Addressing Climate Change Focuses on Action: Year-end International Economic Observation (5)

Source: Economic Daily

2023 is the hottest year on record in human history. The world is warming at an unprecedented rate and is approaching the critical threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius. Extreme weather events are frequent, and the severity of the climate crisis is increasing day by day. Extreme weather has had a serious impact on economic development, food supply, and energy security in all countries. The window of opportunity for global climate action is already very limited, and stepping up commitments, accelerating transformation and innovation, and strengthening solidarity and cooperation are key factors in driving climate action.

In 2023, people survived the hottest year on record on Earth. Climate change has become one of the most watched keywords in the world in 2023, with high temperature records being broken in many places, many climate records being broken, and extreme weather events frequent...... There is no "safe zone" for the climate crisis, and no one is immune. As the opening line of the movie "The Wandering Earth": "At first, no one cared about this disaster, it was just a wildfire, a drought, the extinction of a species, the disappearance of a city, until this disaster was closely related to everyone...... "Climate change has become a problem that cannot be ignored by all mankind." Strengthening cooperation and stepping up action has become a consensus to alleviate the problem.

The crisis intensified

In 2023, the rate of global warming is unprecedented. According to the State of the Global Climate 2023 report released by the World Meteorological Organization, 2023 was the hottest year on record in human history. The world is warming at an unprecedented rate and is approaching the critical threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius.

The Paris Agreement aims to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, beyond which the impacts of climate change are likely to become more severe, with catastrophic floods, droughts, forest fires and food shortages likely to increase. At present, the temperature has risen by 1.4 degrees Celsius, and there is not much "quota" left for the earth.

Climate change puts the planet in danger of breaching a "tipping point". Researchers from more than 90 international institutions recently jointly released the "Global Tipping Point" report, pointing out that under the current global warming trend, five climate "tipping points", including a large number of warm coral reef deaths, the disappearance of Greenland's ice sheet, and the melting of some permafrost, may be triggered, or will have an irreversible impact on the natural systems related to human survival.

In 2023, the global extreme weather events will be frequent, and the severity of the climate crisis will increase day by day. In South America, the Amazon rainforest, known as the "lungs of the earth," is experiencing a drought rarely seen in a century, Canada is facing its longest wildfire season on record, and the Arctic is experiencing its warmest summer since records began in 1900...... the word "extreme" seems to be mentioned more and more frequently, and terms like "unprecedented" and "record-breaking" describe climate change becoming the norm, meaning humanity is on the edge of a "climate cliff".

Extreme weather has had a serious impact on economic development, food supply, and energy security in all countries. Taking the United States as an example, according to the latest National Climate Assessment Report released by the US government, the US is warming about 60% faster than the overall global level, and extreme weather events cause nearly $150 billion in losses to the US every year.

Developing countries are more vulnerable, and vulnerable groups face more difficult living conditions. According to the World Meteorological Organization, from 1970 to 2021, extreme weather and other related events caused serious casualties and economic losses, and more than 90% of the world's reported related deaths occurred in developing countries. Developing countries are faced with the dual tasks of industrialization and low-carbon transition, and their economic and technological capabilities are insufficient to cope with climate change. Studies have pointed out that if global temperatures rise by 2.9°C, GDP in the 65 most vulnerable countries will fall by an average of 20% by 2050 and by 64% by 2100.

喜忧参半

The window of opportunity for global climate action is already very limited, and stepping up commitments, accelerating transformation and innovation, and strengthening solidarity and cooperation are key factors in driving climate action. The 28th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28) recently conducted the first global review of the Paris Agreement, opening a new chapter in the global climate process. As UN Secretary-General António Guterres said, "In our divided world, COP28 can show that multilateralism remains humanity's best hope for tackling global challenges".

