When a man sits at home, he comes from heaven

Last Friday's large-scale drop in game stocks sparked heated discussions in the market, and comments on the online game "Draft for Comments" flooded the weekend. Amid the controversy, the final trading week of 2023 is also approaching

Text: Zhang Yun

Editor|Guo Nan

Xiao Cai, who has just straightened out his thinking and is about to return to A-shares, ushered in another heavy blow last week (December 18-22).

Xiao Cai, who has frequently encountered the "heavy blows" of A-shares this year, is very careful this time, he began to learn the appearance of a college buddy who trades professionally, and before each transaction, he subconsciously uses probability thinking to think clearly about several questions: what is the probability of profit and loss in the current market state; what are the main areas where the stocks that make and lose money are concentrated; which stocks in these fields are likely to make money the next day; how much can be earned, and how much can be lost.

After such a set of procedures, Xiao Cai did not buy stocks for several days, because the answers to the above questions told him that there was no target in the market, and at the same time, the Shanghai Composite Index 2900 was also briefly broken.

At this point, Xiao Cai suddenly found that this trading system actually allowed his short position to avoid the index breaking below 2900, "Is this the holy grail of legendary investment?"

The magic is not over, after the 2900 is broken, Xiao Cai feels that he can make a move, he wanders around several grassroots stock forums, and looks at the market again, thinking that the market funds are still keen on short dramas and game concepts, and there is a high probability that there will be dramas in this direction. I also remembered what the knife told him, after the trading pattern is determined, do not change and change it at will in the short term, because it will affect the final statistics and results. Since most of the seniors said that the certainty of individual stocks on the daily limit board is the highest, Xiao Cai decided to intervene in the stocks on the daily limit. He picked an anime game stock last Thursday (December 21).

Xiao Cai repeated the previous question again in his mind. What is the probability of profit and loss in the current market state? 2900 has been broken, the volume has been released, and the index is moving back, so the answer to this question is obvious, and the possibility of making a profit at this time is greater than a loss.

What are the main areas where the stocks that make and lose money are concentrated? Recently, the main line has been in the field of short drama games, otherwise the media index will not continue to rise, so the sustainability of this direction is better, the imagination is also higher, stronger than other new concepts, and the formation is more complete - Yuan Long Yatu (002878. SZ) opened not long after the price limit, Shifeng Culture (002862.SZ) was also on the way to anti-nuclear, and topics such as the Dong Yuhui incident and Yuanmeng Star were also hot.

Finally, how much can you earn? On the graph, the low start has a large space above, a small space below, and a very high value rate. Since your own trading system shows that you can buy, don't think about it.

It's the Friday of the winter solstice (December 22), and like all soap operas, if nothing else, there will be an accident at this time. Xiao Cai's carefully selected tickets opened low and went low, and a few days ago, I thought that the trading system of the Holy Grail of investment had failed.

What to do? After the return, the first transaction was educated by the market again. Xiao Cai remembered what Xiaodao said, don't be entangled in the success or failure of a single transaction of "one city and one pool", otherwise confidence will be destroyed, faith will be shaken, and it will be difficult to enforce transaction discipline. Expectations can be adjusted and changed at any time, but trading discipline cannot.

Xiao Cai waited for a while, and cut off the stock with a robotic expressionless face, so as not to be sad, and quickly deleted his choice. At this time, he didn't know that two hours later, he would be extremely glad that this time he seemed to admit compensation.

Near noon, the stock discussion group that had been labeled as a "retail investor" by Xiao Cai suddenly swiped hundreds of discussions, which usually occurs when the market is soaring or plummeting.

Click on it and take a look, everyone is talking about the sharp decline of Tencent and NetEase. Open the social media sites again, and the decline of the two companies has taken the hot spot. In order to strengthen the standardized management of the industry and promote high-quality and sustainable development, the National Press and Publication Administration has drafted the "Measures for the Administration of Online Games (Draft for Solicitation of Comments)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Draft for Solicitation of Comments") for online games, which is now open to the public for comments;

At the opening of the afternoon session, Aofei Entertainment (002292.SZ), which is authorized by the IP of the Yuanmeng Star game, fell straight to the limit, and along with it were dozens of other game stocks, Sanqi Mutual Entertainment (002555.SZ), the largest market capitalization, was pressed on the falling limit by more than a billion orders, and there was no possibility of opening the board at all.

