#文章首发挑战赛#
Text: Xiao Peng's brilliant notes
Editor|Xiao Peng's splendor
[Preface]
2023 has been a year of uncertainty and change, both for countries and individuals, with the impact of the aftermath of the pandemic, changes in monetary policy, and various fluctuations in energy commodities continuing to affect the global economy.
Of course, there are two sides to everything, there are risks and opportunities, and the promotion of multilateral trade cooperation, digitalization and innovation has also driven the development of the global economy to a certain extent.
In the IMF's October economic outlook, global economic growth is expected to slow to 3.0% from 3.5% last year, and the GDP of large countries has become a hot topic of discussion.
In the available statistics, Germany, as the largest economy in the European Union, accounts for 28% of the total economy of the euro area, with 27.38 trillion yuan.
India's total economic output is 22.73 trillion yuan, so what is the total GDP of China, the United States, and Japan? It has been reported that Germany is even going to surpass Japan to become the third largest economy, but what is Japan's economic development?
What does a country's GDP represent?
GDP has always been an important indicator to measure the degree of economic development and comprehensive strength of a country or region, and understanding the development and changes of GDP in various countries also plays an important role and significance in the planning of national economic development.
It is undeniable that in the past few decades, the United States has been the world's largest economy, and its economic development has also led to the development and progress of the global economy to a large extent.
Under the cooperation of the globalized economy and multilateral trade, the economies of many developing countries have also achieved rapid development and progress, and the growth of domestic consumption and investment has made great breakthroughs.
For example, India's stock market has even hit a record high, with a total market capitalization of about $4 trillion, and its GDP even reached $338.51 million last year, surpassing the United Kingdom to rank fifth in the world, second only to Japan and Germany.
In recent years, the average annual GDP growth rate has exceeded 7%, which can be said to be one of the important engines of global growth, while some developed countries are also facing some bottlenecks in economic growth.
For example, Japan, one of the world's three largest economies, has been at a low level in recent years, while some countries in Europe are also facing the problem of insufficient economic growth momentum.
[Germany overtakes Japan to become the third largest economy?]
Germany has long been known as the "locomotive of the European economy", and although its growth rate has been slower than that of other industrial powers, it has surpassed Japan to become the world's third largest economy in the first half of this year's GDP statistics.
Germany's per capita GDP has always been much higher than Japan's, with an economy of 27.38 trillion yuan, and its economic growth has always relied on exports.
German automobiles, machinery and chemicals are very popular in the global market, and although the Second World War brought great impact and damage to the German economy, its industrial base is still very stable.
Through the consolidation and reopening of the previous industrial facilities, the country has greatly promoted the progress of related industrial production fields and successfully achieved the upgrading of its own industry.
They are mainly based on the real industry, especially the high value-added industries we mentioned earlier, in the global smartphone market, the income of manufacturing chips is much higher than that of manufacturing mobile phone cases.
As one of the first industrialized countries in the world, Germany has a natural advantage in this regard, which can quickly occupy the upstream market, and they have always been cautious about the financial industry, and economic growth will be more inclined to invest in the real industry.
In the first half of 2023, Germany's GDP will be 2,180.5 billion US dollars, and Japan's GDP will be 2,138.4 billion US dollars, officially surpassing Japan with an advantage of 50 billion US dollars.
Part of the reason for this pattern is the "statistical effect", because the development of GDP is inclusive of inflationary GDP, so its economic power is nominally greater than that of Japan.
On the other hand, it is also related to the development of exchange rates, the International Monetary Fund generally converts the GDP of countries into dollars, and the euro has also increased from less than one dollar to 1.07 US dollars.
The Japanese currency has been depreciating in recent years, so the result is that GDP has been increasing in yen terms, but it has shrunk in dollar terms.
Of course, it is true that Japan's economy is in a state of deflation, and the number of working people has been decreasing, so it has been in a permanent crisis.
【Rapid growth of the Indian economy】
When it comes to economic growth, we have to mention India, known as the largest Western-style democracy, and it can be said that India is one of the fastest growing countries in recent years.
