Chinanews.com, January 1 (Reporter Zhang Aolin, Meng Xiangjun) With the New Year's bell, 2024 has arrived. The smoke of war between Russia, Ukraine, Palestine and Israel is still permeating, the rapid development of artificial intelligence has caused ethical controversy, the problem of climate change is becoming more and more serious and needs to be addressed together, multiple changes in the world are progressing, the evolution of the international order is accelerating, and the world is intertwined with "crisis" and "opportunity".
In the new year, where is the world going? China News Network specially invited Su Hao, director of the Center for Strategy and Peace Studies of China Foreign Affairs University and vice president of the Institute of Global Governance and Development of Chinese University, Guo Xiangang, former vice president and researcher of the China Institute of International Studies, and Wu Shenkuo, doctoral supervisor of the Law School of Beijing Normal University, to look forward to the development of the international situation in 2024.
[Russia, Ukraine and Palestine and Israel, when will the smoke of gunpowder disperse?]
-- U.S. and European aid is unsustainable, and the "road to breaking the deadlock" is gradually emerging?
By the end of February 2024, the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine will enter its third year. "At present, Russia may gradually take the initiative and even have an advantage", Su Hao predicted the future trend of the situation between Russia and Ukraine.
Su Hao pointed out that with the passage of time, it has been difficult for Ukraine to achieve the established strategic goals, and the United States and European countries also need to think carefully, if they continue to provide military aid to Ukraine, the final result may be lower than expected.
Su Hao said that on the other hand, Russia, the Russian army on the frontal front is "getting stronger and stronger", and not long ago Russian President Putin made it clear that Russia's goals are not limited to the Donbas region, and Odessa can also be considered in the next step. This is actually a "two steps forward and one step back" way to finally ensure control of Donbass.
In addition, Su Hao believes that "the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has also affected the overall situation changes, making (the) strategic containment of the United States reappear." He pointed out that "the way to break the situation between Russia and Ukraine is likely to change from a military approach to a political and diplomatic one."
With the prolongation of the Ukraine crisis, a series of backlash effects brought about by sanctions against Russia, such as soaring energy prices, sharp price increases, and intensified social contradictions, are continuing to affect many European countries. At the same time, a series of issues such as aid to Ukraine and Ukraine's accession to the EU continue to tear apart the EU and deplete its international influence.
"Europe must reflect on whose interests it is to follow the US sanctions against Russia?" Guo Xiangang pointed out sharply in response to the dilemma faced by European countries.
Regarding the attitude of European countries on the Russia-Ukraine issue in 2024, Guo Xiangang believes that "Europe (countries) may adjust the policy of 'following the United States and sanctioning Russia' and resume economic exchanges with Russia, especially in energy cooperation, because it is in Europe's interests." ”
-- As the Palestinian-Israeli conflict intensifies, can we move towards a political settlement?
Another hot spot in the international community is the ongoing new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict. So far, more than 20,000 people have been killed, mostly civilians, in the conflict between Israel and Hamas, and the humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip has intensified.
Regarding whether the conflict can end in 2024, Guo Xiangang believes that "Israel is gradually realizing that it is impossible to completely eliminate Hamas. The Israeli army may search Gaza, announce the elimination of Hamas, and then withdraw from Gaza."
As for how the situation on the ground will develop once the conflict is over, Guo Xiangang believes that the prestige and influence of the Shiite forces led by Iran are expected to expand. "Hamas, Allah Lebanon, the Houthis and Iraqi militias are all Shiites, and they have won the support of the people at the bottom of the Middle East in this joint response to Israel's military action with Hamas," he analyzed.
"Only by resolving the 'two-state solution' can we truly resolve the root causes of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. When talking about the future trend of the Palestinian-Israeli issue, Guo Xiangang pointed out that after the end of this incident, the efforts of the entire Middle East region to explore a political solution based on the "two-state solution" may once again appear, so that the situation will evolve in the direction of a political settlement.
[The election and the right wing, how to go in the international "chess game"?]
-- Biden and Trump are expected to face off, and the U.S. election will affect the world
There is another major event in 2024 that could change the international situation, and that is the U.S. election.
In view of the future election, Su Hao pointed out that the election basically returned to the showdown between the two "old rivals" of the current President Biden and former President Trump.
For Biden, Su Hao pointed out that the current domestic economic problems in the United States are highlighted, and the continuous interest rate hikes have led to high inflationary pressure. The Biden administration's implementation of industrial restructuring and attracting foreign investment have not had obvious effects. In the diplomatic field, although Biden has tied European countries within the strategic framework of the United States, the situation between Russia and Ukraine is unfavorable to Ukraine and the United States and Western countries, and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has also seriously damaged the international image of the United States.
