Trading must-read: U.S. stocks closed high and high stocks rose, the central bank's latest statement, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized humanoid robots three times in half a year, and the policy orientation became clearer

Reporter: Yang Jian Editor: Peng Shuiping

(1) Important market news

1. The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed higher, with the Nasdaq up 1.26%, the S&P 500 up 1.03%, and the Dow up 0.87%. Large technology stocks rose, Tesla rose about 3%, Nvidia, Google, Amazon, Meta rose more than 1%, Netflix and Microsoft rose slightly. Micron Technology rose more than 8%, the biggest increase since March 2022. Chinese concept stocks rose, and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 3.16%. JD.com rose nearly 6%, Vipshop, Baidu, and Bilibili rose more than 5%, NIO rose more than 4%, Alibaba, Tencent Music rose more than 3%, and Xpeng Motors rose more than 1%.

2. The settlement price of international crude oil futures fell slightly. WTI crude oil futures for February settlement at $73.89 a barrel, down 0.44%. Brent crude oil futures for February delivery closed down $0.31, or 0.39%, at $79.7 a barrel. Major European stock indexes collectively closed down, with Germany's DAX 30 down 0.3%, Britain's FTSE 100 down 0.29%, France's CAC 40 down 0.16%, and Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.22%.

(2) Macro news

1. Recently, Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People's Bank of China, presided over a forum of experts on the economic and financial situation to study the current economic and financial situation and listen to relevant opinions and suggestions. Everyone believes that since the beginning of this year, a series of policy measures to expand domestic demand, boost confidence, and prevent and control risks have been introduced one after another, and the policy effect has gradually emerged, the financial support for the real economy has been stable, and the overall economic recovery has improved. Pan Gongsheng said that the People's Bank of China will maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity, match the scale of social financing and money supply with the expected targets of economic growth and price levels, maintain reasonable credit growth, stable rhythm, and structural optimization, and create a good monetary and financial environment for the sustained economic recovery.

(3) Institutional perspectives

Industrial Securities: Break the game and advance core assets

1. Looking forward to 2024, we believe that overseas relaxation will drive the return of foreign investment, the domestic economy will stand at a new starting point, and the repair of high-quality faucets will drive the return of the market's money-making effect and drive the dumbbell-shaped allocation to rebalance. Therefore, we prefer style rebalancing, and high-quality leading assets currently have high investment value in terms of both win rate and odds. However, it is worth noting that in the era of high-quality economic development, core assets should be new kinetic energy leaders that are not lying flat and unwilling to be mediocre, and it is best to break out of the world overseas. To distinguish between them, we define them as "advanced core assets". "Advanced core assets" are expected to become the winners and losers to break the market dilemma in the past few years and get out of the situation. See the report for details.

2. In 2024, overseas relaxation will drive the return of foreign capital, the domestic economy will stand at a new starting point, and the repair of high-quality faucets will drive the return of the market's money-making effect and drive the dumbbell-shaped allocation to rebalance. Therefore, in 2024, we are more inclined to rebalance the style, and high-quality leading assets now have high investment value in terms of winning rate and odds. When it comes to the leader, the first reaction of many investors is still the core assets represented by the "Mao Index" and "Ning Portfolio". But in fact, the internal structure of core assets is already undergoing qualitative changes. In the era of high-quality economic development, the core assets should be the new kinetic energy leaders that are not lying flat and unwilling to be mediocre, and it is best to break out of the world overseas. To distinguish between them, we define them as "advanced core assets". "Advanced core assets" are expected to become the winners and losers to break the market dilemma in the past few years and get out of the situation.

3. Advanced core assets: not lying flat and unwilling to be mediocre, representing China's most competitive new kinetic energy leader. At present, the economy is being driven by traditional kinetic energy to driven by new kinetic energy, and new kinetic energy is the field with the broadest growth space in the future. Taking the CSI 300 as an example, the leaders in different industries have begun to differentiate significantly, even though the CSI 300 is still falling this year, there are still nearly 50 stocks that have risen by more than 20%, such as high-end manufacturing, TMT in the leading companies.

