Important news during the holiday may affect the stock market (with IPO calendar + institutional strategy)

Macro news

The time for the two sessions of the National People's Congress in 2024 has come

On December 29, 2023, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress voted and adopted the decision on convening the Second Session of the 14th National People's Congress. According to the decision, the Second Session of the 14th National People's Congress will be held in Beijing on March 5, 2024. The 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) recently held a chairman's meeting and suggested that the Second Session of the 14th CPPCC National Committee be held in Beijing on March 4, 2024.

Ministry of Finance: Moderately increase the scale of fiscal expenditure, study and improve the individual income tax system that combines comprehensive and categorical income

The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Finance said that the next step will be to make good use of the fiscal policy space, coordinate all kinds of financial resources, improve various policy tools, strengthen policy support and financial guarantees, focus on high-quality development, and solidly promote Chinese-style modernization. Maintain the necessary spending intensity. Make good use of policy tools such as the issuance of additional treasury bonds, local government general bonds, and local government special bonds, increase the overall planning of fiscal funds, appropriately increase the scale of fiscal expenditure, and better play the role of stimulating domestic demand and promoting economic circulation. With regard to perfecting the direct tax system, it is necessary to focus on perfecting the direct tax system with income tax and property tax as the mainstay, gradually increasing the proportion of direct tax, and study and improve the individual income tax system that combines comprehensive and categorical taxation.

National Bureau of Statistics: The total current price of GDP in 2022 is 1204724 billion yuan

On December 29, 2023, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the Announcement on the Final Verification of GDP in 2022 on its website. After final verification, in 2022, the total current price of GDP will be 1204724 billion yuan, a decrease of 548.3 billion yuan from the preliminary calculation, and an increase of 3.0% over the previous year at constant prices, which is the same as the preliminary calculation.

National Bureau of Statistics: The manufacturing PMI in December 2023 was 49.0% and the non-manufacturing PMI was 50.4%

In December 2023, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.0%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the level of manufacturing prosperity has declined. The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.4 percent, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, higher than the critical point, indicating that the expansion of the non-manufacturing industry has accelerated.

Finance & Securities

Let the profit be about 900 million yuan! Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges push a new round of fee reduction "combination punch"

On December 29, 2023, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges respectively issued notices on the reduction and exemption of relevant fees for 2024, and launched a number of fee reduction measures in 2024. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange expects that the overall fee reduction will exceed 320 million yuan in 2024, and the fee reduction will continue to increase, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange has preliminarily calculated that the fee reduction is expected to give about 600 million yuan to the market.

The Shanghai Stock Exchange announced: The reason for the late limit of Industrial Bank was preliminarily ascertained

On December 29, 2023, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued a circular on the abnormal trading of IB shares in the closing call auction on December 29, 2023. According to the circular, after preliminary verification, it was caused by an investor's large declaration of transaction at a price that significantly deviated from the latest trading price of the stock. On the same day, when the overall performance of bank stocks was weak, the late bidding of Industrial Bank rose straight up. Specifically, please poke: Suddenly! Industrial Bank has pulled the limit straight at the end of the day, what's going on?

The Shanghai Stock Exchange further optimizes the disclosure rules for companies at risk of delisting and strengthens the disclosure of delisting risks in a targeted manner

In order to enhance the pertinence and effectiveness of delisting risk warnings and clarify investors' expectations as soon as possible, on December 29, 2023, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued the Guidelines for Information Disclosure of Delisting Risk Companies and simultaneously optimized the format of relevant announcements, centralizing the information disclosure requirements related to delisting risks, and further creating a concise and friendly rule system to facilitate the inquiry and comparison of market participants such as listed companies. The release of the Guidelines for Information Disclosure of Delisting Risk Companies will help focus on a variety of mandatory delisting scenarios and further enhance the effect of delisting risk disclosure. In the next step, the Shanghai Stock Exchange will continue to follow the unified deployment of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, focus on comprehensively strengthening supervision, urge delisting risk companies to fulfill their information disclosure obligations, promote various delisting supervision work in accordance with laws and regulations, adhere to the principle of "retreating as much as possible", promote the survival of the fittest in the market, and maintain the smooth operation of the capital market.

