Source: Brokerage China
In 2023, the performance disparity of equity fund products in the whole market has reached 114.13%, and the performance differentiation data has exceeded the level of 2022.
Wind data shows that as of the end of 2023, the annual performance disparity of public fund products in the whole market is as high as 114.13%, which is driven by the performance of overseas QDII funds under GF Fund and new energy funds under Bank of Shanghai Fund.
The difference between strength and weakness is striking
The Securities Times and Brokerage China reporter noted that as of now, the cumulative annual return of GF Global Select Fund under GF Fund in 2023 is 67.63%, far ahead of other fund products, including the amazing return of 58.56% created by ChinaAMC Beijing Stock Exchange Fund in the A-share Beijing Stock Exchange sector, and the existence of 67.63% data has further widened the performance differentiation of weaker fund products in 2023.
At the same time, the Bank of Shanghai New Energy Industry Select Fund under the Bank of Shanghai Fund is at the bottom of the whole market, and the cumulative net value loss of the fund product focusing on the new energy track will reach an astonishing 46.50% in 2023. The above data also greatly exceeds the performance disparity of public offerings in 2022. In 2022, the highest rate of return of equity funds is close to 49%, while the cumulative loss of the worst equity funds is 50%, and the difference between the strength of equity funds is less than 100%.
It is worth noting that the 67.63% data created by QDII funds in 2023 has surpassed the annual rate of return of the most bullish A-share fund products in one fell swoop. The layout and investment research have begun to improve, and QDII products have begun to have positive feedback on the operation of public fund companies, especially in the profit level of fund companies, the core factor is that the annual performance elasticity of QDII products has begun to improve significantly, thereby attracting a large number of retail funds to subscribe for products with high yield needs.
The proportion of institutional investors in the above products has hit the second lowest level in the 13 years of operation of the product, highlighting the significant characteristics of retail investors. According to the data disclosed by the above products, as of the end of June 2023, the institutional holding ratio of GF Global Select Fund has been as low as 2.11%, and the proportion of retail investors has reached an astonishing 97.89%.
It is difficult to obtain management fee income
The profitability of the top public offerings in the overseas market, as well as the bottom of the small and medium-sized public offerings in the mainland A-share market, also further highlight the difficulty of public offerings in the fierce competition of involution homogeneous track, and the difficulty of obtaining management fee income.
Specifically, GF Global Select Fund has actually been established for 13 years, but for a long time, the QDII fund can not actually contribute attractive management fee income to the fund company, in the worst year, the total asset size of the product is less than 150 million yuan, and from 2020 to show high performance flexibility, the scale of the product began to soar, the share size on December 31, 2020 was 716 million, and the total capital scale jumped to 2.384 billion yuan, the product began to gradually contribute considerable management fee income, and when the time came to the end of September 2023Industry insiders expect that considering the huge subscription impact of each round of annual performance ranking in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of the following year, the asset scale of GF Global Select Fund may further soar, which means that the public fund will also enter the stage of substantial profit contribution on QDII products, especially at the level of management fee income of a single product.
Compared with the head public offering from the highly homogeneous product type, the track involution competition of the A-share fund, cut into the overseas market investment, small and medium-sized public funds in the homogeneous and involution of the A-share fund track, facing great market competition pressure, taking the new energy track of the A-share fund as an example, the track is actually full of a large number of the same type of theme fund products, including many star fund managers, The related products managed by the top fund managers, as the characteristics of the Bank of Shanghai New Energy Industry Select Fund, if there is no halo effect comparable to that of the top fund managers, the performance breakthrough alone actually means that it is difficult for such homogeneous theme funds to complete the jump in the scale of a single product, and it is difficult for management fee income to cover operating and personnel costs.
Taking the 2022 data as an example, the annual management fee income charged by the Bank of Shanghai New Energy Industry Select Fund is only 660,000 yuan, and after the huge loss in annual performance and the bottom of the performance, the redemption problem of funds may exacerbate the pressure on its management fee income.
U.S. stocks may need to be cautious in 2024
Relevant institutions also have differences on the judgment of the A-share new energy track and the U.S. stock market that investors are concerned about.
"For developed markets such as U.S. stocks, which outperformed in 2023, we should maintain a certain amount of caution in 2024. Huang Liang, manager of the Southern Global Select Fund, believes that on the one hand, the impact of high interest rates on corporate earnings will gradually be revealed in the 2024 interim report. On the other hand, the current relatively high interest rate environment is likely to last longer than the market expects, which will also adversely affect the valuation of risk assets. Hong Kong stocks remain weak in 2023 due to the sluggish economic recovery in Chinese mainland and the rapid decline in liquidity in the Hong Kong market. If Chinese mainland's economy enters the process of steady recovery, the current Hong Kong stock market is a market with dual advantages in valuation and growth potential among the world's major markets.
He believes that the shift of overseas funds to Hong Kong stocks from underweight will also bring incremental financial support to the entire market. In terms of industries and individual stocks, there are good investment opportunities in the new economic fields that benefit from the policy adjustment and the traditional economic fields that benefit from the economic stabilization policy.
However, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is more optimistic about the outlook for U.S. stocks. Goldman Sachs' December 2023 outlook projected the S&P 500 at a target of 5,100 by the end of 2024. UBS AG believes that the future rally in the US stock market will be more modest, with the target point of the S&P 500 index at 4,700 points by the end of 2024.
On the new energy track, Cui Chenlong, manager of Qianhai Open Source New Economy Fund, believes that new energy operators have begun to improve their business models, with higher certainty of medium and long-term growth, lower penetration rate, strong operational stability, and large development space in the future than the manufacturing side, and will pay attention to the medium and long-term investment opportunities of new energy operating enterprises. Overall, the supply of traditional energy may remain in a tight balance due to many factors, which will accelerate the substitution of new energy and further improve its cost performance. Although overseas demand fluctuates in the short term, based on the above factors, the certainty of long-term demand is high, and there is no need to worry too much about the sustainability of global demand. The market's concern about short-term overcapacity in some segments will most likely be covered by demand growth in the coming period, and there is no need to worry too much about the above problems in the current position.
Cui Chenlong emphasized that the accelerated development of AI will also stimulate the new energy track, and the joint emergence of AI and new energy is expected to make the development speed and height of the whole society to an astonishing degree. In the future, the speed of implementation of robots and autonomous driving may far exceed the expectations of the development of the original industry.
Editor-in-charge: Wan Jianyi
Proofreading: Wang Wei
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