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The Economics of Christmas Trees of 10 Billion Dollars: Deconstructing America's Huge Holiday Tree Industry

author:YC Archives
The Economics of Christmas Trees of 10 Billion Dollars: Deconstructing America's Huge Holiday Tree Industry

Christmas is big business these days, and part of it is the multi-billion dollar Christmas tree sales business. Under the huge Christmas tree industry in the United States, there are even two opposing industry organizations: one supports natural Christmas trees, and the other supports artificial Christmas trees.

Where can I find a natural Christmas tree?

There are three ways to get a natural Christmas tree in the United States: First, you can cut one from the national forest yourself. While the permit fee for cutting down trees is only $10 or less, relatively few Americans do so because the government stipulates that trees can only be cut down beyond 200 feet (about 61 meters) of all roads, campgrounds, or recreation areas. The branches and needles of the trees will be destroyed during the shipping process, so the only way to transport large and heavy trees through snow-covered forests is to transport them to a considerable distance.

The second option is to go to a local Christmas tree farm to buy or cut down a Christmas tree. According to the latest data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, there are nearly 3,000 Christmas tree farms across the United States, and about 12 million Christmas trees are sold each year.

The Economics of Christmas Trees of 10 Billion Dollars: Deconstructing America's Huge Holiday Tree Industry

Pictured here is a Norwegian spruce cut down from a national forest park in West Virginia outside the Capitol building in Washington, D.C., on November 17, 2023.

While being a Christmas tree farmer sounds pleasant, it's not very profitable because it takes more than a decade for a Christmas tree to grow to a size big enough to sell. Long lead times combined with changeable and unpredictable weather have forced many farms to close their operations. Between 2014 and 2019, nearly 500 U.S. Christmas tree farms went out of business.

The third way to get a tree is to buy it from a local retailer who imports it. In 2022, the United States imported nearly 3 million natural Christmas trees, most of which came from Canada. In 2014, the U.S. imported only half as many Christmas trees as it does now, and imports have been steadily increasing ever since.

Combined, these three channels will sell about 15 million locally grown or imported natural Christmas trees in the U.S. by 2022.

Some people like to buy trees from non-profit organizations, and this is the case with the Boy Scouts. These non-profit organizations also buy Christmas trees from local Christmas tree farms or importers.

Artificial Christmas tree from China

Artificial Christmas trees are popular among those who don't like the clutter and fuss of natural trees. Artificial Christmas trees are mainly from China, and most of them are made in Yiwu City. In 2022 alone, the United States imported more than 20 million artificial trees.

The Economics of Christmas Trees of 10 Billion Dollars: Deconstructing America's Huge Holiday Tree Industry

The picture shows a Christmas tree lighting ceremony at Rockefeller Center in New York City, USA, on November 29, 2023.

And these artificial trees are becoming more and more popular. In 2014, the U.S. imported 11 million artificial trees, and sold nearly 22 million natural trees, meaning that in 2014, for every artificial tree sold, people bought nearly two natural trees. Ten years later, sales of natural trees had fallen to about 15 million, but imports of artificial trees had exceeded 20 million.

The shift from natural to artificial trees has reduced the number of fires. Natural trees that are not watered will dry up and sometimes even catch fire. In 1980, there were about 850 Christmas tree fires in the United States, injuring 80 people. After 40 years, the number of fires per year has dropped to 180, with only eight people injured.

Why are Christmas trees so expensive?

Some people are taken aback when they see the price of Christmas trees, but the wholesale price of Christmas trees is actually not that high. According to U.S. government statistics last year, wholesalers who imported artificial Christmas trees in whole containers paid an average of $22 per tree. Natural tree importers pay about the same price. In 2022, importers of artificial and natural trees collectively imported more than $500 million in Christmas trees.

Unfortunately, there are currently no official statistics on how much it costs retailers to buy Christmas trees. It is widely believed that artificial Christmas trees are more expensive than natural ones, but since artificial trees have a lifespan of more than one season, it is worth the difference.

The Economics of Christmas Trees of 10 Billion Dollars: Deconstructing America's Huge Holiday Tree Industry

Pictured here are children visiting the Christmas tree outside the Capitol building in Washington, U.S., on December 20, 2023.

According to consumer surveys conducted by two competing industry organizations, artificial and natural trees, people will buy Christmas trees between $80 and $100 in 2022. This means that the price increase for Christmas trees is about 400% to 500%.

Multiplying the $80 to $100 price by the 15 million natural Christmas trees and 20 million artificial Christmas trees sold in 2022 means that Christmas trees are sold at around $3 billion a year, not counting the extra spending on decorations.

Natural, artificial, natural and man-made, or even no Christmas tree at all, just add a touch of joy to the winter celebrations. After all, the best things of the season are free.

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