A-shares will be very prosperous next year? Should IPOs be suspended? Liu Jipeng, Guan Qingyou, and Deng Haiqing talked about A-shares

Towards the end of the year, A-shares once again started a 3,000-point defense battle. At this critical juncture, the trend of the market tugs at the heartstrings of hundreds of millions of investors. At this juncture full of challenges and opportunities, countless investors are nervous and focused on this financial battle without gunpowder. How should the capital market help build a financial power? Should the current controversial refinancing and IPOs be stopped? Should financing be the core or investors-centric? As a retail investor, should we hold our ground or leave the market in a rout?

Liu Jipeng, Dean of the Capital and Finance Research Institute of China University of Political Science and Law, Deng Haiqing, Deputy General Manager and Chief Economist of AVIC Fund, Guan Qingyou, Dean and Chief Economist of the Institute of Financial Research, and Zhang Tao, Deputy Editor-in-Chief of Phoenix.com, collided ideas from multiple dimensions such as retail investors, sellers, and policies on the above hot topics.

"The world's most developed short-selling mechanism, A-shares, has all been used, and we should change it"

This year, the Central Financial Work Conference put forward the requirement of "accelerating the construction of a financial power as the goal at present and in the future", which is also the first time that "building a financial power" has appeared at the financial work conference. In terms of the capital market, how should we help build a financial power?

Liu Jipeng, Dean of the Institute of Capital and Finance, China University of Political Science and Law

Liu Jipeng believes that this needs to be solved from two angles: increasing the supply of capital and the supply of the system.

Talking about why the supply of the system is increased, Liu Jipeng bluntly said that the important reason why China's stock market has hovered at 3,000 points for 16 consecutive years is the problem of the system.

Liu Jipeng said that China's stock market has the most backward production relations and the most developed trading methods - the most backward production relations are "95% of the investors in A-shares are retail investors", and the most developed trading methods include "our funds are now all contract funds", and also include "the world's most developed short-selling mechanism A-shares are basically all used, 300 transactions per second, high-frequency trading, quantitative trading".

When "the most backward relations of production" and "the most developed mode of exchange" are in the same market, very serious problems arise. Liu Jipeng said, for example, "Our funds are all contract funds now, but the biggest feature of contract funds is that there are no constraints, so there is a phenomenon that the fund has lost more than 23 billion yuan and the management agency has charged 3.3 billion yuan." We need to reflect on whether we have been able to cultivate ethical and high-tech institutions in such a short period of time. ”

As for the problem of the short-selling mechanism, Liu Jipeng bluntly said, "In just over 30 years, the world's most developed short-selling mechanism A-shares have basically been used, 300 transactions per second, high-frequency trading, quantitative trading, the core problem is unfairness, most of the 95% of retail investors do not have such means, we should change." ”

Liu Jipeng further stressed that in order to grasp the main contradiction of this system, we can consider stopping it first, because it is unfair and not suitable for China.

As for the issue of increasing capital supply, Liu Jipeng explained that although this year's M2 is likely to exceed 300 trillion yuan, at least 290 trillion yuan, and the annual financing amount is also more than 33 trillion yuan, it seems that there is a lot of money, but it is idling.

"The whole currency is equal to the base currency plus the currency multiplier, the currency multiplier is the loan down to invest, consumption, and change into the next round of deposits, deposits into loans, we conservatively estimated last year that the currency ratio is 8 times, in such a context, we have too much short-term monetary funds, and the long-term capital supply is small. ”

In order to solve the problem of increasing the supply of long-term capital, Liu Jipeng suggested that institutions such as Huijin, China Investment Corporation, Guoxin, and Social Security should play an exemplary role.

"The traders of the main body of the market are retail investors, which is a basic national condition of the stock market"

In this dialogue, the topic of retail investor protection was the focus of the three panelists.

For example, Guan Qingyou, president and chief economist of the Institute of Financial Studies

Guan Qingyou first mentioned three points of consensus, the first point is "we are a retail market, 200 million retail investors, 400 million accounts, the main body of the market traders are retail investors, this is the basic national condition of the stock market." Second, he said, "our listed companies are indeed different from mature economies, because the development stage is different, basically most of them are dominant."

On the third point, he mentioned, "A-shares are not very different from other mature markets in terms of mechanism. For example, it is easy for us to go long, but it is difficult to go short. There are also many trading mechanisms that we have been discussing but have not implemented, such as the issue of T+0."

