in line with the market price, and the market share of tin products is high and stable. The price of the company's tin ingot products is in line with the market price, which better reflects the market situation during the rise in commodity prices, has price elasticity, and the company's tin smelting still accounts for a large proportion, so the cost of tin ingots rises synchronously with the price increase.
In terms of market share, the company has always maintained a high market share in China, which will remain between 40% and 50% from 2016 to 2022, and globally, the company's market share will remain at about 20%, and the market share will be generally stable, providing sufficient guarantee for the company's follow-up product sales.
2. Tin industry: resources continue to be tight, and demand is gradually reversing
2.1. The fluctuation of tin prices in 2016 can be divided into six stages
In the first stage of the upward period (January 2016 to December 2016), tin prices in the Chinese market continued to rise in 2016 under the recovery of major economies around the world and the recovery of demand in the solder and tinplate industries. The price of tin ingots rose from 94,300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 148,000 yuan/ton at the end of the year, an annual increase of 53,800 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 57.0%. In the third quarter, domestic environmental protection inspections led to a large-scale shutdown of tin smelters in Yunnan, which further catalyzed tin prices, and the simultaneous stimulation of supply and demand throughout the year greatly pushed up tin prices.
In the second stage of the plateau period (January 2017 to March 2020), the price of tin ingots fell by 24,300 yuan/ton, which was relatively stable compared with other periods. In 2017, affected by environmental inspections, the demand of downstream tinplate and tin chemical industries was affected, and the supply side continued to be gradually released from the upward trend of tin prices in 2016, and tin prices fell slightly. From 2018 to 2019, affected by Sino-US trade frictions, tin demand declined further, and the supply side took the initiative to reduce production simultaneously. At the beginning of 2020, affected by the new crown epidemic, tin demand declined rapidly, and tin prices fell rapidly.
In the third stage of the rise period (April 2020 to March 2022), the price of tin ingots rose from 137,500 yuan/ton at the beginning of March 2020 to 347,000 yuan/ton at the end of March 2022, an increase of 152.7% during the period. Since the second quarter of 2020, the supply side has been affected by the epidemic to varying degrees, but the domestic epidemic has been well controlled, the downstream demand has gradually recovered, the domestic production environment has been rapid and stable, and the changes in life and work patterns brought about by the epidemic have led to an increase in demand for electronic products and home appliances.
In 2021, tin demand will be relatively full throughout the year, but affected by the epidemic in Myanmar, the import supply of tin concentrate is insufficient, smelters have stopped production, and the supply has declined. At the beginning of 2022, tin prices continued to rise as demand continued to be strong after the holiday, while supply remained constrained.
During the fourth phase of decline (April 2022 to November 2022), tin prices fell from 347,000 yuan/ton in early April 2022 to 165,000 yuan/ton in early November, a decrease of 52.5%. In April 2022, due to the repeated impact of the domestic epidemic, the demand for tin fell rapidly, coupled with the fact that major economies entered the interest rate hike cycle due to anti-inflation, and at the same time, imported tin ingots quickly poured into the market, tin prices stalled.
In the fifth stage of the upward period (November 2022 to January 2023), with the successive shutdown of smelters, the supply of tin concentrate in Myanmar was once again limited under the influence of the epidemic.
During the sixth stage of the shock period (the beginning of 2023 to date), tin prices were mostly disturbed by supply events, mainly due to the corresponding notices issued by the Central Economic Commission of Wa State of Myanmar on April 15 and May 20, 2023, that the mine will stop all exploration, mining, processing and other operations after August 1, 2023, and the operation will finally be stopped on August 1, 2023, which will have a catalytic impact on tin prices at key time nodes.
2.2. Supply side: the reserve-production ratio is low for a long time, and the shortage of resources is difficult to alleviate in the short term
The concentration of global tin production reserves is relatively high. According to the USGS, global tin production in 2022 will be mainly concentrated in China, Indonesia, and Myanmar, with CR3 accounting for more than 60%. In terms of reserves, China, Indonesia and Myanmar together account for nearly 50% of the world's reserves, and the concentration of global tin production and reserves is high.
In terms of sub-regions, the Americas region, South America was the world's main tin producing area in the 20th century, and there were many large-scale tin mines in the region, but due to the over-exploitation and limited resource exploration investment in the past, the tin resource grade in the region continued to decline. Russia also has large tin reserves, but due to the poor environment for Russia's external investment and construction, the number of mines in production in Russia is limited.