The Shenzhen Stock Exchange and ChinaClear issued the implementation rules for the B-to-H business, which came into force on January 8

According to the website of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, in order to regulate the conversion of domestically listed foreign shares into overseas listed foreign shares in the Shenzhen market, and the registration and depository and transaction settlement business related to listing and trading on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and China Securities Depository and Clearing Co., Ltd. jointly formulated the "Implementation Rules for the B-to-H Business of China Securities Depository and Clearing Co., Ltd. on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange", which will come into force on January 8, 2024.

Industries & Companies

From January 1, 2024, the mortgage of 1 million yuan will be reduced by about 59 yuan per month

From January 1, 2024, the reporter learned from a number of banks that the interest rates of most existing housing loans will be lowered by 10 basis points. For example, for a personal loan with a loan of 1 million yuan, a term of 30 years, and equal repayment of principal and interest, the monthly payment is reduced by 58.54 yuan. At the same time, this adjustment does not conflict with the adjustment of the interest rate of the existing first home loan in September 2023.

The evaluation criteria for securities firms and investment banks are clear

On December 29, 2023, the Securities Association of China revised and issued the Measures for the Evaluation of the Quality of Investment Banking Business of Securities Companies (hereinafter referred to as the "Evaluation Measures"), which optimizes the scoring method of practice quality, strengthens the use of evaluation results, urges investment banks to strengthen their awareness of quality, accelerates the shift from focusing on "approvability" to focusing on "investability", and guides securities companies to comprehensively improve the quality of investment banking business. For details, please stamp: The evaluation criteria for brokerage investment banks are clear! Just now, the China Securities Association has released the latest release

The central bank agreed to change Alipay to no actual controller

Recently, the People's Bank of China's updated information on the change of major matters of non-bank payment institutions shows that it agrees to change Alipay (China) Network Technology Co., Ltd. to no actual controller. Alipay (China) Network Technology Co., Ltd. is wholly owned by Ant Technology Group Co., Ltd. Alipay's adjustment stems from Ant Group's adjustment of its voting rights structure at the beginning of this year, and after the adjustment, there is no longer a situation where shareholders control Ant Group solely or jointly. In addition, Ant Group's subsidiaries, including Hang Seng Electronics and Cathay Pacific Property & Casualty, were simultaneously changed to no actual controller. For details, please stamp: The central bank agrees! Alipay news

Ali was sentenced to pay JD.com 1 billion yuan

On December 29, 2023, the Beijing Higher People's Court made a first-instance judgment in the case of JD.com v. Zhejiang Tmall Network Co., Ltd., Zhejiang Tmall Technology Co., Ltd., and Alibaba Group Holding Co., Ltd., finding that the monopolistic behavior of abusing its dominant market position to carry out the "either-or" monopolistic behavior was established, causing serious damage to JD.com, and ordered JD.com to compensate 1 billion yuan. Please poke for details: Ali was sentenced to pay Jingdong 1 billion yuan!

The annual revenue is nearly 150 billion yuan, and the net profit is 73.5 billion yuan

On December 29, 2023, Kweichow Moutai released its production and operation in 2023. The company expects to achieve a total operating income of 149.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.20%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of about 73.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 17.2%. For details, please stamp: The latest release of "Stock King"! The annual revenue is nearly 150 billion yuan, and the net profit is 73.5 billion yuan

Shareholders have been compensated 1.086 billion yuan!

According to the calculation of China Securities Investor Protection Fund Co., Ltd., the total loss of investors in this case was more than 1.097 billion yuan, of which about 1.086 billion yuan had been actually compensated to qualified investors in the advance compensation, and the remaining amount of about 11.79 million yuan had not been collected by relevant qualified investors. The latest report on the Amethystum Storage case: The compensation process is nearly 99% complete, and 4 intermediaries have paid a heavy price!

Follow this week

This week's IPO subscription

According to the issuance arrangement, there are 3 new shares subscribed this week, and the specific subscription list is as follows:

Tuesday:

Xueqi Electric subscription code: 001387

Xidian Xinneng subscription code: 732312

Wednesday:

Yun Xingyu Subscription code: 889111

Lifting the ban on stocks this week

According to the statistics of Oriental Wealth Network, this week (January 1 to January 7), 77 listed companies in the A-share market will usher in the lifting of restricted shares. Based on the latest price of individual stocks, the total market value of 77 shares is 173.28 billion yuan. From the perspective of the scale of lifting the ban, Cambrian has the highest market value, reaching 20.263 billion yuan, in addition, the market value of Shenzhou Cell, BIWIN Storage, China Porcelain Electronics, Junshi Biotechnology, etc. also exceeds 10 billion yuan. From the perspective of the number of unrestricted shares, the number of 17 unrestricted shares exceeded 100 million shares, of which Guangdong Water Electrolysis had the largest number of restricted shares, reaching 361 million shares, and the type of restricted shares was private placement of institutional placement shares. In addition, the number of shares released by Shenzhou Cell has also exceeded 300 million shares.

