When Japan was busy arching the fire in the South China Sea, Prime Minister Kishida was riddled with scandals, and the cabinet reshuffle was still difficult to calm the public anger, and finally realized the consequences of offending China, but it was too late, and the approval rating fell below the 20% warning line, and Fumio Kishida may become the worst prime minister in Japanese history.
Since taking office, Fumio Kishida has largely continued the previous administration's China policy model, and although there are certain measures to control the Sino-Japanese dispute, the audience has been preparing for a long-term confrontation with China. On December 17, at the Japan-ASEAN Extraordinary Summit, Fumio Kishida said that a free and open international order based on the rule of law is facing serious challenges, and he hopes to have a frank discussion with his ASEAN friends.
The Japanese people were not concerned about the dangerous policy direction of the authorities at first, but as the hidden danger of Japan's economic crisis during Kishida's tenure was detonated, the Kishida cabinet, which had ripped off the last fig leaf, finally could not sit still.
The Japanese media "Mainichi Shimbun" reported that since June this year, the approval rating of Kishida's cabinet has been declining, breaking through the "resignation warning line" of 20% in half a year, and at the same time, the opposition rate has risen to 79%, the highest level since the media launched regular polls in 1947.
Japan's economy has suffered a serious downturn under Kishida's leadership, and the Liberal Democratic Party has also been exposed at this sensitive time in a corruption scandal related to Kishida, although it is not yet possible to convict the current prime minister, but relevant evidence shows that Kishida has repeatedly embezzled large amounts of election funds, used legal loopholes to hide, withheld election funds, and is suspected of violating the "Election Law".
This kind of thing is not a big deal in normal times, in countries with a "democratic election" system, politicians mobilize supporters to donate money to their own campaigns, part of the funds are invested in elections, events, bribe parliamentarians, and the other part of the funds are used as pocket money for themselves, this is a very common thing that everyone is doing, and the part exposed on the amount of corruption is only 2 million yen, which is not worth mentioning to a member of Kishida's level, if he is really only greedy for such a little money, it can be said that he is very clean compared to the late Shinzo Abe.
But at present, Kishida has been criticized by all sides because of his policy platform, and everyone is worried that there is no good excuse to buckle his hat, and this scandal has naturally become a tool for criticism from all sides.
Due to the impact of international food security, energy crisis and other issues, coupled with the recent huge depreciation of the yen, all kinds of resources, commodities are highly dependent on imports of Japan's domestic prices soaring, Kishida authorities have come up with many measures to help enterprises, and also explicitly require Japanese companies to raise salaries for employees, but neither the symptoms nor the root cause, in desperation, the Kishida authorities have to greatly increase leverage, the corporate sector, the residential sector multi-pronged, but from the results even make people wonder whether so many measures have made the government statements look better! Because Japan's nominal GDP is likely to be surpassed by Germany in 2023.
However, it is difficult to say how good the current economic situation is, Germany is also facing various hidden dangers, rising commodity prices, and the geopolitical crisis brought about by the Russian-Ukrainian war, and the situation is even worse than Japan, so why can Germany barely maintain its growth momentum? A very important reason is inseparable from Sino-German trade.
Don't look at von der Leyen's frequent criticism of the Sino-European trade surplus on the Chinese side, this is just a trick, because China has a high degree of market development in Europe, and it is open to holdings, and it is engaged in joint ventures, this model has greatly reduced the pressure on European companies to go overseas to China to operate, and also made its country similar to obtain payment transfers, and European countries and Germany can barely maintain their old advantages in some fields such as chemicals through similar cooperation.
Therefore, the Kishida cabinet, which is now in deep crisis, has finally woken up to the fact that it is still necessary to pursue a balancing strategy between China and the United States, and it cannot be said that it is too hard to work too the United States, otherwise it will be thankless to work hard.
Recently, Fumio Kishida attended the Japan-ASEAN Special Summit, and he was careful not to mention China and Russia in his words and deeds, but focused on "maritime security in the South China Sea" and "automotive cooperation".
Kishida's words still hinted at something, "a free and open international order based on the rule of law is facing serious challenges."
From whom is the threat and challenge to the free and open international order? There must be different opinions on this point, for example, China has always believed that the United States has engaged in the Cold War model in its China policy in recent years, which has brought a threat to the global development of the international economy, 2016-2017 The first half of Trump's term was the peak of globalization, and the trade volume between the major economies was generally growing at that time, but after a few years, although the global production division system still exists on the surface, many details of the international trade pattern have been very different, and the United States' direct import trade with China has shrunk significantly compared with six years ago, and Sino-Japanese trade is also facing a similar dilemma, lacking new growth pointsIt is not easy to maintain the current scale.
However, when Kishida said that the international order is facing challenges, it is certainly impossible to say that the United States is bad, and his words are full of accusations against China, but Kishida, who has suffered losses before, is now more tactful and low-key in his speech and behavior, and the joint statement between Japan and ASEAN is an example of this.
The statement said: The cooperation between Japan and ASEAN aims to build a world that adheres to the principles of democracy, the rule of law and respect for human rights, and promotes the establishment of an Indo-Pacific region based on the principles of freedom and openness.
Although it did not directly name anyone, this set of speech templates, saying that it is a joint statement between the United States and ASEAN, is not at all contrary to harmony, and what democracy, rule of law, and respect for human rights are all banners that the United States usually raises, and the concept of "Indo-Pacific" is directly aimed at China.
Fumio Kishida may not want to name China and offer courtesy to his US masters, but everyone knows very well what kind of attitude ASEAN has now, and it is not a few words that can be used as cannon fodder for the United States and Japan! Kishida will take the lead in promoting cooperation with ASEAN and engage in influence hedging will not have any good results; the beginning of the 21 st century is still an era of economic development, and there is a question mark over whether Kishida can still be prime minister if Japan's economy is one year short.