Indonesia and Myanmar in Southeast Asia are currently the world's main tin ore supply areas, Indonesian tin ore resources are concentrated in Indonesian Tianma company, in recent years, the company has continuously strengthened resource exploration, tin resources have gradually increased. Myanmar is mainly based on the production of small ore deposits, and the production technology is relatively backward, because the exploration work is not exhaustive, so the statistics of resource reserves are incomplete.
Global tin production has grown only marginally in recent years, with little growth in reserves. Before 2008, the global tin production maintained a steady growth, in 2009 affected by the global financial crisis, the economic downturn dragged down demand, the output fell synchronously, and then with the gradual recovery of the global economy, the global tin output stabilized at about 300,000 tons in recent years. In terms of reserves, global tin reserves have been gradually declining since 2001, and China's tin reserves have been declining since 2000, which has dragged down global tin reserves.
In 2022, the output of the world's top ten refined tin manufacturers will decline slightly, and the output in Southeast Asia will decline severely. According to the ITA, the world's top 10 refined tin producers produced a total of 219,000 tons of refined tin in 2022, a slight decline from 2018-2021. In terms of regions, due to over-exploitation, the ore grade in Southeast Asia has declined, and the output has declined, and the output of Indonesia's Tianma Company and Thailand's Taisaco Company has declined significantly, and the output of Peru's Mingsu Company and Yunnan Chengfeng Nonferrous Metals has risen, which has supported supply.
The reserve-to-mining ratio of major tin producing countries is lower than the global average, and there is uncertainty about the stability of tin supply in the future. According to the USGS, the reserve-to-production ratio of tin resources in China, Myanmar and Indonesia is perennially lower than that of the global reserve-to-production ratio.
In 2022, the global tin reserve-to-production ratio will be 14.8 years, in recent years, the global reserve-to-production ratio will be about 15 years, in 2022, Indonesia's reserve-to-production ratio will only be about 10.8 years, China's reserve-to-production ratio will decline rapidly to 7.6 years, and Myanmar's reserve-to-production ratio will be less than 5 years. There is overexploitation.
In order to ensure the security of resource supply, in addition to increasing the strength of resource exploration, the possibility of restricting tin output has gradually increased, and the uncertainty of tin supply will further increase in the future.
Affected by the expected suspension of production in Myanmar, overseas tin ingot inventories have risen recently. Since October 2022, the domestic tin inventory has been on the rise, and it has continued to go to the warehouse since July 2023, and the current domestic exchange inventory is declining. Overseas has risen to a five-year high. The supply side is affected by the shutdown in Myanmar, the downstream replenishment demand is on the rise, and the short-term pressure on the inventory side is under pressure. Overseas, there is a clear trend of accumulation in May 2023. With the shutdown of production in Myanmar, the reduction in supply and the repair of the demand side, the inventory is expected to gradually deplete.
Myanmar has imposed a ban on mining since August 1, 2023, further amplifying supply-side volatility. According to the International Tin Association's follow-up report on August 2, all mines and concentrators in Wa, regardless of size, have ceased production on August 1, 2023. The timing of the resumption of production is not yet clear, but it will take at least 1-3 months to prepare for the subsequent resumption of normal production. The implementation of the policy exceeded previous market expectations, and the volatility of the supply side was further amplified.
China's total recycled tin has a high proportion of global recycled tin, but there is still a lot of room for improvement in the proportion of domestic output compared with developed countries. According to the data of the tin branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, China's recycled tin output will reach 50,000 tons in 2021, accounting for 60% of the world's total recycled tin supply, 25% of the total domestic refined tin output, and 33% of the total domestic tin demand.
From 2023 to 2025, the global refined tin production capacity will maintain slow growth, and the expansion areas will be concentrated in Africa, Europe and Asia, taking into account the progress of projects in each region and the operation status of tin mines in each region, we expect the global new tin ore production in 2023-2025 to be -0.54, +1.27 and +14,900 tons.
Recycled tin is expected to account for 20% of global supply. Overall, it is estimated that the global refined tin supply from 2023 to 2025 will be 36.65, 38.24, and 401,000 tons, respectively, with a year-on-year change of -1.80%, +4.33%, and +4.86%, and a compound growth rate of 2.42% in 2022~2025.
2.3. Demand side: semiconductors are gradually ushering in a reversal, and new energy is rapidly driving demand
The tin consumption structure is relatively concentrated, concentrated in solder, chemicals and tinplate, and tin solder not only accounts for the highest proportion of existing tin consumption, but also is one of the fastest growing areas of demand in the future.
