Germany was the first country in Europe to institutionalize technology forecasting, and since then European governments have carried out technology forecasting activities. In 2019, Germany launched the third round of technology forecasting, focusing on technological and social development in the 30s of the 21st century, judging the changes in German social values, new issues and trends in the future, and evaluating issues related to education and research. The analysis of the organizational and implementation characteristics, work content and research methods of the third round of technology forecasting in Germany can provide reference for China's technology forecasting work. China's technology forecasting should be strengthened in terms of "big forecast concept", "big forecast system", forecast methods and application of forecast results.
In today's world, technological innovation is advancing by leaps and bounds, digitalization is accelerating, and people's lifestyles, ways of working, and social structures are changing rapidly. Scientifically predicting future social needs and technological trends, and selecting key core future technologies have become the key to seeking new national competitive advantages and cultivating new social and economic momentum. As early as the 17th century, some researchers analyzed the size of the future population of England and London for the first time through the prediction method, and then after many years of development, the prediction of future technology was gradually developed in the United States, and the "technology forecasting" appeared, and was widely used in the development of the US Air Force and Navy science and technology plans in the 40s of the 20th century. In 1970, Japan carried out technology forecasting based on the Delphi survey, and in the early 90s of the 20th century, the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy released the National Key Technology Report. Scholars in China have followed up and studied the situation of technology forecasting abroad, mainly in Japan and South Korea. Jian Nanhong compared the key technology plans of the United States, Japan, and EU countries in the early period, and Tan Kaiming et al. studied the fourth national technology forecasting method in South Korea. German technology forecasting research began in the 80s of the 20th century, and in 1993, Germany followed Japan's lead in carrying out the first technology forecasting activity, and then gradually formed its own independent methodology system. Zhao Changgen focused on the Delphi method used in the four technological forecasts in Germany in the eighties and nineties of the twentieth century, and Peng Fanjia et al. took German nanotechnology as an example to study the German technology prediction method. After the 21st century, Cuhls Kerstin et al. of the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation conducted research on the second round of technology forecasting methodology in Germany. In contrast, the third round of German technology forecasts has been less tracked.
Since 2019, the third round of technology forecasting in Germany has focused on the technological and social development of the 30s of the 21st century, using horizon scanning and other methods to make judgments on the changes in German social values, new issues and trends in the future, and evaluate issues related to education and research. In the process of the implementation of the third round of technology forecasting in Germany, innovative explorations have been made in terms of working system and forecasting methods, and its latest forecasting concepts and practices have good enlightenment and reference significance for China's technology forecasting work.
1 The basic situation of the third round of technical forecasting in Germany
Germany carried out two rounds of technical forecasting in 2007-2009 and 2012-2014, respectively. The main goal of the first round of technology forecasting is to identify key technology areas for future priority development, and the second round of technology forecasting mainly focuses on social challenges and scientific and technological development trends before 2030, and identifies nine "innovation sprouts" in 2030. From 2019 to 2023, the third round of technology forecasts in Germany mainly looks forward to the development trend of German social values, society and technology after 2030, and proposes key development areas for education and research. Compared with the previous two rounds of technology forecasting, the third round of technology forecasting in Germany focuses more on a broad research horizon of social needs, in-depth public communication and interaction, and a systematic methodology.
1.1 Organizational Implementation Framework
The third round of technology forecasts for Germany is being implemented by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and aims to look ahead to the technological and social development of Germany beyond 2030. The work was officially launched in September 2019 and is expected to end in 2023, with a total budget of 6.5 million euros arranged by the government. Compared with the first two rounds of technology forecasting in Germany since the 21st century, the organization and implementation of the third round of technology forecasting reflects two major characteristics: one is to further improve the systematic organizational work mechanism, while continuing to play the strength of experts in the field, pay attention to the role of enterprise think tanks, and second, through the operation of the exhibition hall, to achieve offline face-to-face interaction between technology forecasting and the public.
The German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, relying on social think tanks and strategic experts in various fields, has set up the "Office for the Future" and the "Future Group" to jointly promote the implementation of the third round of technology forecasting, as shown in Figure 1. The "Office for the Future" is a two-think tank that includes Prognos AG, a European economic research consulting company, and Z-PUNKT Management Consulting, which is responsible for identifying new topics and trends for the future development of German society and conducting research on German social values. The "Future Group" is composed of 17 strategic experts from various subject areas and is responsible for evaluating and selecting key topics for education and research and providing advice to the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. Cornelia Daheim, a technology forecaster and entrepreneur, co-chairs the Future Panel with Professor Armin Grunwald, a physicist, philosopher and technology evaluation expert.
