The Russian-Ukrainian war has lasted for nearly 2 years, and more than 600 days after the outbreak of the fighting, more and more countries have come back to the experience that this is not a simple national conflict, but the front line of the new Cold War between the East and the West.
【Russia-Ukraine conflict】
Many European countries are beginning to regret why they did not make the right choice as China did more than a year ago, and now they are unable to get out of the quagmire of war.
The biggest loser of the war
A very interesting point about the Russian-Ukrainian war is that Russia, the United States and even Ukraine are not losers, Russia has taken the four eastern regions of Ukraine, and has achieved a clear advantage on the front, and it is not excluded to expand the actual control area in the future.
【Russian Convoy】
Moreover, after the first war of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Russia has also completed its own wartime economic transformation and solved many problems in economic development, which can be said to kill multiple birds with one stone.
The United States has made a lot of money, its domestic military-industrial complex has received large orders and contracts, and by suppressing Russian-European energy cooperation, it has also reaped a wave of European leeks and ensured that the United States has a deeper and deeper grip on Europe.
The Biden administration has also gained votes because of its tough stance on Russia, at least in the early days of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Biden did gain a considerable degree of support for his efforts to promote military aid to Ukraine, so even if the current situation of the Russian-Ukrainian war is not good for the United States, it still has more benefits than disadvantages.
[Biden Administration]
Even Ukraine, which has completely brought the country into the abyss, cannot be said to have gained nothing, and Zelensky has at least used his performance on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield to reap a large amount of military and political investment.
As recently as December 2023, the EU launched negotiations on Ukraine's accession for the first time, and the Russian government has also said that they are not opposed to Ukraine's accession to an EU that is not hostile to Russia. So even if the war is lost, the government of Western Ukraine still has a good future.
But the situation in Europe is another matter, why Europe has become the international power most involved in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the reasons are comprehensive, first of all, Europe has indeed been forced by the United States, and sabotaging Russian-European cooperation such as the Nord Stream project is a warning from the United States.
[Europe is mired in the Russia-Ukraine conflict]
The United States is still the dominant player in the political and security spheres in Europe, and this forces Europe to obey.
But on the other hand, the fact that Europe is so deep has a lot to do with the Russophobic ideology left behind in their history, which has been regarded as the greatest threat by traditional Western European countries since its birth.
This is understandable, after all, Tsarist Russia is an expansionist land power country, and if it wants to develop further, it can only expand westward.
After the birth of the Soviet Union, Europe faced a greater threat on land, the Soviet Union was far more powerful than Tsarist Russia, and the European front line of the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union was in Berlin, which was already in the heart of Europe, and the Europeans could not afford not to be vigilant.
[Confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union in Berlin]
At that time, whether it was the United States or Europe, they all had a potential consensus, that is, when the Soviet Union's steel torrent pushed over, Europe could not be saved, and from the geopolitical situation, as long as Russia still exists, Europe will always face the threat of being invaded.
When Russia launched a special military operation, Europeans did not see a civil war between the Russian-Ukrainian brothers, but the possibility that the whole of Europe would be bulldozed by the Russian Army, which is why they were so active in supporting Ukraine.
【Russia-Ukraine conflict】
Europe fooled
But the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has developed so far, and Europe has seen two things clearly, one is that Russia has not flattened the military strength of the whole of Europe, otherwise the Russian-Ukrainian conflict would not have lasted almost two years.
Second, Russia's strategic posture towards the West is still defensive, and Putin is developing Russia by strengthening a new model of cooperation with the East, in other words, Russia has not thought about going west at all, and Europe has invested so many resources for so many years, but in the end it is lonely.
[The Russian army is fighting in Ukraine]
In the early days of the war, Europe judged that its own survival was the most critical issue, so it preferred to put aside economic development in the post-epidemic era and support Ukraine first.
This move directly led to the loss of high-quality and cheap energy imports from Russia and fell into severe inflation.
【Russian Energy Exports】
You must know that the status of Russian-European energy cooperation is not equal, Russia loses the European market, and there are other countries' markets to take over, after all, there has never been a shortage of countries to buy energy.
But Europe is different, energy is a necessity for Europe's survival and development, and if you can't buy Russia, you have to increase the price of high-priced energy from India, the United States and other countries, which has caused a great burden on the European economy.
But at this time, it is not realistic for Europe to turn around and continue to cooperate with Russia, because when the Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out, Europe set a very high tone in order to gain the understanding of the people, and the propaganda was to support Ukraine and defend freedom and democracy.
[European military aid to Ukraine]
If there is a sudden change of face at this time, it will be difficult for the people to accept it, and the credibility of the government will also drop sharply.
At this time, European countries realized that China's choice in the Russia-Ukraine conflict more than a year ago was the correct answer, although China and Russia have a very close relationship, but China has chosen a very flexible neutral attitude in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the fundamental demand is to cease fire and stop the war, and peacefully resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
This is because China knows very well that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is essentially a conflict between Russia and the West, and the bell must be tied to the bell, and the parties are the West, and it makes no sense for China to take sides.
【Defeated Ukrainian Army】
Secondly, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has certain interests for China, Russia has won, and the stronger strength of China and Russia will help to further counter the West, and if Russia loses, China can also be more active in Sino-Russian relations.
This has been vividly demonstrated in the war, and now Russia has not only gained an advantage on the battlefield, but also deepened Sino-Russian cooperation.
But the premise for China to do this is political, economic, and military independence, which Europe does not have, and even if Europe realizes that it is more in Europe's interest to remain neutral, the United States will inevitably tie it to its own anti-Russian chariot.
Sources:
[1] News background: Timeline of the development of the situation in Ukraine.xinhuanet [Citation date:2022-02-23]