4. Looking for novelty, new momentum and new structural highlights in the dull aggregate have become an important support for the economy. In the future, it is these new economic drivers and bright spots that are expected to become the breakthrough in the context of the slowdown of traditional momentum. If you don't buy a house, many things will become very "cheap", and there is huge room for residents to release their consumption potential in the future. At the same time, the proportion of new drivers and the new economy in GDP has steadily increased, and has become an important driving force for economic growth. The growth rate of China's new economic development momentum index (mainly three new) has remained at 25% to 35% in recent years, much higher than the GDP growth rate, and the proportion of the three new economies in GDP has also steadily increased to 17.4%. The expansion of new drivers is directly mapped to the investment opportunities in the stock market, referring to overseas economies, and the stock market structure after economic transformation is biased towards new drivers of economic growth.

5. How to find advanced core assets?

The first is to take advantage of the trend and focus on the industrial direction supported by policies. In recent years, policy care and support for high-end manufacturing, digital economy, and consumption have been continuously strengthened, and policies such as new industrialization, robotics, digital China, data elements, security and controllability, and consumption expansion have been intensive, promoting high-quality economic development.

Second, considering that real estate is still a drag on the economy, we should look for a direction that is "decoupled" from real estate but has elastic demand. According to the correlation between the revenue of each industry and real estate investment, the correlation between each industry and real estate is located, and in the context of the growth rate of real estate investment next year is still under pressure, look for industries with low correlation with real estate investment and are expected to continue to improve next year

The third is to look for leading enterprises that have global competitiveness. At present, many industries such as new energy industry, automobile industry, consumer electronics, Internet, home appliances, and liquor in mainland China are not only China's core assets, but also have grown into leading enterprises with global competitiveness. Even from the perspective of global asset allocation, these assets are expected to be favored by global funds.

(4) Industry nuggets

1. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized humanoid robots three times in half a year, and the policy orientation became clearer. On December 21, the National Conference on Industry and Information Technology was held in Beijing. The meeting emphasized that in 2024, an action plan for future industrial development should be introduced, aiming at humanoid robots, quantum information and other industries; in 2024, it is necessary to accelerate the layout of intelligent computing facilities and strengthen 6G pre-research;In September 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that the unveiling of the list will mainly focus on the four key directions of the metaverse, humanoid robots, brain-computer interfaces, and general artificial intelligence;In November 2023, the "Guiding Opinions on the Innovation and Development of Humanoid Robots" will be issued, and the humanoid robots will be positioned following computers, smartphones, The subversive products after the new energy vehicles, the introduction of industrial action plans for humanoid robots and other industries has played a leading role in the development of the industry, which is good for domestic industrial chain companies, and related concept stocks include Hanwei Technology, Silk Road Vision, Hengxin Oriental, etc.

In addition, according to data released by TrendForce, the total revenue of the DRAM industry in the third quarter of 2023 reached 13.48 billion US dollars, with a quarterly growth rate of about 18.0%, and the original factory price increase in the fourth quarter was clear, and the DRAM contract price is expected to increase by about 13~18%; NAND Flash shipments increased by 3% quarter-on-quarter, and overall consolidated revenue reached $9.229 billion, an increase of about 2.9% quarter-on-quarter. Mobile phones, PCs, and servers are the main application markets for memory chips, and the recovery of terminals is an important reason for the improvement of memory chips. Memory chips are important components of semiconductor products, with the clear growth of terminal demand and the effective implementation of destocking, memory chips or ushered in a round of price increases, and the entire semiconductor industry may be expected to usher in the dawn of the upward cycle. Related concept stocks include Langdi Group, Dinglong Shares, Langke Technology, etc.

3. According to media sources, Apple recently published a paper introducing a method that can run LLM (large language model) on devices that can exceed the available DRAM capacity. LLM-intensive computational and memory requirements are a challenge for DRAM capacity, and the paper builds a flash-based inference cost model that will be optimized in two key areas: reducing the amount of data transferred from flash memory and reading more blocks of data more smoothly. This means that this groundbreaking study expands the applicability and accessibility of LLMs, and Apple's plans to integrate generative AI into iOS18 may be accelerated. Generative AI has changed the way we interact, and domestic and foreign mobile phone manufacturers, including Samsung, Xiaomi, Honor, etc., have deployed generative AI on mobile phones, and the integration of large models into mobile phones is the general trend. The combination of smart phones and AI is expected to become a new selling point, and the demand for high-end chips such as computing power continues to grow, which is expected to drive the expansion of related market space. Concept stocks include $ Lixin Micro, Lianchuang Electronics, etc.

National Business Daily