The third round of technology forecasting in Germany places special emphasis on public participation and interaction with society. The German Federal Government has set up the Futurium exhibition hall to provide the public with an interactive physical place to engage in dialogue about the future. The "House of the Future" exhibition hall was opened in September 2019 and is operated by Futurium GmbH. The company is financed by shareholder donations and institutional funding from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, in which the company holds 86 percent of the shares.
1.2 Main work
The third round of technology forecasts in Germany attempts to look forward to German society after 2030, such as how German society will develop in the future under different values, what changes will occur in German society under the general trends of digitalization and globalization, and what aspects will be focused on in future education and scientific research. The third round of technology forecasts in Germany focuses on social values, new issues and trends, and issues related to education and research.
The first is to study the changes in the values of German society, which will be implemented by the "Office for the Future". The German Federal Ministry of Education and Research believes that prevailing values are instructive for the development of society, and it is therefore necessary to study how German values will change in the future. Focusing on possible social scenarios and associated value models, the study examines the future of values for the German people through social surveys and scenario analysis.
The second is to find new topics and trends in the future, and the "Office of the Future" is responsible for implementation. Technological innovation will follow a certain life cycle, in the embryonic stage of technology, the volume and growth rate of papers or patent publications are relatively low, as innovation enters the applied research stage in the life cycle, the number and growth rate of publications are increasing, and with the development of life cycle, technology gradually enters the public domain, such as newspapers, business and mass media. Therefore, new topics and trends in the future can be discovered through horizon scanning and expert survey methods, combined with the megatrends of global change. The German Federal Ministry of Education and Research has outlined a list of 112 topics for the future technological and social development of Germany, including political, economic, socio-cultural, technological and eco-geographical aspects.
The third is the evaluation of education and research-related issues, which will be implemented by the "Future Group". Combined with the functions and concerns of the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, the "Future Group" further selects and condenses new topics and trends on the future to form a key focus on future topics, mainly related to the future economic form, the establishment of trust mechanisms in the digital economy, and the integration of technology and biology.
2 Germany's approach and progress in finding new issues and trends for the future
German technology forecasters believe that most of the social and technological developments in recent years are emerging phenomena, and they exist in the interaction between various parts of the social system, such as the interaction between technological push and demand pull. The third round of technology forecasting in Germany mainly uses the horizon scanning method, system analysis method and trend analysis method, etc., through a wide range of topic scanning and interdisciplinary team research and analysis, to identify new issues and trends that represent future development.
2.1 Searching for new topics and trends based on horizon scanningThe "Office of the Future" uses the horizon scanning method to collect a large number of topics related to the third round of technology forecasting. Horizon scanning is mainly implemented from three aspects. The first is the basic level, using web crawlers, public surveys and other methods to scan from the aspects of politics, economy, social culture, technology, ecological geography and legal factors; the second is the technical level, mainly using web crawlers and other methods to search for the development of new technologies in a targeted manner; the third is the social level, mainly using big data literature analysis and other methods to scan social and cultural development and other social topics. Horizon Scan covers a wide range of topics, including forward-looking research, websites and newsletters, technology research, technology roadmaps, global scenarios, science fiction literature, international conferences, bestseller lists, social media, podcasts and technology, entertainment, design (TED) talks, and projects already underway with Future Office partners. The large-scale topic scanning ensures the diversity and representativeness of the topic sources, and provides a sufficient information basis and selection basis for finding new topics and trends.
2.2 Criteria for the identification of new topics and trendsThe Office of the Future organizes an interdisciplinary expert workshop to carry out a multi-stage evaluation based on the topic of horizon scanning, and finally selects and finalizes the list of topics that describe the future society. The topics and trends selected should take into account factors such as different subject areas, different sources and different sources, frequency of occurrence and social relevance. Some issues are known to the public and visible or developing in daily life, some issues have entered the public eye but have not yet received due attention, and some issues are known by professionals and may enter the public eye, and all selected topics must have a high degree of social relevance. As a result, the "Office of the Future" categorizes the selected topics according to their degree of public attention, stage of development, and social relevance.
