Online car-hailing can't save the red flag, and this year's target of 400,000 vehicles may become a flash in the pan

If you want to ask, who is the independent brand with the hardest background but the most lack of presence? Who do you think of?

The great gentleman believes that the red flag is "difficult to stand out".

Although a few months ago, the special edition of Hongqi was praised by Lao Deng in the United States, but this cannot change the lack of competitiveness of the Hongqi brand in the weak and low-end in China.

01 Online car-hailing can't save Hongqi's malaise

Some people may retort, is the average monthly sales of 30,000 units still weak?

It is undeniable that under the vigorous reform of Xu Liuping, the former chairman of FAW Group, Hongqi's sales have risen considerably in the past few years, from more than 4,000 units sold annually in 2017 to break through the 100,000 mark in 2019, continue to double to break through the 200,000 mark in 2020, and reach 310,000 units in 2022. In the past November, Hongqi's sales reached a new high of 39,264 vehicles, and the cumulative sales of Hongqi from January to November reached 319404 vehicles, surpassing last year's annual sales in advance.

The average monthly sales volume is close to 40,000 units, and the sales volume has tripled in four years, and the rise of Hongqi seems gratifying, but it should be noted that four years ago, Hongqi's five models on sale only made up an average monthly performance of 8000+, and the results of 39264 units in November were supported by Hongqi's 11 models on sale.

From the perspective of specific models, there are currently six models with monthly sales of more than 1,000 units and three models with monthly sales of more than 5,000 units, namely medium-sized car H5, E-QM5, and medium-sized SUV HS5, of which Hongqi H5 has sold 101666 units in the first 11 months, E-QM5 sold 69,016 units, and HS5 sold 94,983 units, and the three models contributed 83% of the sales volume of the Hongqi brand.

In particular, it is worth mentioning that as the main model of the Hongqi brand, the E-QM5 is still mainly aimed at the low-end online car-hailing market. According to the data of Souche Zhiyun, from January to October this year, the operation proportion of Hongqi E-QM5 has been around 30%-40%, and it was close to 50% in the third quarter. From January to October this year, the overall insured volume of Hongqi E-QM5 was 50,407 units, while the number of insured vehicles purchased by private individuals was 26,509 units, accounting for 52.5%, that is, the operating proportion reached 47.5%.

It's not that online car-hailing sales are not sales, but the lessons of previous cars, including GAC Aion and BAIC, have told us that those brands that have made a fortune in the online car-hailing market will eventually have to plant a big heel in the personal market.

On the one hand, it is inevitable that the online car-hailing market will be saturated, and the online car-hailing market can support a temporary increase, but it is by no means a healthy car company that can survive for a long time; secondly, the resistance of individual users to the online car-hailing brand as a family car is obvious to all, and the more online car-hailing products are sold, the more the Hongqi brand will be added in the personal market in the future, and it will be even more difficult for the brand to create more than 200,000 high-end products.

From the year-on-year growth rate of only 17% in the first 11 months of this year, it can be seen that the red flag has hit the ceiling.

Previously, Xu Liuping proposed a goal of achieving sales of 400,000 units in 2022, 600,000 units in 2025, and 800,000-1 million units in 2030. However, judging from the current trend, whether Hongqi can reach 400,000 units in 2024 is still full of uncertainty.

02 All in 新能源，苍白且无力

In addition to the problem of indulging in the B-end market and the competitiveness of the product itself, the lag in the transformation of electrification is also a key reason.

According to the latest data from the China Passenger Car Association, the retail penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles in China exceeded 40.4% in November this year, an increase of 4 percentage points year-on-year. However, Hongqi is the only independent brand that can't get a new energy car at this year's Guangzhou Auto Show.

In the first 11 months of this year, Hongqi new energy models sold a total of 69,000 units, which is not a lot. However, when Changan, Geely, Great Wall and other independent friends are running at the pace of n new energy vehicles a year to join the electrification and intelligent transformation, Hongqi still only has an oil-modified E-HS9 and E-QM5, a low-end product created for online car-hailing.

At the All in New Energy Conference at the beginning of this year, Hongqi released the "Banner" high-end electric intelligent super architecture (FMEs), based on the new architecture will launch 15 new energy products, including the B-class pure electric premium sedan codenamed E001, the B-class pure electric SUV codenamed E202 will be launched in the second half of 2023, and the C+-class flagship high-end pure electric sedan codenamed E702 will be launched in the first half of 2024.

However, with Xu Liuping stepping down as chairman in February, Hongqi electrification began to fall into a long silence, and now that 2023 is coming to an end, the new car that was originally planned to be unveiled in the second half of the year has not been able to see a single wheel. As for the so-called in-vehicle system FAW.OS, self-developed 800Tops autonomous driving chip, and supercharging with a range of 300km in 5 minutes, a series of technologies are even more distant.

According to the plan announced at the beginning of the year, by 2025, Hongqi's sales will exceed 1 million, of which 500,000 new energy vehicles will be sold, with an average annual growth rate of 138%, and by 2030, Hongqi brand sales will exceed 1.5 million, and new energy vehicles will become the main sales body.

But now, the so-called All in New Energy has become a pale slogan.

Write at the end:

At present, China's auto market is in a critical period of reshuffle of fast fish eating slow fish, and Hongqi, as the "eldest son" of Zhengmiaohong, should have the most unique resources and influence. However, the reality has backfired.

On the one hand, it is the imbalance of product sales structure and the weakness of independent technology; on the other hand, it is the electrification and intelligent transformation that lags behind the market torrent; in this era of strong counterattack by independent car companies, it should be a good era for independent brands to rise together, if Hongqi continues to "put it badly" like this, and continue to rely on fuel vehicles and online car-hailing to live in a mess, Hongqi does not say that it will break through the 400,000 mark, it is estimated that it will not be long before it will be thrown to the bottom of the independent brand by the huge wave of reshuffle.