According to the ITA, tin consumption in 2022 was mainly solder, chemicals and tinplate, accounting for 50%, 16% and 12% respectively. Considering the rapid growth of demand in photovoltaic installed capacity, new energy vehicles, artificial intelligence and other fields, the demand for tin solder is expected to be rapidly pulled, and the demand for tin may usher in rapid growth.
Global refined tin consumption fluctuates greatly, with refined tin consumption reaching a new high of 390,000 tons in the past 10 years in 2021. Since 2016, with the recovery of semiconductor demand, the global refined tin consumption has increased steadily, and the decline in semiconductor demand in 2019 has dragged down tin consumption, and the recovery of semiconductor consumption in 2021 has driven tin consumption to a new high, and in 2022, due to the decline in consumer electronics demand and the repeated impact of the domestic epidemic, the global refined tin consumption consumption will decline.
Under the wave of new energy, the increase in photovoltaic installed capacity and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles are expected to provide new increments for the growth of tin demand, while the semiconductor cycle is expected to bottom out, the rapid development of AI, the increase in computing power demand will drive tin demand, the demand for tin basic disk is gradually improving, and the demand for tin solder is expected to drive the overall demand for refined tin, and we expect that the global tin demand is expected to increase from 390,000 tons in 2021 to 429,000 tons in 2025, with a compound growth rate of about 3.8% from 2022 to 2025.
Tin based solder powder materials are widely used in the electronics industry due to their excellent performance and reliability, and under the rapid development of artificial intelligence, the semiconductor field is expected to recover rapidly, thereby rapidly driving the demand for tin.
According to ITA data, according to the terminal demand, the downstream applications of electronic tin solder can be divided into other consumer electronics, computers, communication equipment, automobiles, industrial equipment, medical and other, military and aviation applications, of which other consumer electronics, computers, communication equipment, and automobiles account for a total of 84%, which is highly correlated with the prosperity of the semiconductor industry.
With the rapid development of artificial intelligence, the demand for semiconductors is expected to grow again, and the demand for tin is expected to usher in rapid growth. According to the compound growth rate of demand in various terminal fields of tin from 2022 to 2025, the communication and automotive electronics fields will maintain a high growth rate, and the growth rate of other fields will maintain positive growth.
By fitting the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and tin prices, we find that the bottoming out of tin prices is close to the bottoming out time of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.
On March 20, 2020, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index bottomed out and began to rebound, and tin prices bottomed out on March 27, 2020 and began to rebound, with a lag of about 1 week.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index peaked and fell on December 27, 2021, and tin prices peaked and fell on March 3, 2022, with a lag of about 1 quarter in tin prices.
On October 18, 2022, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index bottomed out again, and tin prices began to rebound on October 31, 2022, with a lag of about 2 weeks.
The year-on-year growth rate of global semiconductor sales may have bottomed out, and semiconductor demand is expected to gradually improve. Through a review of the year-on-year growth rate of global semiconductor sales, we find that the year-on-year growth rate from the peak to the valuation lasted 8 months and the longest lasted 27 months, while the year-on-year growth rate of global semiconductor sales in this cycle peaked in June 2021 and bottomed out in April 2023, and then the year-on-year decline continued to narrow, and the year-on-year decline in global semiconductor sales narrowed to 4.5% in September 2023.
In the photovoltaic field, tin solder is mainly used in photovoltaic ribbon (also known as tin-coated ribbon), and photovoltaic ribbon is an important auxiliary material in the module, which is used in the connection of photovoltaic cells, which has an important impact on the conversion efficiency and service life of the module.
According to SMM, 550 tons of photovoltaic ribbon are required for a single GW of photovoltaic modules, and considering that the wire diameter will become thinner in the future, the amount of welding strip for photovoltaic modules will gradually decrease, assuming that the consumption of a single GW welding strip in 2023/2024/2025 will be 450/430/420 tons. According to SMM, tin-based solder strips account for 17%, tin accounts for 63% of tin-based solder, and it is expected that the global demand for tin in 2023-2025 will be 2.38, 2.62, and 28,100 tons, with a compound growth rate of 21.7% in 2022~2025.
Under the background of "dual carbon", with the gradual increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, the consumption of electronic components for new energy vehicles has increased significantly compared with the demand for traditional fuel vehicles, which is expected to increase the demand for tin for single vehicles.