Seeing this scene, Xiao Cai broke out in a cold sweat, and he suddenly understood why Xiao Dao did not pay attention to his request to ask for the six rich codes before, but persuaded himself bitterly that it was more important to first raise trading Xi than anything.

Xiao Cai's behavior of fully respecting market performance and trading discipline this time, although he did not make any money, it made him happier than he made money, at least this is a self-breakthrough. A message popped up by the market software also made him feel very happy:

(Xiao Cai's sell before the fall limit)

In order to thank the brother who slept on the top bunk for his sincere teachings, Xiao Cai planned to use the name of the winter solstice to ask the knife out for a big meal at night, and also to see if the other party could teach him more tricks.

Unexpectedly, Xiaodao refused: I still have to look at U.S. stocks at night, there are also game stocks in U.S. stocks, money never sleeps, and U.S. stocks can be shorted for hedging. Xiao Cai, who does not have an overseas account, obviously still has a cognition of only looking at A-shares. After a whole year of mixing in the A-shares, Xiao Cai gradually accepted that there were many things in this world that he could not participate in and control, so he bought two boxes of dumplings and went home for the holidays by himself.

Seller's institutions urgently interpret the new online game policy

Xiaodao is much busier here, and after the breaking news came out at noon, there were constantly institutions interpreting the impact of the online game "Draft for Comments" on the industry. At the same time, most listed companies have also begun to release news to the outside world, some companies say that there is an impact, and some companies say that the impact is not large, and the attitude is different.

The key points of the institutional interpretation are placed in the context of the issuance of the Consultation Draft. First of all, sellers generally believe that the Consultation Paper for Online Games is a refinement of the new regulations in 2021 rather than a second tightening of supervision. The Interim Measures for the Administration of Online Games issued by the Ministry of Culture in 2010 have been repealed in 2019, and the Central Propaganda Department has not issued new management measures for a long time after becoming a regulatory authority.

Second, the requirements of the edition regulations are clear, which basically has no impact on listed companies that operate in compliance.

Finally, the three detailed provisions of "Article 17 prohibiting compulsory battles", "Article 18 restricting excessive use and high consumption of games", and "Article 27 random selection" are relatively strict, and some institutions believe that "there is a high probability that these three rules have room for adjustment to minimize the impact and forced battles can be avoided through the consent of gamers." There is room for curve adjustment in in-game commercial designs such as daily login and first recharge. There may be some uncertainty in the user recharge limit, but at present, many games have already been soft locked through the commodity limit daily krypton gold online, if the current daily quota + the strength of the manufacturer's autonomy is continued, it will have almost no impact, even if it is tighter, it will only affect a very small number of ultra-high krypton gold games. The random selection method has also been adjusted in recent years, and mainstream games have practices such as 'big guarantee' + publicity probability, which is expected to have little impact. ”

"In addition to the suspension of the two editions, each time the policy is issued is to reshuffle the industry, to standardize and screen the entire industry, the introduction of the policy has left a relatively large room to play, the actual impact is not so pessimistic as everyone imagined. From the perspective of the historical rhythm of landing, it took half a year to a year for the juvenile regulatory policy to be promulgated to land, and it is expected that the requirements of the draft supervision will not be fully implemented until the second half of next year at the earliest. For game manufacturers, it is necessary to be more strict in the game development and release stages, and to do a good job in compliant and legal design and operation, especially for the design of game commercialization. Large manufacturers have done a better job in product compliance and legality, have strong content research and development capabilities, and have strong ability to adapt to policy changes, so they may be relatively less affected. "An institution's overseas interpretation is carried out.

Some institutions also said that last Friday's market performance was a panic brought about by the muscle memory of the policy in 2021, and investors who calmed down should be able to find that the driving factors behind the introduction of the two new policies are completely different, and the industry's leading companies have been wrongly killed.

