The next Su Xichang is coming?

In the recently released "Ningbo Rail Transit Network Plan (2021-2035)", 4 of the 16 rail transit routes planned in Ningbo long-term involve Shaoxing.

It is worth noting that in April 2022, the main line of Shaoxing Metro Line 1 was put into operation. According to the data released by Shaoxing Rail Transit Group, in the past year, Shaoxing Metro Line 1 has transported a total of 32,894,200 passengers, of which Hangzhou-Shaoxing cross-city passengers accounted for 26.24%.

Hangzhou is more than 40 kilometers away from Shaoxing, and it is understandable to build a subway line, but Ningbo, which is more than 100 kilometers away from Shaoxing, why did it also start planning to build the subway to Shaoxing?

Ningbo cityscape / picture insect creativity

From "siphoning" to "wooing"

In Zhejiang, the two sub-provincial cities of Hangzhou and Ningbo are the "twin stars" of economic development.

In 2022, Hangzhou's GDP will be about 1.87 trillion yuan, Ningbo's GDP will be 1.58 trillion yuan, and the economic volume of the two cities will rank first and second in Zhejiang Province respectively, while Shaoxing's GDP will be 735.1 billion yuan, ranking fourth in the province.

"Small and medium-sized cities in the vicinity of large cities may face both the 'siphon' and 'spillover' effects of the surrounding large cities. With the popularization of convenient means of transportation such as high-speed rail, many small and medium-sized cities with average economic size are facing the fate of being 'siphoned'. Niu Fengrui, a researcher in regional economics at the Institute of Sociology of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told China News Weekly.

Located between the two economically strong cities, Shaoxing has inevitably been "siphoned" for many years. Until 2016, Shaoxing's GDP growth rate was still at the bottom of the province.

However, the situation is changing. For example, in 2021 and 2022, Shaoxing's economic growth rate will be 8.7% and 4.4% respectively, 0.2 and 1.3 percentage points higher than that of the province, respectively, and the recovery momentum is obvious. In the first three quarters of this year, Shaoxing's GDP growth rate was 7.8%, 1.5 percentage points higher than that of the province.

In 2023, the major research group of the Shaoxing Federation of Social Sciences released the "Research on the Path of Shaoxing to Play the "Golden Flat Dan" in the Integration of Hangzhou, Shaoxing and Ningbo" (hereinafter referred to as the "Research"). Hangzhou, Shaoxing is the abbreviation of Hangzhou, Shaoxing and Ningbo.

The study shows that since 2018 (the time when the integration of Hangzhou, Shaoxing and Ningbo was proposed), Hangzhou's investment in Shaoxing (10.35 billion yuan) has been greater than Shanghai's investment in Shaoxing (7.78 billion yuan). Especially after 2018, Shaoxing has received the fastest growth in investment in scientific research, technical services and financial services from Hangzhou-Ningbo enterprises, and the industrial relationship has increased rapidly. For example, the index of the level of connection between scientific research and technical services in Shaoxing and Hangzhou rose from 0.14 to 0.28. In addition, the degree of relevance between Hangzhou's advantageous industry, software and information technology services, and Shaoxing is also rising.

According to the above-mentioned "study", it can be seen from the cross-city investment data that Shaoxing has passed the stage of being "siphoned" by Hangzhou and Ningbo.

The transformation from "siphoning" to radiation is closely related to the continuous improvement of the understanding of integration in the three cities of Hangzhou, Shaoxing and Ningbo.

The New Economic Development Research Center of the Yangtze River Delta Research Institute of Tsinghua University in Zhejiang Province has conducted a special investigation on the topic of "A Tale of Two Cities" in Hangzhou and Ningbo. The data shows that there is still a big gap between the proportion of industrial mutual investment between Hangzhou and Ningbo compared with Guangzhou and Shenzhen, another pair of famous "twin star" cities in China.

Local official media in Shaoxing pointed out that Hangzhou's radiation radius is basically in the area of Zhuji in Shaoxing, while the radiation radius of Ningbo is in the area of Shangyu, Xinchang and Shengzhou in Shaoxing, and there is no obvious overlap between the two. Leaving Shaoxing, a well-connected link, Hangzhou and Ningbo are "lonely cities", which are far from the "Tale of Two Cities".

As early as 2018, the Shaoxing Municipal Party Committee and the Municipal Government jointly issued the Shaoxing Action Plan for the Integrated Development of Hangzhou, Shaoxing and Ningbo (2018-2020), focusing on the strategic deployment of Hangzhou-Shaoxing-Ningbo integration, focusing on the four major actions of comprehensive transportation network, public service co-cityization, industrial platform coordination, and urban development integration, and clarifying a number of key tasks.

By 2020, Zhejiang issued the "Hangzhou-Shaoyong Integrated Development Implementation Plan" at the provincial level to fully promote the formation of an integrated development pattern of infrastructure interconnection, smooth flow of innovative elements, and sharing of public service quality among the three cities.

