Smokers and drunkards in 2023: Cigarettes are slowly becoming more expensive, alcohol is getting cheaper, and social attributes are decreasing

Hello everyone, I'm Blue and White.

In the last two days of 2023, I would like to talk to you about smoking and drinking.

Cigarettes and liquor are unique social consumption that integrates face, etiquette, addiction and comparison among Chinese.

As the old saying goes: there is no banquet without alcohol, and there is no separation between tobacco and alcohol.

As the old saying goes: guests come to worship the Lord and smoke is not accepted, and wine and half tea are full of shame.

As the old saying goes: cigarettes do not solve the bitterness of life, and spirits cannot eliminate the sorrow of the world.

The consumption of tobacco and alcohol is not only an important part of the consumption of social zero, but also reflects the changes of the times and concepts.

In the structure of social zero, grain, oil, food, beverages, tobacco and alcohol are the first major items of commodity consumption, which are more important than clothing, shoes and hats.

From January to November, the retail sales of tobacco and alcohol were +10.9% year-on-year, only 6.8% in the first quarter, and then faster and faster in the second and third quarters, with a growth rate of 16.2% in November, which was low and high throughout the year.

It can be said that smoking and drinking are the second most prosperous industry after catering and travel in 2023.

In the brokerage's report, the reason for the concise summary is: the demand for gifts has recovered.

This is very well said, or to put it another way, the core of tobacco and alcohol consumption is just four words: usher in the send.

When I bought cigarettes two days ago, I chatted with the boss for a few words, and there are fewer and fewer cheap cigarettes.

In the first ten years, cigarettes under 10 yuan, not to mention everywhere, there are too many choices.

We have 5 Hongqi Canals, as well as 45 cheap 5 cents, 4 Stone Forest Red Plum and White Sand, and 7 Hongta Mountain.

Speaking of this, I always remember when I was in school, there were two buddies next to me who bought cigarettes, one of them bought a bag of four or five canals, and his friend said with disdain: You can't buy a good cigarette?

I was stupid.

Up to more than 10 yuan, there are Emgrand, Shiqu, bonus group, gold leaf, the price is higher, it is the Yellow Crane Tower, Xiaosu Dasu, Hibiscus King, and the higher is the lotus and soft.

The original high, medium and low grades, with clear hierarchies, each takes what they need.

Later, I slowly found that there are fewer and fewer cigarettes under 10 yuan, either they are not sold in strips, and you can buy a few boxes sporadically after purchase, or they are out of stock when you ask, and they can only be bought in cigarette hotels in urban and rural areas and rural areas.

The boss told me that they also want to sell low-priced cigarettes, and if they can't buy them in other places, the retail cigarettes that can increase the price will be profitable, and the high-priced cigarettes are all upside down, and there are many people who enter the store, and they can also use cigarettes to bring alcohol, which is a popular picture.

According to data from tobacco control agencies and health organizations, the weighted average retail price of cigarettes in China was only 5.08 yuan in 2006, rose to 12.57 yuan a box in 2015, and reached 18.69 yuan in 2020.

As we all know, half of the price of cigarettes is tax.

According to a report by Yicai, at a price of 18.7, smokers consume an average of 0.52 yuan of tobacco for every pack of cigarettes smoked, pay 0.87 yuan in wages for employees in the tobacco industry, and pay 9.05 yuan in taxes for the state, accounting for 48.4% of the tax on a pack of cigarettes.

If the price increases, can we control smoking?

After raising the tobacco excise tax in 2015, cigarette consumption immediately fell the following year, but from 2019, production and sales have both climbed up, reaching 2.65 trillion cigarettes in 2022.

This year, we talked about the tobacco consumption in the social zero from January to November, and I thought that the first half of the year would not work, but who knew that the smokers were still strong, and the growth rate in the second half of the year exceeded double digits.

By 2030, the mainland's goal is to reduce the smoking rate among people over the age of 15 to less than 20%. At present, the adult smoking rate is still 24%.

Therefore, it is not enough to rely on price to control tobacco and tobacco through taxes, and non-price means are also very important.

In 2022, the adult smoking rate dropped to 19.4%, and the cigarette use rate of middle school students and e-cigarettes were the lowest among the 31 provinces in the country.

Is there still a possibility that the rise is not hard enough?

A few days ago, I saw a news that the French Ministry of Health plans to increase the price of a pack of cigarettes to 12 euros by 2025 and 13 euros in 2026, which is more than 100 yuan a pack.

They believe that the increase in cigarette prices is "the most effective anti-smoking measure", and that all public places such as beaches, parks, forests, and schools should deploy "smoke-free zones", and smoke-free will become the norm.

In the last 10 years, the price of tobacco in France has increased by 70%.

Looking at it this way, we, smokers who swallow clouds and smoke, have a pain in our flesh early.

Zheng Rong, a professor at the University of International Business and Economics, said that if the non-price tobacco control measures set by the WHO reach a moderate level, and the tax on a pack of cigarettes reaches 78%, the mainland can achieve the goal of "reducing the adult smoking rate to 20%".

She said that the ultimate goal of raising taxes is to raise prices, and the retail price of cigarettes per pack increased by 4.43 yuan from 2013 to 2020, indicating that smokers' "tax pain" is not significant.