On December 23, the person in charge of the National Press and Publication Administration made a statement saying that the "Draft for Comments" is based on ensuring and promoting the prosperity and healthy development of the online game industry, and that "the National Press and Publication Administration will carefully study the concerns and opinions raised by all parties on Articles 17, 18 and some other contents of the Draft for Comments, and will further revise and improve it on the basis of continuing to listen to the opinions of relevant departments, enterprises, users and other parties."

Institutional interpretation on the evening of the 22nd had a certain calming impact on the game stocks in the U.S. stocks, and NetEase's U.S. stock prices rebounded after opening low, but the magnitude was not high. The knife that originally planned to short hedge the A-share drop limit did not get any bargain.

On December 25, both the Hong Kong stock market and the U.S. stock market were on Christmas holiday, so the trend of A-shares on the 25th was more critical. Over the weekend, the official statement tended to ease, and some market sources said that the market performance on Friday was not the original intention of the relevant departments, and there is still room for revision of the draft.

In addition to the discussion of the "Consultation Draft" among investors over the weekend, the situation in the Red Sea is also fermenting. GF Machinery explained that "the three major elements of the shipbuilding industry, such as fundamentals, restructuring and prosperity, have changed recently, bringing about a strong performance of the stock price." In terms of fundamentals, ship prices continue to rise. The data shows that the current ship price is the highest monthly position since the last round of peak in October 2008, reflecting the current supply and demand relationship.

In terms of prosperity, benefiting from the Red Sea time, ships passing through the Gulf of Aden in the past 4 days have decreased by 43% compared with the beginning of this month, and the decline in containers is the most obvious, about 82%, and freight rates on some routes have begun to rise.

In terms of restructuring, China Heavy Industry (601989. SH) has been subject to administrative penalties, and GF expects the restructuring to be imminent.

Last week, new energy track stocks also ushered in a rebound, the main catalytic event was that the stock price of the U.S. stock photovoltaic storage company rose sharply for many days, and the domestic and foreign demand data for the third quarter were released one after another, which was better than expected.

The last weekly line of 2023

Since the index fell below 2900, the situation of the A-share market last week was naturally unbearable to look directly - it continued to rank at the bottom of the world's major market indexes.

(Last week's weekly gains and losses of major global indices)

Northbound continued to be in a net outflow without exception, with a net outflow of 2.236 billion yuan for the week.

(Last week's net buying data of northbound funds)

There is no obvious profitable trading style in the market, and small-cap dual-cut stocks have fallen sharply.

(Wind Market Style Index Weekly Change)

In 2023, the penultimate all-A weekly line will close in the negative, the trading volume will shrink, and the weekly line of A shares has been in the negative for five consecutive years.

(Wind All A Index Weekly Chart)

The volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen in the whole week has shrunk in the first half of the week, and the trading volume has improved in the second half of the week, but it cannot be said that the volume has increased.

(Last week's CSI energy trend)

In terms of industries, the media industry, which "returned to the light" at the end of the year, fell by 11.12% last week, and the computer industry fell sharply. The real estate and retail sectors, which have been in decline for a whole year, continue to fall. Power equipment (new energy track stocks), which has also fallen for a whole year, has stabilized.

(Shenwan Level 1 Industry Index)

In terms of individual stocks, stocks on the Beijing Stock Exchange continue to occupy half of the bull stock list, and the top two are the new stocks of the Beijing Stock Exchange. The characteristics of the stocks on the main board are mainly PEEK (polyetheretherketone) concept stocks. PEEK is a new material for humanized robots, according to the analysis of the Northeast Securities manufacturing industry, the material is nicknamed "the king of plastics", some of the performance is better than metal, and can be used to manufacture bionic robot shells, bodies, transmission gears and other fields.

(Top 10 bull stocks last week)

The stocks that have lost money are concentrated in ST stocks, popular stocks that rose high last week, and new stocks on the main board.

(Top 10 bear stocks last week)

Although from macro to micro, the performance of the A-share market last week was not satisfactory, and the New Year's Eve demon stocks that people were expecting for weeks did not appear, but next week is the last trading week of 2023. The data shows that the weekly line of the Wind All A Index in the last week of the past three years is a positive line. The research of CITIC Strategy also shows that in the past four years, the average return of public heavy stocks in the last five trading days of each year has been positive.