In the view of Xu Jianfeng, deputy director of the Economic Research Institute of the Zhejiang Academy of Social Sciences, Shaoxing, due to its unique geographical location, put forward the strategy of "integrating Hangzhou and Ningbo", and has received initial results under the integration strategy of Hangzhou, Shaoxing and Ningbo. Regardless of the investment or the planning observation of the construction of the subway, the two cities of Hangzhou and Ningbo are also deliberately "wooing" Shaoxing to achieve integrated development.

The next "Su Xi Chang"?

In the eyes of many industry insiders, there is still more room to play in the current integration of Hangzhou, Shaoyong and Ningbo.

Because they are in the same "Yangtze River Delta" region, the outside world often benchmarks "Hangshaoyong" and "Suzhou-Xichang".

In 2022, the GDP of Suzhou, Wuxi, and Changzhou will be 2.4 trillion yuan, 1.48 trillion yuan, and 955 billion yuan respectively, with a total of about 4.85 trillion yuan, about 700 billion yuan more than that of Hangzhou, Shaoyong, and Ningbo. The integration of the three cities of "Suzhou, Xichang and Changzhou" is also in full swing. In recent years, new energy vehicles have become a "tuyere" industry, and in this emerging industry, the three cities of "Suzhou, Xichang" have worked closely together to form an industrial chain that benefits together.

Compared with "Su Xichang", in the eyes of many industry insiders, there is still more room to play in the current integration of "Hangzhou, Shaoyong and Ningbo".

The above-mentioned "study" also shows that the industrial correlation between Shaoxing and Hangzhou is high and the improvement rate is fast, but the industrial correlation with Ningbo is low. Shaoxing, which is in the middle position, should better play the role of a bridge and link, so that it can develop in tandem with the Hangzhou-Ningbo industry, and then promote the integration of Hangzhou-Shaoxing-Ningbo.

Xu Jianfeng believes that Hangzhou, Ningbo and Shaoxing have obvious complementarity in the industry, and there is still more room for development in the future. He said, "For example, whether it is textiles and garments, petrochemicals, or new materials, Ningbo and Shaoxing have a large space for industrial complementarity." ”

At present, Shaoxing is focusing on accelerating the return to the city's comprehensive economic strength of the national "top 30" goal, on the one hand, vigorously transform and upgrade the three traditional industries of textile, chemical industry and metal processing, and enhance the development of the two historical classic industries of rice wine and pearls; on the other hand, it is cultivating and expanding the four emerging industries of electronic information, high-end equipment, modern medicine and new materials, and make every effort to build an advanced intelligent manufacturing base in Shaoxing.

Ningbo is an important advanced manufacturing base in China, the largest petrochemical production base and new material base in China, and one of the three major garment industry bases in China. At present, Ningbo is vigorously promoting the construction of "246" industrial clusters, namely 2 trillion-yuan industrial clusters - green petrochemical and automobile manufacturing, 4 500 billion yuan industrial clusters - high-end equipment, new materials, electronic information, software and emerging services, and 6 100 billion yuan industrial clusters - key basic parts (components), smart home appliances, fashion textiles and garments, biomedicine, stationery and sports supplies, energy conservation and environmental protection industries, which also have a certain degree of overlap with Shaoxing's industrial planning. This also provides the possibility for the two sides to work together to build a world-class manufacturing industry cluster.

It is worth noting that Ningbo has the world's top ten in cargo throughput and the top three in the world in terms of container throughput, which can become an important outlet for "Made in Shaoxing".

On the other hand, from the perspective of Shaoxing, its administrative level is only an ordinary prefecture-level city, and there are only four undergraduate colleges including Shaoxing University of Arts and Sciences. Especially in recent years, Shaoxing has focused on the development of pharmaceutical industrial parks, and the demand for innovative resources in such emerging industries has become more urgent. Xu Jianfeng analyzed.

From this point of view, Ningbo has a number of innovation platforms such as the Ningbo Institute of Materials of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Ningbo Branch of the China Academy of Ordnance Sciences, and is a national independent innovation demonstration zone. Hangzhou not only has many scientific research institutes, but also has Zhejiang University and other well-known universities in the country.

In January this year, the work report of the Zhejiang Provincial Government proposed to "accelerate the promotion of the Hangzhou-Shaoxing-Ningbo Integration Demonstration Zone". This "demonstration area" requires the integration and linkage of major platforms. This year, Shaoxing will join hands with Ningbo to build an intelligent manufacturing application demonstration base.

"Judging from the current industrial structure and future development potential, Hangzhou, Shaoyong, as an important focus of the integration of the Yangtze River Delta, can fully benchmark its development against 'Suzhou-Xichang', and its economic volume and influence will continue to approach Suzhou-Xichang. Niu Fengrui analyzed.

Author: Zhao Yue

Editor: Sun Xiaobo