This is a solid step forward in global climate governance. Progress at COP28 includes a clear "transition away from fossil fuels in a just, orderly and equitable manner", a proposal to double the capacity of renewable energy sources such as solar and wind by 2030, a commitment by 50 oil companies to reduce methane emissions, and the establishment of a "loss and damage" fund.

As the world's two major economies and the two largest emitters of greenhouse gases, China and the United States play a pivotal role in driving strong global climate action and accelerating the energy transition. On November 15, China and the United States jointly issued the Sunshine Country Statement on Strengthening Cooperation to Address the Climate Crisis, which identified specific cooperation plans and projects in key areas such as energy transition, methane and non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases, circular economy, and low-carbon cities.

It is worth noting that China is a major supporter and leader of the global energy transition. China has the largest renewable energy industry, ranking first in the world in terms of installed new energy capacity, power generation and new energy investment. 50% of the world's wind power equipment, 60% of power batteries, and 80% of photovoltaic equipment components are produced in China, making a significant contribution to the global renewable energy transition.

The real turning point in the fight against climate change is far from coming, and greenhouse gas emissions such as carbon dioxide continue unabated. According to the data, global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels may reach a record 36.8 billion tons in 2023, an increase of 1.1% from 2022. The United Nations Environment Programme's recent Emissions Gap 2023 report points out the grim situation for global emissions reductions: by 2030, the world could face a 2.5°C to 2.9°C warming scenario, with only a 14% chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C.

demand immediate action

At present, there is a "sense of contrast" between high expectations and insufficient practical actions in global climate governance. On the one hand, there is a clear gap between the actual actions of developed countries and the consensus of "working together to address the climate change crisis", with insufficient emission reductions and investment, and a weakening willingness to fulfill their commitments. On the other hand, there is a huge gap in the financial, technical and capacity-building support needed by developing countries, and the ability to take action on climate change is greatly constrained.

In terms of energy transition, energy policies in some developed countries have regressed, and fossil energy consumption and carbon emissions have increased instead of decreasing. In recent years, some European countries have announced the reopening of coal power plants to support coal power projects, which may delay the transition to sustainable energy. U.S. crude oil production hit a new high in 2023, and oil exports hit a new all-time record. At the same time, green trade barriers in developed countries are also cause for alarm. Taking the PV industry as an example, studies have shown that if protectionism is adopted, PV module prices are expected to be 20% to 25% higher in 2030 than under the globalization scenario, which will hinder the global promotion of emission reduction products and technologies. Protectionism and green trade barriers are not only hindering the recovery of the world economy, but also undermining collective efforts to address climate change and hindering the good momentum of the global low-carbon transition.

In terms of the funding gap, the "historical arrears" of developed countries are still empty promises. At the 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, developed countries, as the main "debtors" of the "climate deficit", pledged to provide $100 billion a year in climate finance to developing countries by 2020. But these promises have not yet been fulfilled. Despite COP28's agreement to create a new "loss and damage" fund to help developing and vulnerable countries vulnerable to climate change, the first contributions announced by developed countries to launch the fund totalled less than $1 billion, a fraction of the hundreds of billions of dollars pledged, and the poorest and most vulnerable countries are paying far more for climate-related disasters.

In terms of technical support, it is crucial to bridge key technology gaps and channel investment flows through climate cooperation. Africa's main demands at COP28 are to be treated fairly in the global climate change agenda, seek relevant financial and technical support, and urge the implementation of aid commitments. The international community should strengthen cooperation in the development and transfer of technologies to address climate change, further reduce the cost of development and deployment of green and low-carbon technologies, accelerate the pace of technology deployment, and promote a broader and faster low-carbon transition, so as to lay a solid foundation for climate change mitigation and adaptation.

There is no turning back from meeting climate commitments, and global cooperation on climate change is at a critical crossroads. Even in the short term, climate change poses a serious threat to human well-being and planetary health, including food security, water supply, and biodiversity, and there is an urgent need for multilateralism, solidarity and cooperation, and greater action in the next decade. (Economic Daily reporter Sun Yajun)