The aviation industry is accelerating the adoption of alternative fuels, but there are still huge bottlenecks in production capacity

(Wang Xiaoyu photography)

China Times (www.chinatimes.net.cn) reporter Wang Xiaoyu reports from Beijing

With a number of international organizations meeting on specific agendas and industry organizations coming together to advance and reach a series of agreements, the decarbonization of the aviation industry has become a landmark event for the industry in the coming decades. As the target is getting closer, both airlines and aircraft manufacturers are starting to accelerate their pace and seek ways to reduce emissions through multiple channels.

At present, the most realistic sustainable aviation fuel (hereinafter referred to as "SAF") in terms of technical and operational feasibility will replace traditional fossil fuels, and it is not surprising that it will become one of the main ways for the aviation industry to achieve its goals, but compared with the application links that have long been a consensus, a series of issues such as production capacity and the resulting costs will still be the main issues that the whole industry needs to solve urgently at present and in the future.

Full action

Until the decarbonization target has actually become a concrete timetable, despite the industry's positive intentions and measures, the air transport industry, which has been dominated by traditional fuels for decades, is more like adding some light to its CSR reporting on the issue, and there is not much sense of urgency.

But now everything has changed radically. The following year, the International Aviation Organization (ICAO) led all Member States to reach consensus and sign an agreement on decarbonization at the 2021 International Air Transport Association (IATA) Annual General Assembly, which led all Member States to reach consensus and sign an agreement on decarbonization. This also means that for the aviation industry, there is not much time left before the "ruling day".

Especially considering that the commercial aviation industry has not actually changed much in terms of technical architecture since its inception, and has always been the core driving force of this huge industry with traditional aviation kerosene, and considering the current stage of the industry's technological development and the probability of possible revolutionary changes in the energy sector, SAF can almost be said to be one of the few options for the current aviation industry to achieve its decarbonization goals.

Because of this, industries and enterprises that have seen the situation clearly have significantly accelerated their actions and layouts in this field in the past two years. On December 19, Air France-KLM, the world's first airline to use SAF, announced its latest plan to use blended SAF to support global SAF production capacity building, announcing that it will achieve the goal of using blended SAF and supporting global SAF production capacity building through three levers: fleet renewal, sustainable aviation fuel, and other actions.

Air France-KLM said it will use around 80,000 tonnes of SAF in 2023, nearly double its 2022 use. At the same time, the company also secures future SAF supply by signing offtake agreements and memorandums of understanding with global SAF suppliers, as well as investing directly in SAF production capacity, to meet the target of at least 10% blending by 2030.

On November 28, a British Virgin Atlantic Boeing 787 completed a London-New York route flight using 100% SAF fuel. It is also the world's first 100% SAF transatlantic flight operated by a commercial airline.

For its part, Rolls-Royce, the engine manufacturer that powers the aircraft, said the flight proved that SAF is a safe alternative to fossil aviation fuel and is compatible with today's engines, aircraft and fuel infrastructure. Rolls-Royce also said that all of its civil aircraft engines in production have completed compatibility tests with 100% SAF.

And on November 30, Dubai-based Emirates Airlines conducted a "100% SAF" A380 demonstration flight using an Airbus A380 airliner. During the flight, one of the A380's four engines was powered entirely by SAF fuel, a move that, according to Emirates, was "a more sustainable option to demonstrate the potential of SAF as a 'ready-to-use' alternative to jet fuel technology and chemistry." ”

Compared to conventional jet fuels, SAF can reduce carbon emissions by up to 85% over its life cycle. Currently, the blending cap of SAF in commercial flight engines is 50%.

Although aircraft manufacturers are exploring ways to meet the needs of decarbonization goals for future commercial aircraft according to the "multi-legged walk" model, in the current environment, more and more can only choose to promote the capacity improvement of the SAF industry chain to respond.

Boeing announced in November an initiative with the U.S. government to promote the development and use of SAF within Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) member states. The U.S. Department of Transportation and the Federal Aviation Administration will work with Boeing to sponsor the project in the APEC Transportation Working Group. The collaboration includes identifying the sources of sustainable raw materials for SAF, analyzing new ways to optimize SAF production, and leveraging existing industries and infrastructure for SAF production.