CSI A50 Index released

On January 2, China Securities Index Co., Ltd. will officially release the CSI A50 Index, selecting 50 securities with the largest market capitalization in various industries as samples, depicting the structural characteristics of the capital market in multiple dimensions, and continuing to serve the needs of medium and long-term capital allocation.

The first round of domestic refined oil price adjustment in the new year will begin

The first round of domestic refined oil price adjustment in 2024 will start at 24 o'clock on January 3, and oil prices may face the first rise in 2024. On December 19, 2023, domestic oil prices experienced the last adjustment of 2023 and recorded the largest decline of the year.

Institutional Strategy

Haitong Securities: The spring market may have been launched

The strategy team of Haitong Securities believes that (1) the current market background and capital are similar to those in early 2019, and learning from history, the market is often a sign of the start of the market. (2) The first quarter is usually a period of intensive introduction of domestic policies, and overseas liquidity also tends to be loose, which is expected to jointly catalyze the spring market of A-shares. (3) In 2024, the earnings of listed companies will enter an upward period, and the growth of Baima is expected to be better, such as hard technology such as electronics and medicine, and there may be phased opportunities in finance.

CITIC Securities: The market will usher in an important inflection point in January

The strategy team of CITIC Securities believes that it is expected that the economic policy will continue to increase in January, the New Year's Eve effect of various capital behaviors will be more obvious, investor confidence will begin to turn positive, and the market will usher in an important inflection point in January. In terms of configuration, it is expected that products going overseas, independent science and technology, new consumption, and low dividend volatility will become the main directions, and in January, it is recommended to give priority to the super-falling growth represented by the science and technology innovation board. On the one hand, from the perspective of market expectations, various economic policies represented by real estate are expected to continue to increase in the middle of this month, and it is expected that non-economic policies represented by online games will continue to be optimized, promoting the sustained and steady recovery of the economy, and market expectations will begin to turn positive. On the other hand, from the perspective of investor behavior, it is expected that the New Year's Eve effect of funds will be more obvious, the market ecology of "speculation" will usher in a significant improvement at the beginning of the year, the public offering is expected to take the initiative to turn to the offensive, private placement or significantly increase the position, insurance capital or gradually increase the dividend low volatility, wealth management will follow the active entry, the outflow of foreign capital is nearing the end, and investor confidence will usher in an inflection point.

China Securities Construction Investment: From falling into panic again to rekindling hope

The strategy team of China Securities Construction Investment believes that the market sentiment index continued to weaken in December 2023 due to the weak domestic economic data and the weaker-than-expected policy strength. From close to 50 at the beginning of the month all the way to below the level of 7 on the 26th of the month, there was a significant adjustment in small-cap stocks with obvious money-making effect in the early stage. However, investor sentiment unexpectedly improved sharply on December 28 and 29. This is not only a requirement for the market to rebound after the sharp fall, but also may be related to factors such as the self-help of institutions at the end of the year to raise institutional heavy stocks, and the reallocation of assets by foreign investors after the Christmas holiday. Looking ahead to January 2024, the recovery of the sentiment index is still expected to continue, and the market may enter a recovery market, but from the current sub-indicators, the time and strength of the recovery may be limited.

Everbright Securities: Winter is coming to an end

Everbright Securities' strategy team believes that historically, the first quarter has often been the quarter when monetary policy adjustments have been made, and at the same time, the financial data in January usually ushered in a "good start". The current market has not yet formed a consensus expectation for policy and financial data in January 2024, which may bring the possibility of actual policy and financial data exceeding expectations, and is expected to be an important catalyst for market stabilization. In addition, the decline in US Treasury yields may provide some resilience. It is expected that the market style will gradually become more pro-cyclical sectors, with the food and beverage, building materials, automobile, petroleum and petrochemical, transportation and household appliances industries being the most noteworthy. If the market is volatile further, the high-dividend sector may still have defensive value.

Editor-in-charge: Wan Jianyi

Proofreading: Wang Wei

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