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Will China's space industry admit defeat? Musk: SpaceX will put 80% of the Earth's payload into orbit

author:Great Power Science and Technology Academy
Will China's space industry admit defeat? Musk: SpaceX will put 80% of the Earth's payload into orbit

In 2023, Musk will earn 770 billion!

Equal distribution to the Chinese will give 550 yuan. But Musk's greater gain is in aerospace, and he has supported the earth's astronautics.

Musk once said on Twitter X: "If there are no serious launch anomalies, SpaceX will put 80% of Earth's payload into orbit in 2023." And that's not even counting the Starship spaceship. ”

In 2023, a total of 222 space launch attempts were carried out around the world, and 211 successful orbital launch missions were carried out. Among them, China has successfully carried out nearly 70 space launch missions and launched more than 200 spacecraft. In terms of the number of orbital launches, SpaceX's F9 and FH series rockets have launched a total of 96 times, all of which have been successful, accounting for 45.5% of the world's successful orbital launch missions.

However, SpaceX's 96 launches have put more than 1,250 tons of payloads and 12 astronauts into mission orbit, accounting for more than 80% of the global in-orbit payload mass.

That is, China has launched quite a few times, but the launch tonnage is insufficient.

If you consider the Starship spacecraft that has been launched twice, the launch weight is more than 95%.

Let's take a look at SpaceX's launch data from previous years:

In 2020, there were 26 launches, of which 12 were commercial orders and 14 were Starlink, accounting for 54% of the total number of launches;

In 2021, there were 31 launches, of which 14 were commercial orders and 17 were Starlink, accounting for 55% of the total number of launches;

In 2022, there were 61 launches, of which 27 were commercial orders and 34 were Starlink, accounting for 56% of the total number of launches.

In 2022, SpaceX launched a total of 695 tons of payloads, of which how many tons were accounted for by the Starlink mission? The answer is about 527.448 tons.

SpaceX's vice president, Bill Jestenmeier, said during a hearing before the U.S. Senate Subcommittee on Space and Science that they expect to increase the frequency of missions to about 12 per month in 2024, for a total of 144 flights by 2024. To achieve this, they need to launch missions every 2.8 days, compared to the current rate of launching missions every 3.9 days.

We look ahead to 2024. China's aerospace achievements will also be remarkable. These included 4 manned spacecraft missions.

Will China's space industry admit defeat? Musk: SpaceX will put 80% of the Earth's payload into orbit

In addition, the lunar exploration mission will also be technological

The China Space Administration will also carry out lunar exploration missions, and plans to launch a probe in 2024 to conduct in-depth exploration of the moon, including lunar resource exploration, lunar scientific research and technical experiments.

Will China's space industry admit defeat? Musk: SpaceX will put 80% of the Earth's payload into orbit

According to the plan, the Tianzhou-7 cargo spacecraft will be launched at the Wenchang Cosmodrome in early 2024.

At present, the cargo spacecraft has completed the factory work and was recently transported to the Wenchang space launch site. Next, final assembly and testing will be carried out according to the plan.

Considering that Musk's SpaceX will launch multiple Starship spacecraft in 2024, China's aerospace is still far behind private American companies.

Even if, in 2030, China will achieve a manned landing on the moon as scheduled, according to the current technological trends and developments.

China is still far behind in the space sector.

Will China's space industry admit defeat? Musk: SpaceX will put 80% of the Earth's payload into orbit

According to the announcement of the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, although we are large, our strength is not strong enough, so we have been reminding ourselves not to be proud and complacent.

China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation pointed out in the commentary: Compared with the top commercial aerospace company SpaceX, there are still certain gaps and shortcomings, and the overall size is not strong, big but not excellent.

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