According to the tin industry shares in the interactive platform said, new energy vehicles than traditional fuel vehicles with tin demand doubled, according to SMM data, new energy vehicles with tin about 700 grams, with the gradual growth of the amount of components in the future, tin bicycle consumption or is expected to further increase. With the increase in the penetration of new energy vehicles, we expect the demand for tin solder in the automotive field to be 3.39/3.58/37,800 tons from 2023 to 2025, with a three-year compound growth rate of about 6.00%.
2.4. Balance between supply and demand: the tight balance continues, and the price of tin is easy to rise and difficult to fall
In the next three years, the global refined tin will always be in a tight balance between supply and demand, and the price is easy to rise and difficult to fall.
On the supply side, the grade of the main supply mines has declined seriously, due to extensive development and over-exploitation in the early stage, the grade has declined from about 10% in 2011 to 1% at present, and the decline in the grade of onshore mining in Indonesia is also serious.
On the demand side, driven by photovoltaics and automotive electronics, coupled with the emergence of the bottom of the semiconductor cycle, the demand side is expected to improve. It is estimated that the supply-demand gap in 2023-2025 will be -1.6, -2.1, and -15,000 tons, and it will always maintain a tight balance in the past three years.
3. Earnings forecast and valuation
3.1. Profit forecast and business split
We expect that in the context of the shutdown of tin mines in Wa State in Myanmar and the decline in the domestic reserve-production ratio, tin supply may gradually become tight, and at the same time, on the demand side, semiconductor demand will improve in the future in the context of the rapid development of artificial intelligence and the emerging photovoltaic industry. With tight supply and recovery in demand, it is expected that tin prices will gradually rise in the future.
Price: It is estimated that the tin price from 2023 to 2025 will be 21.25/23/250,000 yuan/ton (tax included) respectively.
Resource self-sufficiency rate: It is assumed that the self-sufficiency rate of tin resources will be 31% from 2023 to 2025, the self-sufficiency rate of copper resources will be 21% from 2023 to 2025, and the self-sufficiency rate of zinc resources will remain unchanged at 69% from 2023 to 2025.
Based on the above assumptions, we expect the company to achieve revenue of 463.16, 493.65 and 52.579 billion yuan from 2023 to 2025, a year-on-year change of -10.9%, +6.6% and +6.5% respectively, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 15.95, 1.991 and 2.386 billion yuan, an increase of 18.5%, 24.8% and 19.8% year-on-year respectively, and EPS of 0.97, 1.21 and 1.45 yuan per share respectively.
Based on the stock price on January 3, 2024, the average valuation of comparable companies in 2023~2025 is 18.9, 12.6 and 11.2 times, and the shares of tin industry are 14.9, 12.0 and 10.0 times, respectively.
As a leader in the tin industry, the company's refined tin output ranks first in the world in recent years, and its tin resource reserves rank first in the world, accounting for 14.5% of the world's tin resource reserves in 2022. In 2022, the company's tin metal domestic market share will be 47.78%, and the global market share will be 22.54%. As the tin industry enters an upward cycle, the company is expected to fully benefit from this upward cycle.
Rising commodity prices provide companies with performance elasticity.
Through sensitivity calculation, we found that for every 10,000 yuan/ton increase in tin price, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023-2024 will increase by 1.49 million yuan and 152 million yuan respectively, and for every 2,000 yuan/ton increase in zinc price, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023-2024 will increase by 1.14 million yuan and 120 million yuan respectively.
With the gradual recovery of tin demand and the supply reduction caused by the shutdown of production in Myanmar, it is expected that the increase in commodity prices will contribute to the company's profit elasticity.
4. Risk warning
Tin supply exceeded expectations. Due to the impact of the decline in ore grades in major mining countries, the future regional production in Myanmar and Indonesia may be affected, and if there is a new mine supply in major mineral areas, it may break the expectation of supply crunch, or cause tin prices to fall.
Tin demand fell short of expectations. The slow recovery of semiconductor demand, the growth rate of photovoltaic and automotive electronics is less than expected, and the growth rate of the demand side is less than expected, which may cause tin prices to fall.
The company's capacity utilization rate was less than expected, and the shutdown and maintenance time exceeded expectations. The company's equipment needs to be shut down for maintenance every year, and if the shutdown and maintenance time is longer than expected, it will have an impact on the company's product output, and then affect the company's current performance.
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