Ultra-low interest rates below 2% appear at the end of the year, and bank loans are fancy "grabbing customers"

Towards the end of the year, the bank lending market is back in flames. Recently, Shell financial reporters learned from a number of banks that the current interest rates on various types of bank loans have fallen again, and the interest rates of some loan products of some banks have even entered the "1 era".

"In the fourth quarter of this year, the interest rates on various types of loans have been very low, and it has occurred from time to time that banks have lowered prices to grab customers. A staff member of a joint-stock bank in Beijing told the Shell Financial Reporter that in December of previous years, it would be a "good start" reserve project at the beginning of the second year and slow down the approval speed, but at the end of this year, the bank's strategy is to "lend as much as possible" and lend quickly.

Some industry insiders told the Shell financial reporter that although the current interest rate of some banks' loan products has dropped to below 2%, which is inverted with the deposit interest rate, the number of customers involved is relatively small. Therefore, lending rates below 2% will not become the mainstream interest rate level.

Another person in the banking industry pointed out that the current effective market demand still needs to be further repaired. However, with the promotion of economic stability and continuous recovery, it is expected that the marginal pricing of bank loans will not continue to decline sharply next year.

The interest rate of consumer loans can be reduced to as low as 1.1%

Recently, a number of banks have launched various forms of activities around reducing consumer loan interest rates. According to the Shell financial reporter, the current bank consumer loan interest rate is generally above 4.5% without discount, but after the concession, the interest rate is generally as low as 3.4%. In addition, the interest rate of consumer loans of individual banks can be as low as 2%.

According to the Shell financial reporter, the current consumer loan interest rate of a city commercial bank in the eastern region can be as low as 1.1%. According to the relevant announcement of the city commercial bank, some specially invited customers have the opportunity to enjoy 1.1% (simple interest) annualized interest rate coupons, and during December, a limited-time seckill 2.8% fixed interest rate coupon activity will be launched for new customers, but the coupons are limited to 5 per day.

A city commercial bank in Beijing has also launched a "group discount" activity, which provides preferential interest rates for specific groups of people (employees of state-owned enterprises and public institutions), and the interest rate can be as low as 2.98%.

"Our bank also has preferential consumer loans. The relevant credit officer of a joint-stock bank in Beijing told the Shell financial reporter that after receiving the coupon, the interest rate of the consumer loan can be as low as about 3.4%, but this is mainly for some high-quality customers identified by the bank.

At the end of each year, it is very common for bank consumer loan interest rates to attract customers through preferential methods, but this year, some bank interest rates have fallen to the "freezing point", and it is not common for deposit interest rates to be basically the same or even inverted. At present, the listed interest rate of 3-year time deposit of major banks is 2.2%, and the interest rate of 3-year time deposit products of some banks remains above 2.6%.

A bank insider told the Shell financial reporter that the ultra-low consumer loan interest rates of some banks are more of a "gimmick", because the audience involved is not large, so the ultra-low interest rate will not become a mainstream phenomenon, and it is not sustainable.

"But finance is not a fast-moving consumer goods, but a risky product, so it is worth thinking about whether this kind of promotion through ultra-low interest rates, grouping and other means of promotion is worth considering. The above-mentioned bankers pointed out that the essence of bank loans is based on the needs of customers for consumer credit, rather than promoting through low-price strategies when there is no demand, which increases bank risks and disrupts market pricing to a certain extent.

Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the financial market department of Everbright Bank, also believes that the ultra-low consumer loan interest rates of some banks are more of a means for banks to market and acquire customers, in order to increase customer stickiness. However, bank lending should also focus on soundness and sustainability, and banks should avoid irrational price wars.

In addition, the continuous decline in consumer credit interest rates also reflects to a certain extent that the current bank consumer finance has entered the stage of "intensive cultivation" of "maturity and steady progress" from the previous period of "horse racing" and "savage growth".

An insider of a bank in the eastern region revealed to the Shell financial reporter that the original customer acquisition channel of bank consumer credit is now "out of order", and the cost of customer acquisition is high but the quality of customer acquisition has declined. In his opinion, it is an attempt to attract customers or banks through low prices.

The Boston Consulting Group also pointed out in a recent report that China's consumer finance has entered an era of stock management characterized by "slow growth in customer penetration and improvement in the value of a single customer". The era of high growth in China's consumer finance has also come to an end. In the future, the bank's consumer finance business should deepen the value of existing customers, strengthen risk capabilities, expand the sinking market, and make early arrangements to grasp the migration opportunities of customer groups.