Not only that, Su Hao believes that "there are many serious social problems in the United States, such as political divisions, social divisions, and racial divisions, which are highlighted and are very unfavorable to Biden's approval rating." ”
On April 4, 2023 local time, former U.S. President Trump arrived at the Manhattan Criminal Court in New York for arraignment on the "hush money" case. Photo by China News Service reporter Liao Pan
On April 4, 2023 local time, former U.S. President Trump arrived at the Manhattan Criminal Court in New York for arraignment on the "hush money" case. Photo by China News Service reporter Liao Pan
On the other hand, Trump's candidacy is full of thorns. By the end of 2023, Trump had faced as many as 91 criminal charges, and both Colorado and Maine had ruled disqualified him from running for president there.
Despite the lawsuits, the current data shows that Trump's poll approval rating is higher than Biden's. In this regard, Su Hao analyzed, "Although Trump has obvious disadvantages, he will take advantage of these disadvantages to become advantages that attract the attention of voters." There is a trade-off between Biden and Trump, and a fierce rivalry is expected between the two. ”
"Whoever is elected, the overall international influence and influence of the United States should be weakened. Regarding the impact of the U.S. election, Su Hao believes that "as the United States gradually falls into trouble in the Russia-Ukraine situation, and the political dividends in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict are also disappearing, European countries may begin to consider keeping a distance from the United States." ”
Su Hao further pointed out that "some Asia-Pacific countries, especially developing countries, are also seriously thinking about whether it is completely in their own interests to be completely tied to the 'chariot' of the United States." After the U.S. election, the status of the countries of the Global South is likely to rise gradually. ”
-- Right-wing forces are on the rise, and the development of globalization is still irreversible
In addition to the United States, dozens of elections are expected worldwide in 2024, including presidential elections, parliamentary, state and local elections, etc. Previously, including Italy's far-right Brothers of Italy party becoming the country's largest political party, and Milley running for the new president of Argentina, in some countries, the trend of right-wing and far-right forces rising is becoming more and more obvious.
In this regard, Su Hao pointed out that although the process of globalization is still advancing, signs of anti-globalization are also emerging, which is manifested in obvious political right-leaning. He believes that this trend may be a concern of some people about the trend of globalization. However, the adoption of power politics and the Cold War model in handling international relations may lead to a more chaotic international situation, which will eventually turn into war.
"The practice of the right-wing forces is a historical regression", Su Hao analyzed, the mainstream of international relations is still pushing in the direction of globalization, and some countries want to reverse and get rid of it, but in fact they can't do it, which is an irreversible trend of human development.
Su Hao said, "For the truly serious and responsible countries in the world, including the people of all countries in the world, promoting globalization is conducive to the overall interests, economic development and social prosperity of all countries. ”
[AI and gas change, what will be the fate of mankind?]
-- Responding to climate change is imminent, and all countries should take responsibility
If there are many "visible" threats in 2024, then "invisible" threats are also quietly approaching. First and foremost, global warming, which is about how future generations of mankind will survive.
"In the future, global climate change is the biggest challenge facing humanity. Su Hao pointed out that "from the perspective of humanity as a whole, all countries should take responsibility to play a role in preventing climate warming." ”
However, as for how to take measures, Su Hao analyzed that although the international community has reached a general consensus, such as the need to reduce the use of fossil fuels. However, there is still a great deal of disagreement when it comes to specific targets, and these are the next steps that need to be carried out as soon as possible.
-- AI risks and opportunities coexist, and effective governance is urgently needed
In 2024, another "invisible" threat is the security of artificial intelligence (AI).
In recent years, AI technology has emerged one after another, and has become one of the important engines of social development, gradually and profoundly affecting people's daily life. While enjoying the dividends brought by AI, humans also have to consider how to "coexist" with AI.
"The rapid adoption of AI around the world has led to a variety of security risks, including technology, organizational management, and digital content, posing significant challenges. New risks need to be mitigated and mitigated through effective governance. Wu Shenkuo analyzed.
When talking about how to promote governance, Wu Shenkuo put forward the concept of "ethics first". He believes that there is an urgent need for AI governance at the global public level. In this process, special attention should be paid to the needs of developing countries and the provision of necessary technical and capacity assistance to achieve governance results.
Wu Shenkuo spoke highly of China's Global Artificial Intelligence Governance Initiative (hereinafter referred to as the "Initiative") proposed by China in 2023. He believes that the Initiative takes into account the concerns of various stakeholders around the world, integrates the Global Initiative on Development, Security and Civilization, demonstrates a systematic view of the future global digital governance ecosystem, and has a positive response on a global scale, which plays an important role in promoting future global digital governance. (ENDS)
Source: China News Network
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