2.3 Finding progress on new issues and trends
In July 2020, the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research published the first list of topics for the third round of technical forecasts, with a total of 50 topics for insight into the possible future of German society. After the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research carried out a second round of horizon scanning, according to the situation at the time, and published the second and third lists of topics, containing 62 new topics, for a total of 112 topics published in three times. The list of issues is presented in a uniform structure. The structure table summarizes the current development of the topic, expounds the degree of social consensus of the topic, discusses its potential future development trends and application scenarios, and puts forward its expected impact on the future society in the development process.
3 The description of the future society in the third round of technology forecasts in Germany
The third round of technology forecasts in Germany describes the future society of Germany beyond 2030 by publishing 112 topics. The topics cover science and technology, economy, politics, ecology and social culture, and are divided into four categories according to the characteristics of the topics: conflict, trend, emerging and weak signal, showing a new perspective on the future.
3.1 Conflict issues
In the third round of German technology forecasting, 15 conflict issues were set up out of 112 topics to show the multiple impacts that the emergence of such new topics may have on society in the future. Conflict issues involve contradictory or antagonistic topics, which can provide a multi-faceted analytical perspective on future development, and may also represent a paradigm shift in society. Looking ahead to German society beyond 2030, the invention and application of technology will not only improve people's living standards, but also bring many new problems. In the economic field, the development of new technologies will increase the demand for key raw materials, leading to the conflict between supply and demand of key raw materials; new technologies will promote the formation of a digital society and bring about new social competition; new technologies will prolong the life span of human beings, and more resources will be needed accordingly, bringing pressure on social resources. In the political sphere, the use of human augmentation technology may not only bring convenience to life, but also cause social division, and the development of the Internet, while connecting the whole world, is also showing the trend of regional networks. In the ecological field, along with the extinction of some species, the ecological balance is affected. In the socio-cultural sphere, the emergence of new things is testing society's tolerance for ambiguity, and animal-human genome editing has an impact on human ethics.
3.2 Trending Issues
Germany's third round of technical forecasts sorted out 41 trend topics, accounting for 36.6%. Trending topics are topics that have emerged and will be sustainable. It is not cyclical, empirically predictable, and has a history of at least 10 years.
Looking ahead to German society beyond 2030, there are many trending topics in the field of science and technology. For example, e-sports will develop rapidly, new gene-based vaccines will appear, digital skills will be an important skill for employment, drones will be widely used, electronic products will be miniaturized, the Internet of Things will begin to be popularized, blockchain technology will be widely used, donor organs will be developed, there will be new breakthroughs in the diagnosis of rare diseases, two-dimensional nanomaterials will be widely used, and the food of the future world will be diversified.
In the German social and economic field after 2030, a cashless society will become possible, and 3D printing will be widely used in the construction industry to build large-scale buildings. In the political sphere, Arctic territorial claims will be in the spotlight, and new approaches to water management will be promoted. In the ecological realm, the extinction of some insects is accelerating, climate change is causing migration problems, extreme weather will become more frequent, heat-tolerant cities will develop, and green IT (the Xi of using computer and network resources efficiently) will become the trend of the future. In the field of social culture, topics such as AI ethics, tired society and lonely society will attract much attention, horticultural cemeteries may become a trend, deepfake technology will bring a crisis of trust, the influence of Chinese culture will be strengthened, and non-linear life patterns may become the mainstream in the future.
3.3 Emerging issues
Germany's third round of technology forecasting sorted out 49 emerging topics, accounting for 43.8%. Emerging topics are those that are developing, or emerging that may be important for research and education policy in the future. Emerging issues are often latent issues that have the potential to evolve into trending issues in the future.
In German society after 2030, there are many emerging topics in the field of science and technology. Emerging things such as micro-artificial intelligence, analog computers, post-lithium-ion batteries, self-driving cars, high-tech buildings, quantum computers, and nano-3D printers will emerge and be applied to life, digital twin worlds will emerge, and new breakthroughs will be made in microbiome decipherment. In the political sphere, there will be something new such as the new space economy. In the ecological realm, carbon dioxide may be considered a resource. In the socio-cultural field, topics such as population peaks and data trust are involved.