Cigarettes are slowly getting more expensive, all over the world.

I see that the style of painting in the comment area is very interesting. Smokers are very unhappy and say that they will stop smoking when the price increases, and they just quit smoking.

Those who hate smoking say that the higher the rise, the better, anyway, if you don't smoke, let those smokers go in pain.

Smokers and non-smokers go both ways.

Whether the price of cigarettes should be raised or not, I personally support the "non-price means" tobacco control measures.

Especially the second-hand smoke that disregards the feelings of others, there are children who are still spitting clouds, smoking in the square by the river in the park, and some are even smoking in the elevator, will they die if they don't smoke?

Like the amount of low-price cigarette control, in the past few years, the price increase of liquor has also been achieved by "volume control".

The only difference is that cigarettes may slowly become more expensive in the future, but the liquor that has experienced fanatical hype, ignoring the pressure of dealers' inventories, and trying to use price increases to make profits, can no longer be replicated.

This year's wine price, there is a key word "upside down".

You look at the recent small abacus of wine companies, and they are still raising prices head-on.

On December 27, Moutai raised the ex-factory price of the sauce classic by 10 yuan to 218 yuan per bottle, and the golden prince raised it from 20 yuan to 178 yuan per bottle.

On the same day, Jian Nanchun raised the ex-factory price of its core product "Crystal Sword" by 20 yuan per bottle.

On the 28th, Shede Liquor raised the ex-factory price of the large single product "Taste Shede" by 20 yuan/bottle to 438 yuan/bottle.

Okay, okay, let's play like this, right? But what is the real market?

Now, except for Moutai, most of the liquor has a price inversion.

Whether it is the benchmark Feitian Guojiao 1573, the eighth generation of Puwu, Dream Blue, or the sub-high-end Shede, Crystal Sword, Qinghua Fen, the offline price is lower than the recommended retail price, catching up with the 618 and Double 11 promotions, the price of self-operated and official flag stores can even be lower by more than 30%.

At this time, strange things appeared: the liquor industry thought that it was a real estate company that "raised prices to destock" in 2015, and rushed to raise a wave of money on the eve of the New Year's Eve + Spring Festival.

The dealer was bitter, the inventory was pressed, and he had to reduce the price of the shipment.

Upstream price increases, downstream price reductions, liquor and tobacco are completely different, from the ex-factory price to the wholesale price to the retail price, this price transmission system, is about to be broken by the continuous pressure of wine companies to increase prices.

Some time ago, the China Liquor Circulation Association issued a statement saying that the main reason for the postponement of the 2023 Hangzhou Wine Expo, which was originally scheduled to be held in December, was: "Dealers and agents have too much backlog of inventory to make normal purchases, and half of the exhibitors have asked for the postponement of this exhibition."

The goods in hand can't be sold, and the people who sell wine don't play anymore.

When the tide receded, I found that not every brand can benchmark Moutai, and can copy the financial and social attributes of Boss Mao.

In the final analysis: the people who buy baijiu in 2023 will become poorer, and they are passing on the cold to everyone who sells baijiu.

Standing at the end of the year, looking at this year's consumption of tobacco and alcohol, behind the boom, there are also their own hidden worries.

Can smokers withstand the increasingly stringent tobacco control and the trend of increasing prices?

If you can't bear it, then quit, hello and I'm good.

Drunkards, can you generously contribute to the liquor that is fried at every turn, and the inventory is almost overwhelmed?

If you don't pay, then reduce the price until it is reasonable.

Therefore, the consumption of tobacco and alcohol in 2023 seems to be very strong, and it is more about the "scar repair" brought about by the recovery of social demand, but in the situation of "tobacco control" and "high inventory of liquor", it is difficult to become the starting point of a new round of outbreaks.

Tobacco and alcohol are excellent mediums for Chinese socialization.

It is precisely because of the excessive reliance on Chinese-style social networking that once young people's health awareness, workplace culture, and values change, and online games, fishing, milk tea and coffee, travel, and exhibitions instead of tobacco and alcohol, it will be a dead end.

My experience over the years, it turns out that you don't conform to the crowd when you smoke and drink, it seems to be out of place, you want to smoke when you see people, the cup should be lowered, and you can speak with honorifics, which is called "etiquette".

When you come up, look at the brand on the cigarette butt and wine bottle, relieve the embarrassment with smoking, and show arrogance with a big sip.

But it seems to have changed over the years, others let me not smoke, others poured wine and I excused myself, and no one would say anything.

Now I kind of understand that what everyone hates is not tobacco and alcohol, but the scheming, vanity, comparison, and face behind the so-called tobacco and alcohol socialization.

What kind of connections, circles, more rely on their own ability boundaries and ways of treating people to maintain, rather than relying on licking the big brother at the wine table.

If you don't want to smoke, don't smoke, if you don't want to drink, don't drink, good friends are still good friends, and if you don't talk together, you still have nothing to say if you smoke and drink again.

What is alcohol culture? With people close to you, you can drink as much as you want, and you don't have to look at anyone's face.

2024 is here, toast to the new year.

I'm Lan Bai, let's talk about this today, and we'll see you next time.