The interest rate on corporate loans continued to fall, and the interest rate on individual products dropped to about 2%.

"Since the beginning of this year, the competition for corporate customers has become more fierce among banks, and it has often happened that they 'leverage' customers through low prices. A credit person from a state-owned bank in Beijing told the Shell financial reporter that the bank's credit interest rate for "specialized, special and new" enterprises can reach as low as 2.8%.

In addition, according to the person in charge of credit of a joint-stock bank in Beijing, the comprehensive interest rate of the supply chain guarantee products that the bank recently cooperated with an enterprise can be as low as 1.9%. "This project is for the enterprise to guarantee the upstream and downstream enterprises, and for the upstream and downstream enterprises to waive the guarantee fee. At the same time, banks have further lowered their credit rates, so the composite interest rate for small businesses has fallen significantly. ”

Zhou Maohua pointed out that the reduction of the comprehensive financing cost of the bank's support for the real economy is also the implementation of the relevant spirit of the financial regulatory authorities. At present, the mainland economy is still in the process of recovery, and it will take time for the recovery of physical financing demand to become strong, and at the same time, this year's credit supply is significantly higher, so the competition for high-quality assets by banks at the end of the year will be more intense.

Another relevant person in charge of the bank pointed out that unlike the low interest rate of consumer credit, the decline in the interest rate of corporate customers is not only related to the supply and demand of credit, but also related to the improvement of the actuarial level of the bank itself.

Due to the relatively large amount of corporate customers and the more diversified business needs, banks can support the real economy through low interest rates while their comprehensive income is not too bad. For example, after setting up an account in a bank, an enterprise can also generate non-interest income such as international business, and the settlement business can also provide low-interest deposits for the bank and reduce the bank's comprehensive debt cost.

It is worth noting that high-quality corporate customers have always been an important target for banks to "get off to a good start" at the end of the year and the beginning of the following year. However, this year's situation is different, and a number of banking insiders told the Shell financial reporter that compared with previous years, the end of the year is much faster, and they will not wait until January next year to lend.

In fact, on the one hand, banks are trying to retain high-quality customers, and on the other hand, they are also implementing the previous requirements of "focusing on strengthening the balanced provision of credit, and taking into account the provision of credit in the second two months of this year and the beginning of next year".

Some people in the industry pointed out that the above requirements were put forward at a forum of financial institutions jointly held by the three departments not long ago, that is, it is hoped that the "good start" in January or the big loan months such as March and June will not be too violent, and the "small months" of loans will be moderately smoothed forward, so as to enhance the stability of credit growth and enhance the stability of economic recovery and development.

Wang Yifeng, chief analyst of the financial industry at Everbright Securities, expects that in the fourth quarter of 2023, the credit will exceed 23 trillion yuan this year, an increase of about 1.5 trillion yuan over last year, under the condition that the credit allocation will not decrease, and will be flat or slightly more than the same as last year. In the fourth quarter, the fluctuation of loan disbursement volume was significantly weaker than that in the first three quarters, and the pace of disbursement became more stable. In 2024, the total amount of credit issuance will be "moderate, the pace will be stable, and the efficiency will be improved", and the fluctuation of new loans is expected to narrow between quarters and months.

Banks' net interest margins remain under pressure, but marginal pricing of loans may not fall significantly

Since the beginning of this year, bank credit interest rates have continued to fall, and the financial regulatory authorities have twice guided banks to adjust deposit interest rates to make room for credit interest rates to fall. Looking ahead to next year, will bank rates continue to fall?

Wang Yifeng believes that the marginal pricing pressure of bank loans will be narrowed in 2024, and the centralized repricing of existing loans, especially at the beginning of the year, will have a certain impact on the interest rate spread in the first quarter of 2024, but there is still a lot of room for debt cost control, and policies such as deposit interest rate cuts will promote the improvement of debt costs better than in 2023. "Next year, the marginal pricing of bank loans will no longer fall sharply, the control of debt costs will be strengthened, and the pressure on net interest margin will be relatively reduced. ”

In addition, as for whether the policy rate will fall next year, Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, pointed out that this will mainly depend on the macroeconomic situation, so this possibility cannot be completely ruled out.

Wang Qing believes that the Central Economic Work Conference in December requires that in 2024, it is necessary to continue to "promote the steady and moderate decline of comprehensive social financing costs", and domestic prices will be at a low level for a period of time in the future, and the Fed's turn to interest rate cuts in 2024 will further reduce the constraints on the flexible operation of domestic monetary policy.

Beijing News Shell Financial Reporter Jiang Fan Editor Chen Li Proofreader Jia Ning