Deng Haiqing, deputy general manager and chief economist of AVIC Fund

In Guan Qingyou's view, the solution to the problem of today's capital market lies not in a specific incision, but in a concept, "the reform goal of the capital market should really be people-centered, this is not a slogan, but the interests of ordinary investors need to be truly taken into account."

When talking about investor protection, Deng Haiqing said that public funds should become the voice of the poor. In his view, retail investors have not been adequately protected in China's capital market, or have been neglected in the past system design, largely because we have mainly imitated and copied Wall Street's system in the past in terms of top-level institutional design. However, Wall Street does not have the concept of retail investors, which leads to the insufficient protection of retail investors in China's capital market, as well as the inherent flaws and shortcomings of the relevant system.

Liu Jipeng mentioned that the problem of a dominant share is the unfairness to retail investors, "there is no stock market in the world like China, 3,900 private listed companies, husbands and wives, brothers, fathers and sons almost the largest shareholders account for more than 50%, why can't this problem be one-size-fits-all, our capital market is to cultivate modern companies, not to cultivate a generation or a second generation of family businesses, so in this context, the largest shareholder of newly listed companies is limited to 30%. ”

At the same time, Liu Jipeng pointed out that it is necessary to develop the independent director system. "In China, the independent directors hired by the board of directors often do not have access to the major shareholders themselves, which leads to discrimination against retail investors, the owners have no right to speak, and they have to take risks, and then they are not protected in reality. ”

On the question of whether or not to suspend an IPO? Liu Jipeng said that the issue of an IPO is quite complicated at present, and it is not necessarily necessary to use the method of suspension. Liu Jipeng explained that there is no institutional guarantee for the current IPO tightening, which can be tightened this year and relaxed next year. "In this case, everyone also wants to see a more real hard move. For example, to limit the shareholding ratio of the largest shareholder, it is necessary to form a policy that echoes from top to bottom. ”

In addition, regarding the current situation of the stock market continuing to fall, Liu Jipeng proposed, "In the current short-selling mechanism, such as refinancing, why not stop it first? South Korea can stop it, what is the situation of our stock market today, why not first grasp the main contradiction and make the stock market up." ”

"China's capital market will be prosperous in 2024"

Talking about the current trend of the stock market, Guan Qingyou said, "Don't stare at 3,000 points, the main thing is that 3,000 points is no longer enough to reflect the current basic characteristics." He stressed that the top priority is to discuss the balance between the speed of IPO and the speed of delisting, "This is an issue that has been discussed before the full implementation of the registration system, and the speed of the exit is fast."

In Guan Qingyou's view, "The registration system is a very good thing, but it does have a premise, the first one, it has to be punished harshly." Second, it is necessary to balance delisting and IPO. Now basically all relevant enterprises have seen the east wind of the registration system, and we have also suggested that we must make good use of the listed capital market in many places, it is easy to be unbalanced, and it will be more unbalanced than before, so the top priority must be to explore this issue, that is, the relationship between listing and delisting. ”

Deng Haiqing believes that every bear market in China's capital market has a benefit, which will expose all the problems very thoroughly and provide an environment and conditions for reform. "So I think China's capital market will be very prosperous in 2024, and in addition to the recovery of China's economy, these institutional reforms should become a plus point for the bull market in 2024, rather than a negative asset. ”

Regarding the bear market, he gave another way of understanding: without the bear market, there will be no in-depth reform of China's capital market, because every bear market in the Chinese market has benefits and can expose problems.

Deng Haiqing bluntly said that he is now most confident in China's A-shares. On the one hand, the current bear market in the stock market has exposed very many problems, so we have very high expectations for the introduction of systematic planning and reform of China's stock market capital market in the future. On the other hand, China's economy continues to recover positively, which will help solve a series of problems accumulated due to the loss of income during the epidemic in the past three years.

As for how to boost investor confidence, Liu Jipeng believes that the first is to do a good job in supervision, to do a good job in delisting-based supervision, and second, to do a good job in planning.

Liu Jipeng said that now the three exchanges are competing on the financing side, so an interest group has been formed on the financing side. This interest group is centered on listed companies, and also includes law firms, accounting firms, and appraisal agencies led by securities firms. "They all think that listed companies are their own gods, and they will lose and prosper, and the price of IPOs is pushed so high, and there are all shadows of institutions here. ”

Liu Jipeng suggested that the three exchanges should have basic norms for the number of IPOs and the amount of financing according to the balance of supply and demand every year, "Only when these are done well, can the confidence of shareholders be generated, and the wealth effect will be there." ”