As the world's largest population base, India has a lot of development potential, such as a huge market, abundant labor force, etc., which have further improved the country's productivity and competitiveness.
In 2020, India's GDP was 2.66 trillion yuan, ranking sixth in the world, behind China, the United States, Japan, Germany, and the United Kingdom.
In the statistics of the first three quarters of this year, India's GDP was 22.73 trillion yuan, although there is still a big gap with the United States and us, but its growth rate has far exceeded that of China and the United States.
In the first three quarters, the GDP growth rate in the United States was 2.5 percent, ours was 5.2 percent, and India was 7.1 percent.
【The world's three largest economies】
The world situation has always been changing rapidly, and the global economic pattern is constantly being restructured, but the three major economies in the world are still the United States, Japan and the mainland.
The economic strength of the United States has always kept it in the first place in the world, and the mainland has been the latecomer, and in recent years, it has become the second largest economy after the United States with its rapid development.
Japan has a well-developed high-tech industry, and although its land area and population are a little small compared to other countries, it has been the world's third-largest economy for many years.
Among the top three economies, the United States and Japan are concentrated in the development of high-tech fields, and their economic composition is very high-end, of course, the service industry and manufacturing are also pillar industries.
Half of the mainland's total economy is also supported by the service industry, and our country's state-owned enterprises contribute the other half.
[China's GDP has jumped]
With a nominal GDP of 129.2 trillion yuan this year, the mainland is a middle- and high-income, developing mixed-society market economy.
We are not only the world's largest manufacturing country, but also the world's largest importer and exporter, foreign exchange reserves are the world's first, and we are in the world's leading position in e-commerce and production.
From 2014 to the present, the mainland's GDP exceeded 120 trillion yuan last year, and on the basis of maintaining the increase in economic aggregate, the per capita GDP has also achieved a new breakthrough.
In terms of its share of the world economy, the mainland's total economic output has risen from 12.3% to 18% in 10 years, and our total trade volume still maintains the world's largest position.
Since the beginning of reform and opening up, the mainland has achieved tremendous and successful breakthroughs in economic development, and the three main economic sectors are industry, service industry, and agriculture.
The largest proportion is industry, which is also the pillar industry of the mainland, although in the rapid urbanization process, the proportion of agriculture is relatively small, but it still occupies the core proportion of the mainland's economic structure.
[U.S. economic growth slows]
The nominal GDP of the United States is 196.7 trillion yuan, ranking first in the world, and its growth in the third quarter achieved an annualized growth rate of 4.9% month-on-month.
In the analysis of relevant professionals, the expenditure on national personal consumption contributed 2.69 percentage points in the third quarter, and the share in exports also increased.
Its economic strength is undeniable, but it is undeniable that the country still faces some risks and challenges economically, such as the inflationary pressures it is facing today.
If this situation is allowed to develop, the purchasing power of consumers and companies will also decline further, and fiscal and monetary policy difficulties may be confronted.
【Japan's Economic Development】
In 1968, Japan's economy recovered and grew dramatically, surpassing West Germany to become the world's second largest economy after the United States.
Later, in 2010, its total economic output was surpassed by the mainland, and Japan, as one of the world's three largest economies, had a nominal GDP of 30.58 trillion yuan this year.
In 2012, the Japanese economy fell into a certain predicament, and although Japan's GDP grew by 10% between 2012 and last year, its GDP fell sharply due to the depreciation of the yen, so when converted into dollars, its GDP showed a significant decline.
The automotive sector, which used to be a pillar of Japan's company, is losing its unique competitive advantage, and the aging of the population is increasing, so its economic development potential is showing a certain bleak trend.
With a series of stimulus policies adopted by the Japanese government, although there is a trend to get out of the deflationary dilemma, it also brings the risk of stagflation, and now its domestic economy is also facing new challenges.
【Conclusion】
In the future, the IMF predicts that by the end of this year, global GDP may reach $10.5 billion, and the United States will continue to maintain its position as the largest economy.
In addition to Germany overtaking Japan to remain third in the world, Italy's economy has also increased, rising two places in the rankings, and Brazil may also be able to replace Russia in the top 10.
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