Another aircraft giant, Airbus Europe, plans to certify all its aircraft to 100% sustainable aviation fuel by 2030. At the same time, in terms of promoting the development of related industries, Airbus has also carried out many localized cooperation in different regional markets, such as the recent signing of a letter of intent with the State Power Investment Corporation (hereinafter referred to as "") in Beijing, the two sides will try to cooperate in the new technology, production, certification and promotion of sustainable aviation fuel ("SAF fuel") in the whole chain of key links, such as building a SAF fuel industry chain that meets international standards and has sustainable development capabilities. The two parties will also actively explore multi-dimensional innovative applications in the field of renewable energy. Airbus aims to achieve 100% renewable energy power at all of its campuses in China by 2030.

Bottlenecks

The industry is taking a positive stance and action towards SAF, but it can't avoid one of the biggest issues facing this field today: capacity.

In 2023, SAF production exceeded 600 million litres (500,000 tonnes), double the 300 million litres (250,000 tonnes) produced in 2022, according to data released by IATA at the Global Media Day in December. In 2024, SAF production is expected to triple to 1.875 billion litres (1.5 million tonnes), accounting for 0.53% of jet fuel demand and 6% of renewable fuel capacity.

But one problem is that SAF production accounts for a small percentage of total renewable fuels, largely due to the allocation of new capacity coming online in 2023 to other renewable fuels.

"The doubling of SAF production in 2023 is encouraging, and production is expected to triple in 2024. But even with this considerable growth, the proportion of SAF produced as part of all renewable fuel production has only grown from 3% this year to 6% in 2024, resulting in a low supply of SAF and high prices. The aviation industry needs between 25% and 30% of SAF renewable fuel production. Only then will the aviation industry be on track to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. Until we reach the production ratio, we will continue to miss out on a huge opportunity to decarbonize aviation. However, a change in government policy will bring about a turnaround. Governments must prioritize policies that encourage the expansion of SAF production and diversify from locally available feedstocks. IATA President Willie Walsh told global media, including China Times, during the media conference.

The Third Conference on Alternative Fuels for Aviation (CAAF/3), hosted by ICAO, agreed on a global framework to promote SAF production in all regions and reduce the carbon intensity of fuels used in international aviation by 5% by 2030. To reach this level, about 17.5 billion litres (14 million tonnes) of SAF would need to be produced.

In the eyes of IATA, the crux of the problem is not demand, as all SAF currently produced has been purchased and used. SAF added $756 million to high fuel bills in 2023, the data showed. At least 43 airlines have already committed to using around 16.25 billion litres (13 million tonnes) of SAF by 2030, with more agreements announced regularly.

A person in charge of promoting related affairs of a large state-owned airline with a global network layout said frankly when communicating with a reporter from the China Times, " Airlines have done their best to cooperate with the SAF problem, but another problem caused by the current scarcity of production capacity is the high price, if this situation continues to be maintained, airlines will bring a heavy cost burden to expand the use of SAF, this problem is currently a difficult cycle to solve, so it is necessary to promote production capacity through policies and regulations, or first through subsidies and other ways to let airlines not bear too much pressure for a series of ways to find solutions. ”

"Investors often prefer traditional oil and gas companies because of the higher profits, which is understandable. Marie Owen Thomsen, IATA's senior vice president and chief economist for sustainability, told the media, including the China Times, at a media briefing in early December: "ESG ratings are only intervening on the margins, and a lot of people are talking about the need to invest in sustainable technologies for the aviation industry, but at the moment it seems that the investment is far from enough." ”

IATA expects to produce more than 78 billion litres (63 million tonnes) of renewable fuels in 2029, but also says governments must develop a policy framework that incentivizes renewable fuel producers to allocate 25%-30% of their production to SAF in order to meet the targets agreed at the 3rd Aviation Alternative Fuels Conference, existing regional and national policies, and the commitments of airlines.

Over the next five years, about 85% of SAF facilities will use hydroprocessing (HEFA) production technology, which relies on inedible animal fats (animal fats used to make candles or soaps), waste cooking oils, and industrial fats and fats as feedstocks, according to IATA. Diversify SAF production by increasing SAF production through certified pathways, particularly alcohol-based jet coal (AtJ) and Fischer-Tropsch synthesis (FT) using biological/agricultural wastes and residues.

IATA believes that effective incentives for SAF production should focus on areas such as accelerating investment in SAF by traditional oil companies, ensuring that renewable fuel production incentives achieve adequate SAF production, and stakeholders should focus on diversifying feedstock and SAF production areas. Mary Owen Thomson, in an exchange with the media, including this reporter, even bluntly said: "There are solutions to replace traditional fossil fuels, but there is no solution to replace the air transport industry." ”