3.4 Weak Signal IssuesThe third round of German technical forecasts sorted out 7 weak signal issues to indicate the germ that is likely to emerge. Harry Igor Ansoff, the founder of Strategic Management, defines a weak signal as "an inaccurate early indication of an impending valid event." "Emerging issues" may be inferred from weak signal issues. In German society after 2030, the application of face recognition technology is mainly the issue of weak signals in the field of science and technology. In the political realm, the emergence of a new organizational model, the Climate Club, could be an effective way to combat climate change. In the field of ecology, research on the next epidemic X may be needed in the future. In the socio-cultural realm, both intelligent regulation and gender-specific medicine are likely to become emerging topics in the future.
The third round of German technology forecasts describes new topics and trends in the future, showing what is possible, is happening and will continue to develop in the fields of science and technology, economics, politics, ecology and socio-culture. It focuses on trend and emerging issues, taking into account weak signal issues, and discusses conflict issues brought about by development, providing a multi-faceted perspective for thinking about the future and providing ideas for better adapting to the future society.
4 Reflections and Revelations
The third round of technology forecasting in Germany is quite distinctive in terms of work objectives, organizational forms and working methods, and also has certain enlightenment and reference significance for China's technology forecasting work.
4.1 Technical forecasting should establish a "big forecast view"
The third round of technology forecasting in Germany places technology forecasting in the overall situation of social development for overall consideration and system design. The German technology forecast is mainly to provide the public with a description of future technology and social development, including not only looking for technological development trends, but also researching and discussing the changes in future social values and the needs of future social development. For a long time, China's technology forecasting work has focused on the investigation and analysis of technology development trends, and has paid little attention to changes in social needs. In the future, it is necessary to establish a "big forecast concept" of technology forecasting, pay attention to the interaction and influence between technology trends and social needs, strengthen the analysis of the vision of the future society in the forecasting work, and combine technology forecasting with social development for research.
4.2 Establish a "big prediction system" for technical forecasting
The third round of technology forecasting in Germany established a systematic organizational structure with a focus on the participation of all stakeholders. The "Office of the Future" is mainly based on the research of social trends based on corporate think tanks, the "Future Group" includes strategic research experts from 17 fields to select key development areas through seminars and other means, and the "Future House" exhibition hall provides a physical space for public dialogue. China's technology forecasting system should also strengthen the design of the system, give full play to the role of various social think tanks and experts in various fields, and reach a consensus on future social development and technological development within the scope of more technology forecasting institutions and a wider range of experts. At the same time, it can also cooperate with physical exhibition halls such as the China Science and Technology Museum to launch future-oriented technology prediction scenarios and interact and communicate with the wider public.
4.3 Technology forecasting methods need to keep pace with the times
The results of technology foresight are constantly changing, and how to maintain the continuity and iteration of foresight activities is also the future research direction. The three rounds of technology forecasting in Germany all adopted a cyclical methodological framework, which combined the methods of expert systems thinking, trend analysis, scenario analysis and innovation and technical analysis (ITA) on the basis of the Delphi survey method and the horizon scan method. On the basis of optimizing the Delphi survey method, China's technology forecasting work should strengthen the application of scenario analysis, vision analysis and other methods, strengthen the role of informatization, intelligence and artificial intelligence in information collection and screening, and strengthen the exchange and sharing of technology forecasting methods and results among different institutions, so as to jointly improve the scientificity of technology forecasting.
4.4 The results of technical prediction serve the public
The results of German technology forecasting not only support the research and decision-making needs of government departments, but also serve the public in various ways. The new topics of the German Technology Forecast Selection are available online to the public and take into account their views. The prediction results will be presented to the public in stages through image pictures, videos, etc., and disseminated to the public through the organization of expert meetings, video interviews and video seminars. In addition, the German government has invested in the construction of the "House of the Future" exhibition hall to enhance the interaction with the public on the topic of the future. While strengthening the national science and technology management decision-making service, China's technology forecast should also incorporate social needs into the research objectives, and provide information for the development of all walks of life and various enterprise decision-making through the research and analysis of future social development trends and technological development trends.
Disclaimer: This article is transferred from the Chinese Academy of Science and Technology Development Strategy, the original authors are Sun Yunjie, Yuan Like, Chen Ping,. The content of the article is the original author's personal point of view, and this official account is compiled/reprinted only to share and convey different views, if you have any objections, please contact us!
Transferred from丨Chinese Academy of Science and Technology Development Strategy
Author丨Sun Yunjie, Yuan Like, Chen Ping
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